More than 64 trillion... An economist indicates the risks of the 2024 budget deficit - urgent
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Baghdad today - Baghdad
Today, Thursday (May 23, 2024), economic expert Nabil Al-Marsoumi pointed out the risks of the budget deficit for 2024, amounting to more than 64 trillion dinars.
Al-Marsoumi said in a blog post followed by “Baghdad Today” that “the budget deficit amounted to 64.025 trillion dinars, as the revolving balance in the Ministry of Finance’s account reached 1.571 trillion dinars.”
He added, "The increase in the selling prices of exported crude oil amounts to 16.607 trillion dinars," noting that "remittances deducted from the legal reserve of government banks are equal to 5 trillion dinars."
He explained, "Loans from government banks amounted to 3 trillion dinars," noting that "the discount on treasury transfers at the Central Bank of Iraq amounted to 20.041 trillion dinars."
He pointed out, "National bonds are worth 5 trillion dinars, and total internal borrowing reached 33.041 trillion dinars, and external loans amounted to 12.806 trillion."
Al-Marsoumi pointed out that “many observations were made regarding the budget deficit, including a decrease in the Ministry of Finance’s revolving balance from 23 trillion dinars in the 2023 budget to 1.571 trillion dinars in the 2024 budget.”
Al-Marsoumi stated, “It has been observed that there is a heavy reliance on internal and external borrowing to finance the budget deficit, which exacerbates the size of internal debt, especially which currently stands at 79 trillion dinars, in addition to its negative impact on the cash reserves of the Central Bank of Iraq and other Iraqi banks.”
He explained, “There are three sources in financing the budget deficit, which are deficit financing, internal and external borrowing, and the revolving balance of government accounts,” noting that “using the expected increase in oil revenues amounting to 16.607 trillion dinars to finance the budget deficit is something new because these are supposed to be added.” The expected increase in oil revenues. In this case, the budget will have been built on the assumption of exporting 3.5 million barrels per day at a price of $83 per barrel instead of $70, which is a non-conservative price and full of risks for two reasons. The first is that Iraq’s oil exports are less than 3.5 million barrels per day due to OPEC+ restrictions and the second. The high price of oil adopted by the budget is unrealistic and very optimistic, which may expose the budget to other imbalances as a result of these two assumptions not being met.”
Acting Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mohsen Al-Mandalawi, had referred the schedules of the Federal General Budget Law 2024 to the Parliamentary Finance Committee.
According to a document issued by the Council on the twenty-first of this month and obtained by “Baghdad Today”, “the Acting Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mohs Al-Mandalawi, announced the referral of the schedules of the Federal General Budget Law 2024 to the Parliamentary Finance Committee.”
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