Edmonton Oilers

Draisaitl Delivering
May 9, 2017, 1:19 PM ET [76 Comments]
Matt Henderson
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When Leon Draisaitl was drafted 3rd overall in 2014 Craig MacTavish saw his center of the future. The team was practically giddy as the Sabres called Sam Reinhart’s name 2nd. In pre-draft Oiler season-ticket holder events MacTavish had described Draisaitl as a Kopitar-like player and it was plain to see that the Oiler brass believed this kid could be the key to playing against the big tough centermen of the West.

As history played out, Draisaitl showed that he wasn’t quite ready for the NHL at age 18. The Oilers burned the 1st year of his ELC to find that out. In year two he was very good, picking up a highly respectable 51 points in 72 games. At the WHL level he had dominated and at the NHL he was showing flashes, as well as some major lulls in play. This year, his third as a professional, he broke out.

Draisaitl started the season as a center but his chemistry with McDavid almost demanded that he move to the right wing as a left shooting forward. The fact that he was on his off-wing was off-set by Draisaitl’s own prolific talent. He has a keen ability to protect the puck and pass on the backhand. That ability to protect the puck has been there since day one and no doubt contributed to MacT daydreaming about a time in the future when the big German would even the odds against the Thornton, Kesler, and Getzlafs of the Western Conference.

Given how much of Draisaitl’s future seems to be tied up in the centre position, it may seem odd that he was converted to a winger at all. For that I think we need to look at two things:

1) How much Todd McLellan has used high-end utility wingers in the past.

2) How well Draisaitl performed away from McDavid.

While Todd McLellan served as head coach in San Jose, he very famously converted centers to wingers and back again whenever it served his team best. It wasn’t just season to season or game to game that a C would shift to W and back again, it was within the game itself or even within shifts.

Joe Pavelski’s irregular usage was even noted by the PHWA who forbade members to vote for Pavelski as an All-Star at the center position even though he was a leader in faceoffs for his team. Pavelski would take the draw as it best suited his strength then transition immediately to winger duties and back again. McLellan would move players up and down the line on and off the wing to find chemistry.

So in that context it really isn’t surprising at all that when chemistry between Edmonton’s top offensive players was established that he rode that. And why wouldn’t you? During the final push of the regular season the duo of McDavid and Draisaitl went on matching, lengthy scoring streaks. And even though he played over half of his minutes as McDavid’s winger, Draisaitl still took the 2nd most faceoffs on the team – almost 175 more than McDavid.

For some time during the season it looked like Draisaitl produced roughly as well with McDavid as he did away from McDavid. However, you can be sure that the final 20 or so games killed that claim. Here are the With or Without You (WOWY) numbers for Draisaitl with and without McDavid.

Without Connor McDavid 5v5, Leon Draisaitl played 500:42 minutes. He produced 3-12-15 at rate of 1.80 P/60. That rate puts him in the range of guys like Toews, Kane (not the good one), and Marchessault. It’s top 90 among forwards who played at least 750 5v5 minutes. He also had a 47.9% CF and a 44.2% GF. So even though he was producing OK he was getting out-possessed and out-scored during 5v5 play. When he wasn’t with McDavid he was almost exclusively centering his own line so we take all of this info as the proxy for his stats as a center.

With Connor McDavid 5v5, Leon Draisaitl played 670:45 minutes. He produced 10-15-25 at a rate of 2.24 P/60. This puts him in the range of Forsberge, Kane (the good one), and Tarasenko. It’s top 30 among forwards who have played at least 750 minutes 5v5. He had a 53.7% CF and a 59.4% GF. So he was producing like a star forward while also controlling possession and the team was outscoring the opposition at a rate of 3:2. When he was playing with McDavid, even though he was taking lots of draws, he was playing as a RW.

You can see why the Oilers wanted to play McDavid and Draisaitl together so much. The evidence over 82 games wasn’t so much that Draisaitl “wasn’t ready” to center his own line, so much as it was that the results simply favored not using him there. As a pivot, he did perform at lower levels across the board in key performance indicators like points and possession. He was still a better C than many players in the league, but as a RW he was stupendous.

Against the Ducks, however, the problem is that the team has run into the Kesler-Getzlaf 1-2 punch and they weren’t getting any traction. Nugent-Hopkins, despite being tied for 2nd in shots on goal, has no goals. The 5v5 offense for the RNH line has dried up at the worst possible time. That means if the Ducks could successfully keep McDavid off the scoreboard the scoring threats have been taken away. By converting Draisiatl back to the middle on his own line (while still using RNH to shut down the Ducks), the Ducks are now forced to pick their poison.

It doesn’t hurt that Leon Draisaitl has abused Anaheim his entire career for 13 points in 12 regular season games. This year in the regular season he picked up 8 points in 5 games. So far through 6 playoff games he has 13 points. If there’s any team to use Draisaitl down the middle to spread offense against, it’s Anaheim. The games have looked very different once McLellan moved Draisaitl back down the middle.

The question will still remain how to best use Draisaitl moving forward. I would suggest nobody make a decision based primarily on how the German Gretzky has looked against Anaheim. For whatever reason they always bring out the best possible version of himself. That said, it would be thrilling to see the confidence and scoring ability he has shown through the last 35 games especially brought to his very own line on a permanent basis.