Nashville Predators

Offseason – Day Two - Expansion Draft Thoughts
June 13, 2017, 3:51 PM ET [19 Comments]
Paul McCann
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Today is clean out day for the Predators, they will have end of season meetings and their last press availability today, final pressers for David Poile and Peter Laviolette will be held tomorrow… preseason schedules are being released and we already know the first couple of preseason dates for Nashville…

The preaseason dates that have been released by other teams include a Tuesday doubleheader at Bridgestone Arena on September 19th as the Preds faceoff against the Florida Panthers… we also know about dates with the Tampa Bay Lightning, at Amalie Arena on 9/22, then at Bridgestone Arena on September 30th. I expect dates to be announced with Columbus as well.

At this point, there is no rest for the front office as they immediately shift focus from the Stanley Cup Final to the expansion draft and UFA season. The expansion draft is now a tangible thing and looking at the entire season’s performance of this Nashville Predators team is key information to figuring out two things… what option will Davd Poile select and who gets protected?

So… The expansion draft takes place next Wednesday in Vegas as part of the NHL Awards… let’s look at the options for exposing players for that draft… please keep in mind that the Preds must protect players with no move clauses in their contracts. For Nashville, that is Pekka Rinne.

Option 1 – The Preds can protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goaltender.
or...
Option 2 – The Preds can protect eight skaters and a goaltender.

This is an interesting choice for the Predators and honestly, it depends on David Poile’s ability to make a deal with Vegas GM George McPhee. The conundrum Poile faces has to do with the blueline and his young core of forwards. Unless a deal is in place, I cannot see the Preds GM exposing any of the top four defensemen to the expansion draft, so, that seems to leave the only choice to be option 2.

So let’s go with that option here… on that option, the Predators protect the top four on D. So, what four forwards do you protect? I think there are three that are absolutes… the rest spark a debate… The absolutes are…

Ryan Johansen – An RFA coming off a very good season, especially proving in the playoffs that he is a number one center in this league. While the Predators managed to finish off the Ducks without him, the offense struggled against Pittsburgh in the Final without his playmaking.
Filip Forsberg – Two consecutive 30 goal seasons and a reasonable contract… Do you really think that David Polie will allow McPhee a chance to get his mitts on this player?.
Viktor Arvidsson – Arvy played his way into this position and as an RFA does present a bit of an issue, was last season a fluke or can you expect that kind of production from him consistently? That’s a contract question, he was a sparkplug for this team all season long and shouldn’t be exposed.

That leaves one more slot if you are choosing option 2… so… lets’ go through the options… the chances for exposure assume that no side deal can be made to keep the player from being chosen. Who do you protect?

Colin Wilson - Current contract status – Signed through 2018-19 with a $3.937 million cap hit. Wilson is a past 20 goal scorer and seemed to really be putting it together this past season, unfortunately the injury bug bit, both in the regular season and in the playoffs. Wilson not the “Playoff Colin” we had previously seen. This may be a low risk exposure, especially after his injury plagued season, but his size and capabilities could be too much for Vegas to resist. Chances for exposure – 80%
Craig Smith - Current contract status – Signed through 2019-20 with a $4.25 million cap hit. The 27 yr old forward had a terrible 2016-17 after three consecutive 20+ goal seasons. Smith still has the speed necessary for success in the Laviolette system but his production in the past year has me asking the Viktor Arvidsson question, only with a twist… Was this season a fluke or is it the new normal? Tough call on this one… his speed, hands and experience may be tempting to Vegas. Chances for exposure – 70%
James Neal - Contract status – Signed through 2017-18 with a $5 million cap hit. The 29 year old veteran has scored at least 20 goals in each of his nine NHL seasons, breaking the 30 goal plateau twice, last time in 15-16 and potting 40 in a season as well. One year left at $5 million could be a tempting target for Vegas, especially if they want to use him as trade bait at the trade deadline. I’m not sure the Preds have a replacement for his goal scoring and more especially, his attitude on the ice. Chances for exposure – 50%.
Calle Jarnkrok - Contract status – Signed through 2021-22 with a $2 million cap hit. The 25 year old Swede just finished his third full season in the NHL, this versatile center can be placed up and down the lineup for short periods. This is a player that the Predators do not want to lose, especially with the value contract that he is on. This one is worth a side deal to protect if you leave him exposed. Chances for exposure – 10%
Colton Sissons - Contract status – Signed through 2018-19 with a $0.625 million cap hit. This could be the toughest decision for the Preds to make. It was a hard one before the playoffs, but after Sisson’s coming out party in the playoffs… it’s even harder. Another high value contract for a player that is producing. Chances for exposure – 60%

Other players that I think would draw interest from Vegas include Austin Watson, Miikka Solomaki and Pontus Aberg.

I fully expect a few side deals to help David Poile attempt to direct the desires of George McPhee away from a couple of players. If I am McPhee… I am stacking up as many draft picks as I can in these deals… draft picks spread over the next three – four seasons to really stock the talent pipeline and set his Golden Knights on solid footing. It certainly worked for Poile… he made quite a few deals to take certain players or avoid certain players in the Preds expansion draft back in 1998 and those extra draft picks paid off handsomely.

So, who does the team lose in the expansion draft? I believe side deals will cover Calle Jarnkrok and Colton Sissons. I think the fourth protected forward will be James Neal. That means that I believe both Colin Wilson and Craig Smith will be exposed to the expansion draft and that the Golden Knights will select Craig Smith. His contract status and offensive potential will be too much for Vegas to resist. That would open up a slot for Kevin Fiala who certainly made his statement to this team as a top six player.

Even if Vegas selects Colin Wilson, there are some players developing in the system that are bubbling under being ready to make this lineup… players like Victor Ejdsell, Vlad Kamenev, and Yakov Trenin… Kamanev being the most likely next one ready to take a place in gold.

I expect David Poile’s smarts to be on full display here… as the wheeling and dealing begins in earnest.

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