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Observers: victory over a preacher can only be achieved by addressing extremism
Baghdad / AFP
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Observers: victory over a preacher can only be achieved by addressing extremism
Baghdad / AFP
Despite the announcement by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi on Saturday night that the "end of the war" against an organized organization in the country, this great victory remains fragile if the reasons for its emergence are not eliminated, according to experts.
Iraq fought a violent battle against terrorists who threatened to be there in 2014, but military success is not enough.
"There is still a lot to be done to dry up the resources that have allowed the emergence of the Daqash organization," said Karim Bitar, an expert on Middle East affairs at the Paris-based International Institute for International and Strategic Affairs in Paris. Fertile ".
"First, we must strengthen the power of the central authorities with comprehensive policies that do not marginalize any sect," Bitar said. "It will be necessary to address the problems of reconstruction, economic and social problems, fight corruption and ensure fair distribution of oil revenues, of course without forgetting the resumption of negotiations with the KRG," he said.
These issues are critical to Iraq, which has known only war for nearly 40 years.
Abadi said on Saturday that the next battle for his government, will be a battle against corruption, which will be "a natural extension of the processes of liberation of man and land," he said.
A donors' meeting is scheduled for next February in Kuwait to provide assistance for the reconstruction of the country in a $ 100 billion process.
"Solving the problem of a non-military organization is not only military," said Mohamed Ould Mohamedou, an expert on Iraqi affairs and professor at the Graduate Institute of International Studies and Development in Geneva.
"The issue of organization will not disappear, and the military side is far from the end," Ould Mohamedou said, "in similar conflicts, hostilities have been on for a long time at a level that requires great commitment."
Militants have driven back from the majority of the country but have withdrawn to the desert and still have cells in some cities, according to recent attacks.
"In addition, the reconstruction process will be more social rather than infrastructure," Ould Mohamedou said.
"As long as the fundamental problems remain unresolved and the sense of persecution and humiliation continues to be felt among some Sunni Iraqis, the threat of a new insurgency or rebellion against the terrorist movement is not excluded," Karim Bitar said.
"Acting regional wars and the weakness of central governments will not allow at this stage to turn the page of armed extremism once and for all."
"Iraq has witnessed violence during years of brutal dictatorship, then the catastrophic American invasion and its brutal aftermath, besieged by all regional conflicts, civil society and moderates have been marginalized for a long time, and the upper hand is the most extreme voices."
The other issue that will be the subject of much controversy is the future of the popular popular forces, which include mainly Shi'ite factions. It was founded in 2014 at the invitation of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the country's largest Shiite authority, to counter the progress of a pro-Islamic organization.
It is estimated that the number of popular mobilization fighters according to the Iraqi parliament by 110 thousand, while according to experts, between 60,000 and 140 thousand.
"This semi-military government entity has grown to the point where it almost replaced the regular Iraqi army and its other special forces," Ould Mohamedou said.
He warns that "dissolving the crowd will be difficult for the Iraqi state, and the persistence of similar actors in Iraqi society is part of the continuity of violence and the inability of the state to continue."
"The future of the (popular) crowd will depend on the delicate diplomatic balance that the Iraqis will have to find in the context of the Iran-Saudi Cold War," Bitar said.
"There is still a lot to be done to dry up the resources that have allowed the emergence of the Daqash organization," said Karim Bitar, an expert on Middle East affairs at the Paris-based International Institute for International and Strategic Affairs in Paris. Fertile ".
"First, we must strengthen the power of the central authorities with comprehensive policies that do not marginalize any sect," Bitar said. "It will be necessary to address the problems of reconstruction, economic and social problems, fight corruption and ensure fair distribution of oil revenues, of course without forgetting the resumption of negotiations with the KRG," he said.
These issues are critical to Iraq, which has known only war for nearly 40 years.
Abadi said on Saturday that the next battle for his government, will be a battle against corruption, which will be "a natural extension of the processes of liberation of man and land," he said.
A donors' meeting is scheduled for next February in Kuwait to provide assistance for the reconstruction of the country in a $ 100 billion process.
"Solving the problem of a non-military organization is not only military," said Mohamed Ould Mohamedou, an expert on Iraqi affairs and professor at the Graduate Institute of International Studies and Development in Geneva.
"The issue of organization will not disappear, and the military side is far from the end," Ould Mohamedou said, "in similar conflicts, hostilities have been on for a long time at a level that requires great commitment."
Militants have driven back from the majority of the country but have withdrawn to the desert and still have cells in some cities, according to recent attacks.
"In addition, the reconstruction process will be more social rather than infrastructure," Ould Mohamedou said.
"As long as the fundamental problems remain unresolved and the sense of persecution and humiliation continues to be felt among some Sunni Iraqis, the threat of a new insurgency or rebellion against the terrorist movement is not excluded," Karim Bitar said.
"Acting regional wars and the weakness of central governments will not allow at this stage to turn the page of armed extremism once and for all."
"Iraq has witnessed violence during years of brutal dictatorship, then the catastrophic American invasion and its brutal aftermath, besieged by all regional conflicts, civil society and moderates have been marginalized for a long time, and the upper hand is the most extreme voices."
The other issue that will be the subject of much controversy is the future of the popular popular forces, which include mainly Shi'ite factions. It was founded in 2014 at the invitation of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the country's largest Shiite authority, to counter the progress of a pro-Islamic organization.
It is estimated that the number of popular mobilization fighters according to the Iraqi parliament by 110 thousand, while according to experts, between 60,000 and 140 thousand.
"This semi-military government entity has grown to the point where it almost replaced the regular Iraqi army and its other special forces," Ould Mohamedou said.
He warns that "dissolving the crowd will be difficult for the Iraqi state, and the persistence of similar actors in Iraqi society is part of the continuity of violence and the inability of the state to continue."
"The future of the (popular) crowd will depend on the delicate diplomatic balance that the Iraqis will have to find in the context of the Iran-Saudi Cold War," Bitar said.
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