Contains the story and see the head of the parliamentary citizen and former minister for reconstruction and interior ministries and Finance Baqir Jabr Al-Zubaidi
Bayan Jabr After reviewing the draft law on the federal budget for the year 2014 and the attached tables with him and make our analysis generated the following observations:
First oil revenues
I've been following the adoption in calculating oil revenues
1) average export price of crude oil per barrel to $ 90 in the light of price volatility in the global markets States adopt oil export prices and preferred to adopt a conservative price of $ 85 on the far end to avoid any possible decline may expose the country to an economic crisis.
2) adopted the rate amounts to export 3.4 million barrels of crude oil per day, a figure very exaggerated in light of what has been achieved over the past years, especially in 2013, where the rate did not exceed the amount of export 2.6 million barrels per day, even if we adopted the optimism shown by the Ministry of Oil in improved means to export it at best can not reach the amount of export to more than three million barrels of crude oil per day, and thus about 400 thousand barrels is the number of placebo even hit 400 thousand in $ 90 in 360 days, about 15 trillion dinars oil revenues fake not achieved with the survival of the amount of estimated spending for 2014 will increase the amount of the apparent deficit (in the schedules of the budget to about 46 trillion dinars), 30.770 +15 = about 46 trillion.
The apparent failure of the draft budget law amounted to 30.770 trillion dinars, or approximately 18% of the total budget, which in itself is very high and if you add to it as we have in the first above oil revenues delusional as a result of excessive quantities of exports, it will be as we have said about 46 trillion dinars Post There is also a material within the draft budget law was legal provisions will add numbers spending not included in the expenditure tables contained in the draft law, which need financing which will increase the size of the deficit, namely:
1) Fifth paragraph of Article 11 of the draft law.
2) Paragraph I, II and IV of Article 12.
3) Paragraphs I., II, III and IV, V and VI, and formerly of Article 14.
4) Articles 18 and 24.
If the added expenses that arranged these materials to the deficit described above, the amount of the deficit could reach more than 60 trillion, a figure can not be any economy that endures because it would constitute about 35% of the total proposed budget.
Thirdly cash budget
Did not provide the Ministry of Finance and the government's budget cash clarify which sources will depend upon the fund and cover the deficit, and what is stated in paragraph II (b) of Article 2, which provides for transfer of the Federal Ministry of Finance the power to borrow from the International Monetary Fund which complements the $ 4.5 billion is important can not be achieved because the fund does not lend without signing an agreement with the State concerned, and this is expected to be completed after the entry into force of the agreement signed and this was repeated in paragraph budgets without her presence and we propose to delete.
But as stated in paragraph (c) the judge authorizing the Federal Ministry of Finance to borrow 500 million dollars from the Islamic Development Bank, an offer Old this loan as if it is not to support the budget to cover the deficit, but to finance investment projects agreed to in order to be demanding the Ministry of Finance and the government's budget to provide cash to clarify the sources that will fund the deficit.
It also stated that one of the paragraphs of the memorandum of the Parliamentary Finance Committee of the Ministry of Finance proposes to fund the ($ 5) of the petrodollar of treasury bills purchased by the central bank which is not out of the question because the law prohibits lending to the central government directly.
Fourthly extinguishing advances
The amortization of advances granted under the Cabinet decisions set forth in Article 15 is against the law because the Council of Ministers can not be granted advances unless there are allocations of the budget sanctioned by Parliament and this has already rejected when discussing the previous year's budget of 2013, so it must be analyzed and presented to Parliament for approval before amortization in the case disapproval bear Cabinet responsibility.
Fifth state banks lending to public institutions
The continuation of the banks lending institutions, self-funded for the purpose of the latter to pay the salaries of its members mentioned in Article 26 will lead to the bankruptcy of these banks because they pay the amounts they lend from deposits of citizens and here lies the danger, because if hair citizens that will be brought to withdraw their deposits, although banks will not be able to fulfill, especially and we do not know the amount of money that has been lent.
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