Major central banks hint at the return of the global economy to the "zero square"

Major central banks hint at the return of the global economy to the "zero square"

 12 June 2019 10:18 PM
From: Sally Ismail
Mubasher: After more than 10 years of the global financial crisis, is the global economy back to the "zero square" again?
In 2008, the global financial crisis took place against the backdrop of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers , which led to the turmoil of the financial markets in addition to the downward trend that dominated the global economy at the time.
The crisis has prompted major central banks around the world to resort to quantitative easing programs that will inject liquidity into markets to boost the economy and boost growth.
A few years ago, however, these central banks began to move away from those stimulus policies and monetary tightening, in line with strong growth in the global economy.
While the loosening of loose monetary policy is accompanied by signs of a global economic slowdown amid trade and geopolitical concerns.
This uncertainty prompted central banks to change their hawkish rhetoric and raise the banner of "waiting and waiting" until further notice for fear of entering a global recession.
If the economic slowdown becomes too severe, countries may need more stimulus measures that boost economic growth.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for global economic growth this year for the third time in six months due to growing trade tensions and monetary policy conditions.
The IMF expects the world economy to grow 3.3 percent this year, 0.4 percent lower than its October 2018 forecast.
At the beginning of 2019, global central banks resorted to changing their hawkish tone to become more cautious while postponing some of the proposed tightening plans.
The Federal Reserve cut its forecast for this year's interest rate hike to zero after it had been expected to raise it twice with its announcement to stay within the "patience with anticipation" policy.
The Fed is setting interest rates at 2.25 to 2.50 percent this year after raising it nine times since the start of the monetary tightening cycle in 2015, including 4 times last year alone.
In this context, the bank has slowed the pace of reducing the balance sheet of the Federal Bank from May last year and be stopped in September.
The Fed's decision comes after several criticisms by US President Donald Trump of the bank's policy on raising interest rates, saying it was hurting the economy.
But the financial markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice by the beginning of next year, to support growth and thwart the prospects for a slowing economy.
Looking at the ECB, it was hinting at an interest rate hike at historically low levels that was moving towards a delay.
At the recent ECB meeting , the bank pledged not to change its monetary policy until at least the first half of 2020 after it had intended to revise it by the end of this year.
At the same time, the bank's president, Mario Draghi , who leaves office later this year , put forward the idea of cutting interest rates by pointing out that the ECB is ready to cut rates or implement other measures if needed.
Earlier this year, the ECB expressed its intention to launch a new series of long-term and cheap bank refinancing from September 2019 to March 2020.
On the other hand, the Japanese government has shown its willingness to implement a flexible policy in the event of escalating economic risks in an effort to maintain the recovery of the economy.
Elsewhere, central banks moved in a large number of emerging markets to cut interest rates amid concerns about the strength of the global economy and trade tensions.

[size=17][size=17]While Turkey's central bank continues to set interest rates at 24 percent since the September 2018 meeting but is also open to adjusting the monetary policy stance based on new data or information.
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Tip for the return of the global economy to «zero square»



Friday 14 June 2019
 68


Tip for the return of the global economy to «zero square»
Capitals / agencies
The global financial crisis took place in 2008 against the backdrop of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, which led to the turmoil of the financial markets in addition to the downward trend that dominated the global economy at the time. The crisis has prompted major central banks around the world to resort to quantitative easing programs that inject liquidity into markets to drive the economy and boost growth.
But a few years ago, central banks gradually moved away from these stimulus policies and monetary tightening in line with strong growth in the global economy, while the elimination of loose monetary policy was accompanied by signs of a global economic slowdown amid trade and geopolitical concerns.
This uncertainty prompted central banks to change their hawkish rhetoric and raise the banner of "waiting and waiting" until further notice for fear of entering a global recession.
 
Economic slowdown
If this economic slowdown becomes too severe, countries may need more stimulus measures to boost economic growth.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for global economic growth this year for the third time in six months due to growing trade tensions and monetary policy conditions.
The IMF expects the world economy to grow 3.3 percent this year, 0.4 percent lower than its October 2018 forecast.
 
Proposed plans
In early 2019, global central banks resorted to changing their hawkish tone to become more cautious while postponing some of the proposed tightening plans.
The Federal Reserve cut its forecast for this year's interest rate hike to zero after it had been expected to raise it twice with its announcement to stay within the "patience with anticipation" policy.
The Fed is setting interest rates at 2.25 to 2.50 percent this year after raising it nine times since the start of the monetary tightening cycle in 2015, including 4 times last year alone.
In this context, the bank has slowed the pace of reducing the balance sheet of the federal beginning of May and to be finalized in September.
The Fed's decision comes after several criticisms by US President Donald Trump of the bank's policy on raising interest rates, saying it was hurting the economy.
But the financial markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice by the beginning of next year, to support growth and thwart the prospects for a slowing economy.
Looking at the ECB, hinting at the timing of interest rate increases at historically low levels turned towards postponement of these plans.
 
European Central Bank
At the recent ECB meeting, the bank pledged not to change its monetary policy until at least the first half of 2020 after it had intended to modify it by the end of this year.
At the same time, bank president Mario Draghi, who leaves office later this year, put forward the idea of ​​cutting interest rates by suggesting that the ECB is ready to cut interest rates or implement other measures if needed.
Earlier this year, the ECB expressed its intention to launch a new series of long-term and cheap refinancing of banks from September 2019 to March 2020. On the other hand, the Japanese government has shown its willingness to implement a flexible policy in the event of escalating economic risks in an effort to preserve Recovery of the economy.
Elsewhere, central banks moved in a large number of emerging markets to cut interest rates amid concerns about the strength of the global economy and trade tensions.
While Turkey's central bank continues to set interest rates at 24 percent since the September 2018 meeting but is also open to adjusting the monetary policy stance based on new data or information.

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