Morgan Stanley: Brent crude returns to $ 60 mid-2020 despite OPEC cuts
Economy News _ Baghdad
Morgan Stanley said that OPEC and its allies' plan to cut crude production to the end of the first quarter of next year will only support the market in the short term and that Brent crude is likely to return to $ 60 a barrel by mid-2020.
The bank cut its forecast for OPEC production next year by 400,000 bpd to 29.2 million bpd after oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to cut production in the first quarter of 2020, but they refrained from adopting any commitment beyond March.
"The recent additional cuts are clearly positive in the short term, but the need for them confirms the weakness of the fundamentals," the bank said in a note.
Despite the cuts, the bank expects non-OPEC supplies to grow to around 1.8 million bpd next year, with a monthly growth of US production of 50,000 bpd, which will be slower than in 2018 and 2019.
Morgan Stanley forecast a modest surplus next year, despite speculation that demand will accelerate, with support from IMO rules in 2020 that require shipping companies to reduce sulfur in ship fuel starting in January.
Brent fell 0.3 percent to $ 4.18 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude lost 0.5 percent to record $ 58.91 a barrel.
Morgan Stanley predicted that Brent would record $ 60.00 per barrel in the first quarter of 2020, but it reduced expectations to $ 60 for the rest of the year.
He expected West Texas Intermediate to settle at $ 57.5 a barrel in the first quarter and then increase to $ 55 in the rest of next year.