OPEC expects to focus the recovery in oil demand in the 2/2 half of 2021
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OPEC said on Thursday that the recovery in oil demand will be concentrated in the second half of the year, as the impact of the pandemic continues to undermine the support of the organization and its allies to the market .
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report that demand will increase by 5.89 million barrels per day in 2021, equivalent to 6.5 percent, a slight increase from the previous month's estimates. But the organization cut its forecast for the first half .
"Total demand for oil is expected to reach 96.3 million barrels per day, and it appears that most of the consumption will be in the second half," OPEC said in the report .
"The growth in demand this year will not be able to compensate for the large deficit in 2020, as restrictions on the movement of people are expected to continue throughout 2021. "
The latest projections may reinforce views of OPEC and its allies, within the OPEC + group, caution about how quickly more unprecedented oil production cuts they adopted last year could be abandoned. OPEC + decided last week to extend most of the current cuts to the end of April.
After the report was released, oil held most of the gains it had made earlier, as it traded near $ 69 a barrel. Prices have risen this month to pre-pandemic heights, buoyed by hopes for an economic recovery and OPEC + supply restrictions .
OPEC raised its forecast for global economic growth this year to 5.1 percent from 4.8 percent as activity accelerated by the end of the first half of the year, but it still expected a continued decline in fuel demand due to restrictions on the movement of people, despite the acceleration of growth .
OPEC said, "Oil-intensive sectors, especially travel and transportation, will continue to be particularly affected, with a greater negative impact on oil demand in 2020 and a less positive contribution to oil demand in 2021, compared to global economic growth ."
Saudi Arabia implements the cut
The report also showed a decline in OPEC oil production in February, at a time when most OPEC + members curbed production and Saudi Arabia pledged an additional voluntary cut of one million barrels per day in February and March .
OPEC said that its production fell by 650 thousand barrels per day to 24.85 million barrels per day, due to the Saudi cut .
Saudi Arabia told OPEC it had implemented most of the cuts, reducing production by 956,000 bpd to 8.147 million bpd .
The kingdom extended its voluntary cut to the end of April, as part of last week's OPEC + decision .
OPEC + cut supplies last year by an unprecedented 9.7 million barrels per day to support the market as demand collapses. Until February, producers blocked about 8.1 million barrels per day .
While these restrictions continue, competitors increase their supplies, and OPEC raised its forecast for production growth from outside to about one million barrels per day, led by Canada, the United States, Norway and Brazil, but US shale oil production is still expected to decrease .
For reasons including the expectation of increased supplies from outside OPEC, the organization reduced its estimate of global demand for its crude to 27.3 million barrels per day this year. However, this would allow for a higher average OPEC production in 2021 .
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