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An "adventure" that could topple the regime... 3 scenarios for the "last chance" elections
June 08, 2021
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An "adventure" that could topple the regime... 3 scenarios for the "last chance" elections
June 08, 2021
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The status quo puts the regime in the international monitoring circle
With every talk about the October elections, the option to boycott comes to the fore in heated discussions that reach the point of controversy over the feasibility and the path of those who agree and oppose them.
The boycotters stress that their choice this time will not be limited to abstaining from elections, as in 2018, based on the variables imposed by the Iraqi protests, which crystallized in part into political organizations that may be the nucleus of a political and popular opposition front with a legal status that can communicate with international parties.
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There is heated debate and controversy over the feasibility of participating in or boycotting the upcoming elections
On the other hand, the participants rely on an opposition front from within, which does not participate in the quota customs established after 2003, and works to expose everything that contradicts the legal and democratic contexts, but the boycotters see this option as an “adventure that does not guarantee results”, in light of the proliferation of weapons and the dominance of traditional forces over institutions state .
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Those heading for the boycott option say that only one path can take them to the polls through conditions including controlling arms and ending the state of impunity by holding the killers of demonstrators and activists accountable, in addition to activating the parties’ law and forming an independent election commission away from sectarian representation.
The international community is "embarrassed"!
The head of the Center for Political Thinking, Ihsan Al-Shammari, agrees with the boycott option, and justifies his position by considering the October entitlement to “significantly undermine the legitimacy of this regime, especially since the elections are early and not within the stipulated constitutional framework, but rather the result of protests.”
Al-Shammari believes, "The non-participation of the emerging forces that count on October will hit the early elections with death, as it is a basic demand for the demonstrators as the forces of power are keen to describe them," noting that "the international community will be scrutinizing these data, and taking into account the return of traditional forces' control over the decision political".
Al-Shammari said in an interview with “Ultra Iraq”, that “the recent UN Security Council resolution occurs for the first time regarding Iraq, if it specifies in the second paragraph (a) the presence of international monitoring and increasing the geographical area of the monitoring mission, and most importantly is its requirement to submit a report to the Secretary-General, and this The resolution bears strong connotations, as it was issued by the UN Security Council, not the UN General Assembly.
Al-Shammari is counting on the impact of this resolution and the report to be submitted by the UN election observer team “to formulate a resolution from the UN Security Council exclusively against the existing system, after the embarrassment experienced by the international community as a result of the transformation of the power forces in Iraq into an authoritarian regime that does not respect human rights and prevails in Unarmed weapons, which practically means destabilizing the legitimacy of this regime and a prelude to changing the political map.
Al-Shammari added, "The current situation places the existing system in the circle of international monitoring at a level that is not limited to the elections, but fears that Iraq will turn into a state that threatens peace and societal security, especially with the presence of armed groups that have worked to threaten some neighboring countries, and diplomatic missions, and this stimulates The international community has to deal with new standards with the political process, which may reach the imposition of sanctions on some parties.
Regarding the criteria that the international community will rely on to assess the situation in the country, Al-Shammari says, “There are criteria for every detail of the electoral process, and they are not related to the issue of selling voter cards and vote fraud only, but rather start from electoral propaganda to the stage of announcing the results, and the non-conformity of these standards for the global system, it will make the elections rigged."
"Disappointment!"
Although a large segment of activists and opinion makers agreed on the absence of any indications of real change, some of them believe that the boycott option may cause the protest audience a bit of "disappointment."
Academic Diary Al-Faili explains this by noting that "the protest movement has largely succeeded in gaining societal sympathy, and this is what the opponents of the protest fear, and not investing the moment may mean losing the opportunity to experiment."
Al-Faili said in an interview with "Ultra Iraq", "The boycott in itself will not lead to a change in the electoral scene, and participation in its public dimension as well, but it is an inevitable issue, to know the mechanisms and conditions of the elections, and to fight them for scrutiny."
He explains, "The political organizations emanating from Tishreen need direct contact with the psychology of the electoral process, and to know the public's trends and how to influence their decision by the parties that own money and the media, and this monopoly can only be broken through experience."
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The boycotters are counting on new political forces to create an opposition core in exchange for voices who see the boycott as an "unsecured adventure."
Al-Faili does not count on achieving real change, even if he accepts that the forces emanating from the protests have won seats in the parliament, but this may lead to “exposing the compromises and tricks of the power forces,” as he sees it, to establish a future to produce a greater societal transformation.
Al-Faili requires the boycott to be able to “violate the legitimacy of the elections, and persuade a wide audience not to participate,” noting that “going to the boycott option without that means an adventure that wastes the protest movement’s possibility, albeit a simple one, in crystallizing a strategic nucleus that causes shifts in the range.” remote".
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