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Fitch expects Iraq's debt to decline sharply during 2022
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Mubasher: Fitch Ratings expected Iraq's government debt to decline sharply in 2022 relative to gross domestic product, bringing it to pre-Covid-19 levels.
Fitch said, in a report today, Wednesday, that this decline is a positive matter for the creditworthiness of the sovereign rating, noting that this decline may not be sustainable; Due to political tensions that have constrained public spending and reflect the high political risks that are recorded in Iraq's rating at " B- ".
The agency forecasts that debt-to-GDP will decline as oil prices rise - which it estimates will average $105 per barrel in 2022 and $85 per barrel in 2023 - and government revenues and nominal GDP increase.
Fitch noted that it expects the ratio of Iraqi government debt to GDP to decrease in 2022 to about 47% of GDP, compared to 66% in 2021, indicating that the debt ratio in the country is the largest for any sovereign country in the Middle East. and North Africa, which puts the country below the " B " average in the sovereign rating.
The agency indicated that its expectations of achieving a fiscal surplus of GDP of 17% in 2022 assumes an increase in spending by 6% of GDP, in general agreement with the emergency support law.
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Fitch Ratings Agency
July 20 2022 12:01 PMMubasher: Fitch Ratings expected Iraq's government debt to decline sharply in 2022 relative to gross domestic product, bringing it to pre-Covid-19 levels.
Fitch said, in a report today, Wednesday, that this decline is a positive matter for the creditworthiness of the sovereign rating, noting that this decline may not be sustainable; Due to political tensions that have constrained public spending and reflect the high political risks that are recorded in Iraq's rating at " B- ".
The agency forecasts that debt-to-GDP will decline as oil prices rise - which it estimates will average $105 per barrel in 2022 and $85 per barrel in 2023 - and government revenues and nominal GDP increase.
Fitch noted that it expects the ratio of Iraqi government debt to GDP to decrease in 2022 to about 47% of GDP, compared to 66% in 2021, indicating that the debt ratio in the country is the largest for any sovereign country in the Middle East. and North Africa, which puts the country below the " B " average in the sovereign rating.
The agency indicated that its expectations of achieving a fiscal surplus of GDP of 17% in 2022 assumes an increase in spending by 6% of GDP, in general agreement with the emergency support law.
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