[size=36]After a rare meeting... sources talk about Al-Sadr's future in political life in Iraq[/size]
Political | 09:19 - 05/12/2024
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Mawazine News - Baghdad
Multiple sources told Reuters that the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, is paving the way for his return to the political scene, two years after his attempt to form a government without his Shiite rivals failed.
Observers say that his return, likely scheduled for the parliamentary elections in 2025, may threaten the growing influence of competitors, including Shiite parties and Iraqi armed factions close to Iran, and undermine the relative stability that Iraq has witnessed recently.
During the preparation of this report, Reuters spoke with more than 20 sources, including Shiite politicians from the Sadrist movement, rival factions, clerics and politicians in the holy city of Najaf for Shiites, government officials and analysts. Most of them spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic.
A former representative of the Sadrist movement said, “This time, the Sadrist movement has a stronger determination than before to win a larger number of seats to form a majority government,” although the final decision to run has not been made officially.
The Sadrist movement won the parliamentary elections in 2021, but Al-Sadr ordered his deputies to resign, then announced the following year his final withdrawal from the political process in the country after rival Shiite parties thwarted his attempt to form a majority government with only Kurdish and Sunni parties.
Al-Sadr, a prominent figure in Iraq since America entered the country in 2003, denounces the influence of Iran and the United States in Iraq.
Iran considers Al-Sadr's participation in political life important for preserving Iraq's Shiite-dominated political system in the long term, although Tehran rejects his aspirations to recognize him as a single dominant power.
The United States, which fought militants loyal to Al-Sadr after he declared "jihad" against it in 2004, sees Al-Sadr as a threat to Iraq's fragile stability, but it also sees him as a tool to counter Iranian influence, according to Reuters.
Many Iraqis say their conditions are worsening regardless of who takes power, while elites drain the country's oil wealth.
A rare meeting.
Al-Sadr has been back in the spotlight since last March.
First, he held a rare meeting with Ali al-Sistani, the supreme authority for Iraqi Shiites who played a pivotal role in ending bloody clashes between Shiites in 2022 before al-Sadr withdrew from the political arena.
Six sources from the Sadrist movement said that the Sadrists interpret the meeting that took place on March 18 with Al-Sistani, who distances himself from the complex political scene and does not usually meet with politicians, as implicit support.
A cleric close to Al-Sistani said that Al-Sadr spoke about a possible return to political life and parliament and emerged from this important meeting with a “positive result.” Sistani's office did not respond to a request for comment.
Days after the meeting, Al-Sadr called on the representatives of the Sadrist bloc who resigned in 2021 to regroup and communicate again with the movement’s political base.
A source close to him said that Al-Sadr then renamed the movement to bear the name “National Shiite Movement,” in a veiled criticism of rival Shiite factions that he considers unpatriotic and loyal to Iran, as well as in an attempt to mobilize his popular Shiite base.
While some analysts fear a state of confusion due to Al-Sadr's return to the political scene, others say that he may return more modest due to the defeat of his supporters during armed confrontations with rival Shiite factions, as well as the relative success achieved by the current Baghdad government, including balancing relations with Iran and the United States. United.
“Of course, the risk of unrest always increases when the number of factions increases in the balance of power, especially when they are armed,” said Hamza Haddad, an Iraqi analyst and visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “But the Sadrists must return to being less aggressive.”
He added, "The political factions know that it is better to share power than to lose it completely."
A prominent Sadrist politician said that the movement may seek an alliance with some of the ruling Shiite factions, such as the Prime Minister, Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani, who is very popular, while excluding others, including his arch rival, Qais Khazali, the leader of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq faction. Political and military allied with Iran.
Advisors to Al-Sudani said that the Prime Minister is keeping his options open.
The Sadrist politician stated, "There are factions within the framework with which we have long-term relations and with whom we can ally before or after the elections. What we do not accept is entering into agreements with corrupt factions."
In Sadr City, a sprawling, long-poverty stronghold of the movement on the eastern side of Baghdad, many are waiting for Al-Sadr's return, hoping it will translate into jobs and services.
Talib Mahawi (37 years old), a father of three children, waiting for a response to an application for a government job, said, “This city supports Al-Sadr, and I do not think he will forget us after all the sacrifices we made for him... He should change things when he returns.”
Observers say that his return, likely scheduled for the parliamentary elections in 2025, may threaten the growing influence of competitors, including Shiite parties and Iraqi armed factions close to Iran, and undermine the relative stability that Iraq has witnessed recently.
During the preparation of this report, Reuters spoke with more than 20 sources, including Shiite politicians from the Sadrist movement, rival factions, clerics and politicians in the holy city of Najaf for Shiites, government officials and analysts. Most of them spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic.
A former representative of the Sadrist movement said, “This time, the Sadrist movement has a stronger determination than before to win a larger number of seats to form a majority government,” although the final decision to run has not been made officially.
The Sadrist movement won the parliamentary elections in 2021, but Al-Sadr ordered his deputies to resign, then announced the following year his final withdrawal from the political process in the country after rival Shiite parties thwarted his attempt to form a majority government with only Kurdish and Sunni parties.
Al-Sadr, a prominent figure in Iraq since America entered the country in 2003, denounces the influence of Iran and the United States in Iraq.
Iran considers Al-Sadr's participation in political life important for preserving Iraq's Shiite-dominated political system in the long term, although Tehran rejects his aspirations to recognize him as a single dominant power.
The United States, which fought militants loyal to Al-Sadr after he declared "jihad" against it in 2004, sees Al-Sadr as a threat to Iraq's fragile stability, but it also sees him as a tool to counter Iranian influence, according to Reuters.
Many Iraqis say their conditions are worsening regardless of who takes power, while elites drain the country's oil wealth.
A rare meeting.
Al-Sadr has been back in the spotlight since last March.
First, he held a rare meeting with Ali al-Sistani, the supreme authority for Iraqi Shiites who played a pivotal role in ending bloody clashes between Shiites in 2022 before al-Sadr withdrew from the political arena.
Six sources from the Sadrist movement said that the Sadrists interpret the meeting that took place on March 18 with Al-Sistani, who distances himself from the complex political scene and does not usually meet with politicians, as implicit support.
A cleric close to Al-Sistani said that Al-Sadr spoke about a possible return to political life and parliament and emerged from this important meeting with a “positive result.” Sistani's office did not respond to a request for comment.
Days after the meeting, Al-Sadr called on the representatives of the Sadrist bloc who resigned in 2021 to regroup and communicate again with the movement’s political base.
A source close to him said that Al-Sadr then renamed the movement to bear the name “National Shiite Movement,” in a veiled criticism of rival Shiite factions that he considers unpatriotic and loyal to Iran, as well as in an attempt to mobilize his popular Shiite base.
While some analysts fear a state of confusion due to Al-Sadr's return to the political scene, others say that he may return more modest due to the defeat of his supporters during armed confrontations with rival Shiite factions, as well as the relative success achieved by the current Baghdad government, including balancing relations with Iran and the United States. United.
“Of course, the risk of unrest always increases when the number of factions increases in the balance of power, especially when they are armed,” said Hamza Haddad, an Iraqi analyst and visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “But the Sadrists must return to being less aggressive.”
He added, "The political factions know that it is better to share power than to lose it completely."
A prominent Sadrist politician said that the movement may seek an alliance with some of the ruling Shiite factions, such as the Prime Minister, Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani, who is very popular, while excluding others, including his arch rival, Qais Khazali, the leader of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq faction. Political and military allied with Iran.
Advisors to Al-Sudani said that the Prime Minister is keeping his options open.
The Sadrist politician stated, "There are factions within the framework with which we have long-term relations and with whom we can ally before or after the elections. What we do not accept is entering into agreements with corrupt factions."
In Sadr City, a sprawling, long-poverty stronghold of the movement on the eastern side of Baghdad, many are waiting for Al-Sadr's return, hoping it will translate into jobs and services.
Talib Mahawi (37 years old), a father of three children, waiting for a response to an application for a government job, said, “This city supports Al-Sadr, and I do not think he will forget us after all the sacrifices we made for him... He should change things when he returns.”
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