Iraq's closest allies: Americans will remain in the Kurdistan Region and Baghdad will not change the reality
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Baghdad Today - Baghdad
Political science professor Khaled Al-Ardawi confirmed today, Saturday (September 14, 2024), that the continued presence of American forces in the Kurdistan Region, if they announce their withdrawal from the rest of the Iraqi cities, is a natural matter, while explaining the reason for that.
Al-Ardawi told Baghdad Today that “it is too early to judge the success of the Iraqi government in removing the American military presence from Iraq unless Washington guarantees that the vacuum that its forces may leave will not be filled by Tehran and its agents. Its feeling that its interests in Iraq are threatened will mean placing obstacles in the way of the announced agreement, and may even create political and security problems that prevent its implementation, especially since the start of the withdrawal will not take place until a year from now.”
“The presence of an American force in the Kurdistan Region is natural, because Washington sees the Kurds as its closest allies in Iraq, and since the peace agreement between the Yekiti and Barty parties that it sponsored in 1998, it has pledged to protect the Kurdistan Region from any aggression it is exposed to, and this matter was known to all the forces participating in the London Conference in 2002, and I do not believe that the Baghdad government is capable of changing these facts and imposing a new reality on the Kurds, and that relations between Baghdad and Erbil are currently unstable, and may become more complicated in the future.”
Al-Ardawi added, "If the Americans withdraw from Iraq in general, and remain in the region, this may be used as a pretext to exacerbate the relationship with the Kurds, especially by the hawkish group of Shiite politicians, but this exacerbation will not serve the interests of either party, and will be a reason for more foreign interference in Iraqi affairs."
The American newspaper, The Washington Post, revealed today, Saturday (September 14, 2024), that the Pentagon has plans to keep a military force in Kurdistan to protect the region from the factions.
The newspaper said in a report that "the initial agreement between Washington and Baghdad regarding the presence of American forces will include leaving a small force in the Kurdistan region whose mission is to provide security guarantees for the Kurds against the factions supported by Iran."
"As with the first US exit in 2011, the US withdrawal is likely to leave behind an Iraq burdened with major security vulnerabilities, sectarian divisions and corruption, problems that helped give rise to ISIS at the time, " she added.
It quoted an Iraqi military official as saying, "It is expected that the United States will keep a small military force in the semi-autonomous region."
For his part, the advisor to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, Hussein Allawi, said that "there will soon be a joint announcement about the intended withdrawal," stressing that "Baghdad wants the relationship with the United States to return to what it was before 2014."
Allawi pointed out that "the need for the international coalition ended with the defeat of ISIS, and now the Iraqi forces are fully capable of dealing with the security file efficiently."
“The return of U.S. forces a decade ago became necessary when Iraqi security forces largely collapsed amid ISIS attacks,” said Dana Stroul, director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “I doubt that any U.S. president would send troops back if Iraqi leaders did not take steps to prioritize the counterterrorism mission.”
This, she continues, must “include preventing the country from becoming a playground for Iran, addressing rampant corruption, providing official security forces with resources and empowerment, and ensuring that the government is responsive to the needs of all Iraqis .”
According to sources familiar with the secret talks, the newspaper reported that some American lawmakers were informed of the withdrawal plans .
Among them is Representative Adam Smith, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, who described the future presence of U.S. forces as a major political challenge for Iraqi leaders .
"The Iraqi people would prefer that there were no American forces, and they would prefer that there was no ISIS, and they realize that we are helping to solve this problem, " Smith said in an interview with the newspaper.
"The Iraqis want us to leave, and they want to know how to do that. That's not easy, " Smith added.
In turn, Democratic Senator Jack Reed, who chairs the Senate Armed Services Committee, said that the issue brings together a set of complex interests for both countries .
"The Iraqis realize that our presence provides stability, but there is also a danger to our forces, " he added.
Reid noted that US officials were not happy that the new Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, made Iraq his first foreign destination, as he was officially received by Al-Sudani on Wednesday .
Republican Rep. Corey Mills, an Iraq War veteran who sits on the House Foreign Affairs and Armed Services committees, said he was particularly concerned about the influence of Iran and the militias it backs .
Although Mills does not oppose withdrawal in principle, he stressed the need for a plan to ensure stability in Iraq, "I think you have an obligation, if you destabilize a country, to help it stabilize again ."
The agreement comes after more than six months of talks between Baghdad and Washington that al-Sudani began in January amid attacks by Iranian-backed Iraqi armed groups on US forces stationed in bases in Iraq, according to the newspaper.
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