After Al-Sudani's statements.. Is Iraq able to abandon the international coalition?

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[size=52]After Al-Sudani's statements.. Is Iraq able to abandon the international coalition?[/size]

[size=45]The announcement by the Iraqi Prime Minister, Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani, on Thursday, that the Iraqi government is “proceeding” towards ending the presence of the international coalition in Iraq does not deviate from a political framework, according to experts and observers who spoke to the “Al-Hurra” website.[/size]
[size=45]It reveals a situation that prevents a security or military stance from being taken regarding the escalating attacks and responses between the United States of America and the Iranian-backed militias, and others linked to the “agenda with a pro-Tehran orientation.”[/size]
[size=45]Al-Sudani spoke during his meeting with the Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez.[/size]
[size=45]It was followed by air strikes carried out by the US Department of Defense, the Pentagon, on 3 sites belonging to the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades, in response to a bomb attack carried out by the militia on the Erbil Air Base, which resulted in the injury of 3 American soldiers.[/size]
[size=45]He added, "The government is in the process of rearranging the relationship in light of capable Iraqi forces," stressing that it is "moving toward ending the presence of the coalition forces, which includes security advisors who support the security forces in the areas of training, advice, and intelligence cooperation."[/size]
[size=45]Al-Sudani spoke of “recent attacks on Iraqi military bases and diplomatic missions,” and that the government’s official position considers them “hostile acts that harm the national interest and affect the security and stability of the country.”[/size]
[size=45]He also stressed “the importance of adhering to the legal mandate granted by previous Iraqi governments for this presence, which must be within the framework of support for the security forces in the areas of training, and must not exceed the limit of carrying out military actions as they represent a violation of Iraqi sovereignty, which is unacceptable,” as he put it.[/size]
[size=45]why now?
What Al-Sudani said is not considered new in terms of the presence of international coalition forces in Iraq, as he had previously referred to a part related to “the end of ISIS” last September, which prompted a response from the United States of America.[/size]
[size=45]Three months ago, Washington confirmed that the presence of American forces in Iraq “is something agreed upon with Baghdad,” days after Sudanese made statements that ISIS “no longer poses a threat,” and that his country no longer needs the international coalition.[/size]
[size=45]US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said at the time: “Last August, we issued a joint statement with our Iraqi partners in which we stressed that we are there at their invitation, and therefore we intend to consult on a future process that includes the coalition to determine how the coalition’s military mission will develop.”[/size]
[size=45]He added: “The Iraqi security forces are assuming command of ISIS’s tasks inside Iraq and have demonstrated an increasing ability to confront this threat.”[/size]
[size=45]The Iraqi political researcher, Haitham Al-Hiti, considers that Al-Sudani’s talk about moving to end the presence of the international coalition in Iraq “is realistic and is the truest political statement by an official since 2003.”[/size]
[size=45]He told the “Al-Hurra” website that “the political agenda of the ruling elite is in a pro-Iranian direction and not the United States of America,” which is what we currently see reflected in reality.[/size]
[size=45]Loyalty to Iran is linked to several trends, the first of which is “making Iraq a permanent economic outlet for Iran, or a respiratory lung so that it is in possession,” according to Al-Hiti.[/size]
[size=45]The researcher adds, “Iran is part of the Russian-Chinese global path that works to compete with American hegemony, and therefore it is trying to uproot Iraq from the latter.”[/size]
[size=45]Mujahid Al-Sumaidaie, a researcher at the European Center for Counter-Terrorism and Intelligence Studies, believes that “the Iraqi government is in a difficult situation in terms of its ability to stop the bombing coming from the militias and the response from the United States.”[/size]
[size=45]He told Al-Hurra website that Al-Sudani’s statements were “political” and indicated “his government’s inability to take a strong security and military stance to stop these two interventions,” referring to the bombing and the corresponding response.[/size]
[size=45]Is Iraq able to give up?
After the rise of ISIS in 2014, and its control over about a third of Iraqi territory, Washington established an international coalition to support Iraqi forces and Kurdish forces in Syria.[/size]
[size=45]Despite its defeat in 2017 in Iraq, the organization still claims attacks in the country from time to time, and the coalition is still active in Iraq to prevent its rise again, even though the latter announced in 2021 “the end of combat missions.”[/size]
[size=45]The international coalition currently includes about 2,500 American soldiers and about 1,000 from its member states, and they are deployed in military bases under the command of Iraqi forces.[/size]
[size=45]Researcher Al-Sumaidaie believes that the Iraqi government “needs a plan if it wants to expel the coalition led by American forces, and it may be for five or three years or less.”[/size]
[size=45]For years, the coalition has been conducting “logistical operations, training, and bombing on ISIS sites, based on information coming from Iraq or from the intelligence services,” according to Al-Sumaidaie.[/size]
[size=45]He added: “If Iraq wants to end its presence, it must prepare to fill the void, that is, deploy forces capable of providing logistical support, confronting terrorism, and bombing sites.”[/size]
[size=45]He must “be able to collect information and intelligence efforts in the battle against the organization,” according to the researcher, who adds: “Otherwise, the result will be tragic, as happened in 2011 when American forces left, and terrorism spread until the country collapsed in 2013.”[/size]
[size=45]What about support?
The Iraqi forces rely heavily on Iranian support, Iranian-backed militias, and the coalition, according to Rich Otzen, a senior expert at the Atlantic Council and a former American officer.[/size]
[size=45]In an interview with Al-Hurra website, he believes that “the government’s demand that the coalition leave would deepen dependence on Iran and its agents.”[/size]
[size=45]“Iraq may be able to contain the remnants of ISIS on this basis, but not to the same degree, and not without ceding more control to Tehran,” Otzen adds.[/size]
[size=45]The American expert points out, on the other hand, that the Iraqi government relies on banking and financial support from Western to a high degree.[/size]
[size=45]He continues, “If coalition forces are invited to leave, it is unclear whether other forms of support will be maintained at the same levels.”[/size]
[size=45]The Haitian researcher, for his part, also refers to the same idea, and says, “The American side controls Iraqi financing. Meaning the amounts that come from American banks in exchange for oil prices.”[/size]
[size=45]This part constitutes “the only obstacle that prevents Iraq from escaping the path imposed by the United States of America,” according to Al-Hiti.[/size]
[size=45]However, the researcher believes that “in the long and not very distant term, there may be potential Iraqi, Chinese, Russian, and Iranian solutions to get Iraq off the path it is on.”[/size]
[size=45]Baghdad may seek to end the coalition’s presence on the ground while maintaining external support (air support, logistics, etc.) stationed in neighboring countries, according to the former American officer, Autzen.[/size]
[size=45]He asserts that “it is not clear that the United States will or should agree to this,” and that Al-Sudani’s statement may be “a way for Baghdad to put pressure on Erbil, as the Kurdistan Regional Government benefits more than anything else from the presence of the coalition.”[/size]
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