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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality


Neno

I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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    The future of energy is moving in a "complex" direction.. The state of the market is affected by man

    Rocky
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    The future of energy is moving in a "complex" direction.. The state of the market is affected by man Empty The future of energy is moving in a "complex" direction.. The state of the market is affected by man

    Post by Rocky Today at 5:06 am

    The future of energy is moving in a "complex" direction.. The state of the market is affected by many factors

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    [rtl]Economic writer Rania Goul[/rtl]
    [rtl]Crude oil prices are currently facing complex challenges, stabilizing around $71.50, reflecting uncertainty and pressure from markets re-pricing expectations of a Fed rate cut. As the likelihood of a major rate cut recedes, concerns about economic growth and energy demand are growing, leading to increased uncertainty in the outlook for oil prices in the coming months.[/rtl]
    [rtl]The US Dollar Index (DXY), which is trading near an 11-week high of 104.00, also reflects the pressure on oil prices. As US yields rise, the dollar is becoming more attractive to other currencies, which in my view is putting further pressure on oil prices. Speculative long positions in Brent crude futures fell for the first time in five weeks, while crude oil futures saw their net long positions decline for a third straight week.[/rtl]
    [rtl]In my view, production developments do not look positive either, with Norway recording a 1.5% increase in its oil production in September, reflecting an increase in global supply. Data showed that China’s oil market was oversupplied by 930,000 barrels per day in September. Comparisons between crude oil production figures from the National Bureau of Statistics and crude oil imports showed that China’s implied demand, which is the difference between crude oil processing and net exports of oil products, was 2% lower than a year earlier. In this context, the International Energy Agency expects Chinese demand to grow slightly, by around 150,000 barrels per day, but without expecting a sharp increase in demand next year.[/rtl]
    [rtl]The current market situation seems to me to reflect a combination of factors, including declining speculative positions, rising production, and oversupply in China, which reinforces the overall bearish outlook for prices. With the US election approaching, I expect politics to play a significant role in shaping the future of oil prices. Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are seeking to present different strategies on energy, but the real impact on the oil market is mostly coming from OPEC policies, geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and financial crises.[/rtl]
    [rtl]Under these circumstances, we should consider how US-China relations will affect demand, as slowing economic growth in China has prompted the IEA and OPEC to revise downward oil demand for 2024 and 2025. Given the current situation, I believe that a Trump victory could lead to higher volatility in oil markets due to his history of aggressive trade policies, which could impact Chinese demand and pose a risk to economic stability.[/rtl]
    [rtl]Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe also pose a major challenge, raising concerns about supply disruptions. Trump and Harris appear to be on different sides of the aisle, with Trump expected to take a more hawkish stance, potentially increasing volatility, while Harris favors diplomatic solutions.[/rtl]
    [rtl]In terms of OPEC policy, OPEC production quotas remain a key driver of oil prices. A Trump win could prompt OPEC to adjust its quotas given rising U.S. production, while a Harris win could prompt a more balanced approach.[/rtl]
    [rtl]Also, I can’t ignore the global shift towards renewable energy, with the International Energy Agency predicting that 2024 will be a record year for renewable energy, with consumption increasing by 60% by 2030. Harris also supports this shift through the Inflation Reduction Act, which could contribute to a decline in global demand for oil. In contrast, Trump’s policies are likely to slow this shift, leading to greater support for fossil fuels.[/rtl]
    [rtl]In short, I believe that the future of oil prices depends largely on a complex mix of political and economic factors. While the current market performance reflects uncertainty, issues related to global demand, geopolitical tensions, and changes in monetary policy will remain central to shaping future trends. In this context, investors and analysts should monitor these variables carefully, as rapid changes can occur that can significantly and unexpectedly impact oil prices.[/rtl]
    [rtl]Technical analysis of crude oil prices (WTI):[/rtl]
    [rtl]From a technical perspective, crude oil price is facing increasing pressure as markets shake off the effects of the Middle East conflict and supply appears to be plentiful. To regain momentum, the price must clear the pivotal level at $71.50 with a daily close, which would provide an opportunity to test the $75.13 level, which is a major hurdle. On the downside, the support level at $67.12 should be watched, and if broken, the market could see a decline to the 2024 low at $64.75, followed by $64.38.[/rtl]


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