O.d.abdalhasin Anbuge *: We have to really care about Aguetsadia..onbdo quick and strict by

O.d.abdalhasin Anbuge *: We have to really care about Aguetsadia..onbdo quick and strict by

- Published in 01/03/2016

Download PDF Abdulhussain Al-Anbaki-We must care first: worrying signs: 1. Iraq is losing $ 1.3 billion dollars annually for low and one for the price of a barrel of oil, let alone a decline of more than [...]

Download PDF Abdulhussain Al-Anbaki-We must care

First: an alarming indicators:

1. Iraq is losing $ 1.3 billion dollars annually for low and one for the price of a barrel of oil, let alone a decline of more than $ 80 in the last two years.

2. Widening the budget deficit to 95% dependence on oil from $ 22 billion to $ 45 per barrel estimated in the budget of 2016 to accommodate the planned deficit of more than $ 42 billion with the price up to $ 30 a barrel.

3 for sale . Investment spending is always the victim for any drop in oil prices since sacrificed first leads to stop the wheel of reconstruction and development and creates more deflationary pressures.

4 for sale . Infrastructure inherited from the former dictatorial regime is very bad, and the size of the investment does not rise to the level of vandalism that Otalha by terrorism after 2003 to now, as well as corruption in the selection and implementation of projects under the state grip is not strong and engaged extinguished the fires here and there, which makes production costs in the real sectors are high and produced goods and services uncompetitive. .

5. At a time when the economy needs a stimulus to counter unemployment and shrinking government finds itself forced to practice austerity measures, so the proceedings upside down where the press of aggregate demand in the economy at a time when it is supposed to increase it to save the economy.

6. Fiscal stimulus ( the central bank initiative) through 5 trillion dinars real sectors (housing, agriculture, industry) as well as 1.5 trillion for small and medium enterprises, did not find a way to implement because it is handicapped Bakptin, first the lack of banking system is able to create credit in this capacity, and the second failure the ability of the targeted sectors to absorb investments of this size and opportunities profitable unless many complementary factors pertaining to reduce costs and risks and increase profitable opportunities, and above all these obstacles to the Committee on Graduate lending is managed in accordance with the standards uneconomical, where sits on her throne non - professionals. available

7. Security and health sector program of social support (presumably not much) procedures austerity for fear of decline in the holy war against Daash affected, and the fear of poor quality of life and a declining standard of living and disease outbreaks, so austerity impact larger shows in agriculture, industry and services projects.

8. Relief displaced from other wars are not supposed to be affected, not temporally nor in terms of the size of it within the concept of emergency, and there are up to 3 million people came out of the production sector to the consumption sector in absolute terms .

9. Ages liberated areas of Daash will be a big challenge because it is devastating large by as much as 80% in Ramadi - because it was liberated by excluding the crowd the popular - and 20% in Baiji and Tikrit , and some areas of Diyala - because the popular crowd is basically in the edit - note that the refrigerator , which is supposed to be one of the editors stolen calculated within the destruction of 20%, and the federal budget suffers deficit is growing, and neighboring countries have political agendas if they donated to grant aid to the age of these provinces have made ​​the remarks recently (along the lines of the Marshall Plan after World war II) to earn the loyalty of these provinces and perhaps truncated or order of a federal status them have their absolute hand is to establish hatcheries for new generations of extremists prepare them for a later stage, he is also ordered not tolerate delay in order to re - displaced people and only spending relief remains sustained a consumer absolutely and costly in light of the budget federal empty after the collapse of the paid - up in oil prices factors are political and other in mostly.

Second , the procedures is wrong to insist upon:

There are three continuing actions it will create a strategic errors on the macroeconomic level are difficult to avoid in the future , namely:

1. a mistake to continue to reduce most of the border reached by the employees ' salaries, because there are (7 million) , a person salaried four of them employees and three retirees and a network of social protection, create spending accounts for more than 80% of total demand in the economy, and to continue the reduction means continuing to create a deflationary pressures become undesirable consequences after a while.

2. a mistake to continue to support the Iraqi dinar exchange rate to stay upped crutch (inordinate) because it runs counter to the national protection product and we have a productive device rickety and inelastic needs to motivate to work and become a production competitor and not vice versa, as well as that it will make us after a while we lose most of the Iraqi Central Bank reserves, and we gradual reduction of the price dinar exchange in order to round stays within certain limits, not floating, which is not up to market forces (supply and demand) in full.

3. wrong to continued expansion in borrowing , whether internal or external, because we're borrowing to support the general budget and bridging the deficit, and because the budget is mostly consumer , we borrow to consume , how can we cope with the burden of public debt in the future, knowing that the price of oil will remain low over the next three years or relatively improved only, as the decline on distributed elements of production and obtain a deflationary pressures and not to the possibility of the state to fulfill the accumulated obligations to contractors for projects completed fully or proportions completion of degrees, it becomes extremely difficult marketing of domestic public debt (government bonds to the public) and keeps external borrowing conditions for prisoners and recipes can not be met in the current of our situation even if the recipes are correct and reform.

Third: What is the reason to remain dominant in the market economy , State:

see what wisdom the survival of the public domain (state property) such a large scale in the country of its constitution provides for the transition to a market economy, and domain year and one of the standard sources of funding for the budget there is no need of undergoing political polemics, while borrowing is unusual source triggering it states in disaster after not enough standard sources , however it is not a political debate, if we want to support the private sector , we have to make him the owner, not a subcontractor to the state loses its chances of development to have on the one hand, and exhibits types ways to get their rights from state employees after undergoing all kinds of extortion and, by contrast Tervsh state to margins in times of financial prosperity, and to help her in times of crisis to sharpen Hmmh and patriotism which the state is the same destruction and sabotage times of prosperity, this distorted economic entity resulting from dealing temporary and the lump and self - interest, and the negligence of strategies, plans and visions are prone to dust the shelves, here claimed to the following:

1. Our domain is estimated in the hundreds of billions of dollars and can be found on state - owned land in the attached paper connectivity.

2. It could be stripped of the property and to develop detailed by the database, and then classified by the higher committee in the Prime Minister - make up for this Algrd- based on the possibility of the current disposition of property , whether by sale, or rent, or investment, and others ...

3. There are committees specializing in real estate registration department put the estimated prices of land and real estate can be used to develop specific discretionary ceiling prices of the lowest and highest good and transparent index will be when you open auction for the sale or rental properties.

4 for sale . You can direct auctions , two months after the formation of committees and are earning money the general budget of the state to be selling or leasing an extended number of years to represent a sustainable funding source in the medium term (5) years , for example.

5. Survival of the state owner of everything clung thought socialist and otherwise Constitution , which calls for the empowerment of the private sector, which can not be enabled unless the owner, also owns the private sector will create suppliers of funding:

- sales revenues or rent

- returns indirectly, as the mating property and the private return after reassuring to ownership will lead to performance, production and widening the tax vascular development makes future taxes are very important in the financing of the budget and turn the rentier state to state levies.

6. infrastructure remains the responsibility of the government, and as incapable of financing the government, there is no way choice but to resort to partnership contracts between public and private sectors (PPP) and we wrote a draft good law in cooperation with the World Bank which is today in the State Consultative Council of urgency in its legislation presumably because the initiation large projects according to this method will create significant economic engines saves the economy from slipping to their lowest recession bottom, and will increase the flexibility of the Iraqi productive apparatus in the face of the upcoming supply shock as a result of imports fell from his deficit of the balance of payments , which represents more than 80% of the total supply in the economy.

7.

(*) counselor for economic Affairs in the Prime Minister

March 1 / March 2016