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[size=36]Economist: Oil prices could rise to $200 if war expands[/size]
economy | 03:00 - 04/10/2024
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Mawazine News - Economy
Economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi predicted on Friday that oil prices will reach nearly $200 per barrel if the war in the region expands to include the Gulf states, especially if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, which will lead to the interruption of the flow of about 20 million barrels of oil per day to global markets.
In an analysis published by Al-Marsoumi, he spoke about two possible scenarios for the upcoming oil war:
1. The first possibility: Israel targets Iranian oil export outlets, especially Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iranian oil exports pass, which means removing 1.5 million barrels of Iranian oil per day from the market, which will raise prices by about $5 per barrel to reach $82. But this scenario will cut off the most important sources of funding for Iran.
- In this case, **OPEC Plus** is likely to intervene and cancel voluntary and mandatory production restrictions to compensate for the loss of Iranian oil, which may lead to a decrease in prices and their return to the $70 per barrel range.
2. The second possibility: The war expands to include oil pumping and export stations in the Gulf, which will affect Gulf oil exports, especially Saudi Arabia. In this scenario, oil prices may rise to levels exceeding $100 per barrel.
Al-Marsoumi also pointed out that Iran had previously confirmed that it would prevent oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz if it was prevented from exporting its oil, indicating that closing the strait would mean the interruption of about 20 million barrels per day of global supplies, which could push oil prices to levels of up to $200 per barrel, and the export of Gulf gas shipments passing through the strait would also be affected.
Al-Marsoumi concluded his analysis by pointing out that any Israeli strike might focus on targeting Iranian oil facilities, especially refineries, which could lead to the withdrawal of between 300 and 400 thousand barrels per day of Iranian exports.
However, he stressed that this loss may not have a significant impact on global oil prices, especially after Libyan oil production levels return to normal.
In an analysis published by Al-Marsoumi, he spoke about two possible scenarios for the upcoming oil war:
1. The first possibility: Israel targets Iranian oil export outlets, especially Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iranian oil exports pass, which means removing 1.5 million barrels of Iranian oil per day from the market, which will raise prices by about $5 per barrel to reach $82. But this scenario will cut off the most important sources of funding for Iran.
- In this case, **OPEC Plus** is likely to intervene and cancel voluntary and mandatory production restrictions to compensate for the loss of Iranian oil, which may lead to a decrease in prices and their return to the $70 per barrel range.
2. The second possibility: The war expands to include oil pumping and export stations in the Gulf, which will affect Gulf oil exports, especially Saudi Arabia. In this scenario, oil prices may rise to levels exceeding $100 per barrel.
Al-Marsoumi also pointed out that Iran had previously confirmed that it would prevent oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz if it was prevented from exporting its oil, indicating that closing the strait would mean the interruption of about 20 million barrels per day of global supplies, which could push oil prices to levels of up to $200 per barrel, and the export of Gulf gas shipments passing through the strait would also be affected.
Al-Marsoumi concluded his analysis by pointing out that any Israeli strike might focus on targeting Iranian oil facilities, especially refineries, which could lead to the withdrawal of between 300 and 400 thousand barrels per day of Iranian exports.
However, he stressed that this loss may not have a significant impact on global oil prices, especially after Libyan oil production levels return to normal.
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