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AFC East: The division owned by the New England Patriots
The New England Patriots’ franchise has had a stranglehold on the AFC East that is unparalleled in NFL history. In the salary cap era–where these kind of runs of dominance should not happen–the Patriots and Bill Belichick will win the AFC East for an NFL record eighth straight season in 2016.
The team’s dominance of the division is so complete that in the two seasons since 2001 where the Patriots did not win the division (2002 and 2008) they were still able tie for the division lead in victories and only lost out on the division crown and the playoffs due to tiebreakers.
As the Patriots head into their season finale against the Miami Dolphins (who have clinched a playoff spot for the first time since 2008), the question remains of how long the Patriots can continue their unprecedented run at the top of the AFC East?
THE NEW YORK JETS:
The New York Jets showed last week what a mess the franchise has spiraled into after narrowly missing the playoffs last season. The Jets had some good luck in 2015: tons of cap space inherited from former general manager John Idzik, the Ryan Fitzpatrick resurgence and a last-place schedule.
Although in desperate need of a rebuild, the Jets spent tons of money to bring back veterans on defense (David Harris, Antonio Cromartie and Darrelle Revis) while signing veteran offensive linemen, trading for Fitzpatrick to replace the disappointing Geno Smith and adding wide receiver Brandon Marshall for a late round draft pick.
Coming off a 10-6 season, the Jets made a few particularly egregious mistakes: they spent the entire offseason playing chicken with Fitzpatrick (rather than moving on from him with a younger quarterback), they signed another veteran on offense in running back Matt Forte (blocking any development of a younger running back) and they overpaid defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson rather than trading him away (as they had Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams still on their rookie contracts at the position) for some draft capital to inject youth into the franchise.
Now the Jets are halfway between a rebuild and trying to reload on a roster full of veterans. Wilkerson has dogged it in 2016 and Sheldon Richardson is destroying any trade value he may have had going into the offseason. Darrelle Revis is ridiculously overpaid and seems well past his prime at cornerback.
The quarterback situation is a mess as Fitzpatrick regressed to his mean, Bryce Petty was awful, Geno Smith got hurt (again!) and Christian Hackenberg has been hidden away in a secret bunker somewhere. Running back Bilal Powell should have been the lead back but Forte will be back next year.
At wide receiver, Brandon Marshall may be released to free up cap space or be traded away simply because he is one of the few veterans with any value. Eric Decker should be back to health and Quincy Enunwa has shown great growth, but the rest of the young receivers have shown little.
On defense, Richardson should go and rookie linebacker Darron Lee looks like the real deal. The Jets need more speed, less Revis and Buster Skrine at cornerback and Lorenzo Mauldin and Jordan Jenkins both seem unlikely to be the answer to their lack of edge pressure. The Jets need to load up on draft capital and move on from their defensive players on the back slope of their career.
The Jets seem unsure whether to blow everything up and start over or try to patch their roster and cross their fingers. After the in-fighting and blowout loss on Christmas Eve, Todd Bowles could be fighting for his job as head coach. The Jets are far from their promise of 2015.
THE BUFFALO BILLS:
The Buffalo Bills fired head coach Rex Ryan on Tuesday ending the long, drawn-out process of “would they or wouldn’t they” as the Bills continued their downward cycle. After the “Curse of Doug Flutie” (when Wade Phillips benched him for Doug Johnson), the Bills have failed to make the playoffs for all of the 21st century.
Whether it was the Gregg WIlliams error, the Mike Mularkey Mistake, the Dick Jauron bad old days, the Chan Gailey experience, or the Doug Marrone “get me the hell out of here” years, the Bills have been trying to recapture those glory days of the late 1980s and early 1990s when Marv Levy made the Bills the toast of the AFC.
The Bills made a huge strategic error falling for the bluster and bumbling of Rex Ryan two years ago. When Marrone bolted, quarterback Kyle Orton retired. Ryan bet on Tyrod Taylor and has lived and died with his ups and downs. The team severely overpaid for Sammy Watkins and the lack of draft capital the past two years has slowed development.
The hiring of Ryan seemed more PR than Football IQ and likely was driven by ownership to drive up excitement in the area and sell season tickets. Ryan is a very good defensive coordinator but likely blew his last chance as head coach. For all his mouthing off at the microphone, Ryan dropped the ball when it came to discipline and development.
The Bills are back to the drawing board for next season. They can walk away from the huge contract given to Tyrod Taylor but have only former first round draft pick EJ Manuel behind him. LeSean McCoy remains one of the best running backs in the NFL but will be 29 next year and will begin decline. He may have to be traded for draft capital.
At wide receiver, the one-two punch of Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods is solid–if Watkins stays healthy. Marquise Goodwin remains an intriguing prospect due to his speed. Tight end Charles Clay was one of the worst contracts given and the Bills are stuck with his inconsistency for another few years. The offensive line needs a talent infusion.
On defense, Kyle Williams is on the downslide and Marcell Dareus has been up-and-down but health and lack of discipline have contributed to him dropping off in production. Shaq Lawson was injured early and never made a big impact. What defensive coordinator and head coach are hired will decide a lot of who ends up where on the defensive line.
Jerry Hughes has dropped off a bit after getting his big contract at outside linebacker and Lorenzo Alexander has dropped off after a hot start. Reggie Ragland could be a contributor next year as injuries derailed him. Inside linebackers Zach Brown and Preston Brown have both stepped up this year and look like solid building blocks for the future.
In the secondary, the new coaching staff has a tough decision on cornerback Stephon Gilmore as he is finishing his rookie contract. Gilmore has tons of talent and natural ability but still gets beat too often. Ronald Darby has not duplicated his sticky fingers from his rookie year, but he still is an excellent cornerback. The Bills need youth and speed at safety.
The Bills have hit reset at head coach (and maybe general manager later in the offseason?) and whoever is in charge will have some difficult decisions to make heading into 2017. This could be another teardown and rebuild situation like what should happen in New York.
THE MIAMI DOLPHINS:
The Miami Dolphins are the latest AFC East rival to rise up and challenge the Patriots. New England needs a team to challenge them in the division and the Dolphins appear to be in good shape to be that team going forward.
First off, the Dolphins appear to have hit a home run in the hiring of head coach Adam Gase. An offensive genius (the man made Jay Cutler look good!), he has been better than advertised in the lead role. He is smart and level-headed and seems to be a solid leader at the head coach position.
His first order of business was to rebuild the offensive line and it has become the strength of the offense. Even without Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey, they block well up front making Jay Ajayi into a star at running back. They have kept Ryan Tannehill upright and with Matt Moore stepping in for the rest of the season and playoffs, the offense has not skipped a beat. Credit Gase and the offensive line for that.
Miami has a trio of talented wide receivers in Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker. Stills provides the deep threat, Landry can catch anything thrown anywhere near him and Parker is the big and athletic outside receiver. The loss of tight end Jordan Cameron has hurt as he is talented and none of the back-ups scare opposing defenses.
On defense, the Dolphins have struggled in 2016 despite a number of talented individual defenders. Kiko Alonso has surprised many with a strong bounce-back season at linebacker. The loss of veteran Koa Misi hurt the linebacker depth and neither Neville Hewitt, Donald Butler nor Spencer Paysinger are long term answers at the position. Jelani Jenkins has struggled this year after flashing potential last year.
On the defensive line, all focus is on Ndamukong Suh. Miami overpaid for him in free agency but he remains one of the most disruptive and talented defensive line players in the league. Veterans Earl Mitchell and Andre Branch are solid veterans. Cameron Wake has remained an elite pass rusher at age 34 returning to health while Mario Williams seems washed up at age 31. The Dolphins also get production from veteran Jason Jones up front while working impressive second year defensive tackle Jordan Phillips into the rotation.
One of the biggest surprises of 2016 was the play of cornerback Byron Maxwell. After struggling in Philadelphia, after coming over from Seattle, he bounced back with an impressive season in 2016. Opposite him, 2015 fifth round draft pick and converted wide receiver Tony Lippett has grown by leaps and bounds growing into a solid number two cornerback. Rookie Xavien Howard was injured much of his rookie season but is he is loaded with athleticism and has potential.
Safety Reshad Jones was a big loss as a torn rotator cuff ended his season early, but former Detroit Lions’ safety Isa Abdul-Quddus has been phenomenal in Miami and picked up the leadership role in the secondary. Bacarri Rambo and Michael Thomas are solid at the other safety position and nickel/dime sets.
The Dolphins could use an infusion of youth at pass rusher (former number three overall 2013 NFL Draft pick Dion Jordan should have been the future star replacing Cameron Wake but stupidity and knee injuries have kept him off the field for the past two seasons) and the linebacker unit could use another young and speedy player as insurance for the coming Kiko Alonso injury.
However, Adam Gase has cemented his case as the second-best head coach in the AFC East and the faith the Dolphins have shown in him has paid off. After a 1-5 start (beating only Cleveland in overtime), Gase has rallied his team to win nine of their last ten games heading into their Week 17 home game against New England.
The Dolphins should improve on offense and although getting a more difficult schedule next year for finishing second in the division, they appear to have the right ingredients in place to be the team in the AFC East that can push the Patriots in the division.
The New England Patriots’ franchise has had a stranglehold on the AFC East that is unparalleled in NFL history. In the salary cap era–where these kind of runs of dominance should not happen–the Patriots and Bill Belichick will win the AFC East for an NFL record eighth straight season in 2016.
The team’s dominance of the division is so complete that in the two seasons since 2001 where the Patriots did not win the division (2002 and 2008) they were still able tie for the division lead in victories and only lost out on the division crown and the playoffs due to tiebreakers.
As the Patriots head into their season finale against the Miami Dolphins (who have clinched a playoff spot for the first time since 2008), the question remains of how long the Patriots can continue their unprecedented run at the top of the AFC East?
THE NEW YORK JETS:
The New York Jets showed last week what a mess the franchise has spiraled into after narrowly missing the playoffs last season. The Jets had some good luck in 2015: tons of cap space inherited from former general manager John Idzik, the Ryan Fitzpatrick resurgence and a last-place schedule.
Although in desperate need of a rebuild, the Jets spent tons of money to bring back veterans on defense (David Harris, Antonio Cromartie and Darrelle Revis) while signing veteran offensive linemen, trading for Fitzpatrick to replace the disappointing Geno Smith and adding wide receiver Brandon Marshall for a late round draft pick.
Coming off a 10-6 season, the Jets made a few particularly egregious mistakes: they spent the entire offseason playing chicken with Fitzpatrick (rather than moving on from him with a younger quarterback), they signed another veteran on offense in running back Matt Forte (blocking any development of a younger running back) and they overpaid defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson rather than trading him away (as they had Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams still on their rookie contracts at the position) for some draft capital to inject youth into the franchise.
Now the Jets are halfway between a rebuild and trying to reload on a roster full of veterans. Wilkerson has dogged it in 2016 and Sheldon Richardson is destroying any trade value he may have had going into the offseason. Darrelle Revis is ridiculously overpaid and seems well past his prime at cornerback.
The quarterback situation is a mess as Fitzpatrick regressed to his mean, Bryce Petty was awful, Geno Smith got hurt (again!) and Christian Hackenberg has been hidden away in a secret bunker somewhere. Running back Bilal Powell should have been the lead back but Forte will be back next year.
At wide receiver, Brandon Marshall may be released to free up cap space or be traded away simply because he is one of the few veterans with any value. Eric Decker should be back to health and Quincy Enunwa has shown great growth, but the rest of the young receivers have shown little.
On defense, Richardson should go and rookie linebacker Darron Lee looks like the real deal. The Jets need more speed, less Revis and Buster Skrine at cornerback and Lorenzo Mauldin and Jordan Jenkins both seem unlikely to be the answer to their lack of edge pressure. The Jets need to load up on draft capital and move on from their defensive players on the back slope of their career.
The Jets seem unsure whether to blow everything up and start over or try to patch their roster and cross their fingers. After the in-fighting and blowout loss on Christmas Eve, Todd Bowles could be fighting for his job as head coach. The Jets are far from their promise of 2015.
THE BUFFALO BILLS:
The Buffalo Bills fired head coach Rex Ryan on Tuesday ending the long, drawn-out process of “would they or wouldn’t they” as the Bills continued their downward cycle. After the “Curse of Doug Flutie” (when Wade Phillips benched him for Doug Johnson), the Bills have failed to make the playoffs for all of the 21st century.
Whether it was the Gregg WIlliams error, the Mike Mularkey Mistake, the Dick Jauron bad old days, the Chan Gailey experience, or the Doug Marrone “get me the hell out of here” years, the Bills have been trying to recapture those glory days of the late 1980s and early 1990s when Marv Levy made the Bills the toast of the AFC.
The Bills made a huge strategic error falling for the bluster and bumbling of Rex Ryan two years ago. When Marrone bolted, quarterback Kyle Orton retired. Ryan bet on Tyrod Taylor and has lived and died with his ups and downs. The team severely overpaid for Sammy Watkins and the lack of draft capital the past two years has slowed development.
The hiring of Ryan seemed more PR than Football IQ and likely was driven by ownership to drive up excitement in the area and sell season tickets. Ryan is a very good defensive coordinator but likely blew his last chance as head coach. For all his mouthing off at the microphone, Ryan dropped the ball when it came to discipline and development.
The Bills are back to the drawing board for next season. They can walk away from the huge contract given to Tyrod Taylor but have only former first round draft pick EJ Manuel behind him. LeSean McCoy remains one of the best running backs in the NFL but will be 29 next year and will begin decline. He may have to be traded for draft capital.
At wide receiver, the one-two punch of Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods is solid–if Watkins stays healthy. Marquise Goodwin remains an intriguing prospect due to his speed. Tight end Charles Clay was one of the worst contracts given and the Bills are stuck with his inconsistency for another few years. The offensive line needs a talent infusion.
On defense, Kyle Williams is on the downslide and Marcell Dareus has been up-and-down but health and lack of discipline have contributed to him dropping off in production. Shaq Lawson was injured early and never made a big impact. What defensive coordinator and head coach are hired will decide a lot of who ends up where on the defensive line.
Jerry Hughes has dropped off a bit after getting his big contract at outside linebacker and Lorenzo Alexander has dropped off after a hot start. Reggie Ragland could be a contributor next year as injuries derailed him. Inside linebackers Zach Brown and Preston Brown have both stepped up this year and look like solid building blocks for the future.
In the secondary, the new coaching staff has a tough decision on cornerback Stephon Gilmore as he is finishing his rookie contract. Gilmore has tons of talent and natural ability but still gets beat too often. Ronald Darby has not duplicated his sticky fingers from his rookie year, but he still is an excellent cornerback. The Bills need youth and speed at safety.
The Bills have hit reset at head coach (and maybe general manager later in the offseason?) and whoever is in charge will have some difficult decisions to make heading into 2017. This could be another teardown and rebuild situation like what should happen in New York.
THE MIAMI DOLPHINS:
The Miami Dolphins are the latest AFC East rival to rise up and challenge the Patriots. New England needs a team to challenge them in the division and the Dolphins appear to be in good shape to be that team going forward.
First off, the Dolphins appear to have hit a home run in the hiring of head coach Adam Gase. An offensive genius (the man made Jay Cutler look good!), he has been better than advertised in the lead role. He is smart and level-headed and seems to be a solid leader at the head coach position.
His first order of business was to rebuild the offensive line and it has become the strength of the offense. Even without Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey, they block well up front making Jay Ajayi into a star at running back. They have kept Ryan Tannehill upright and with Matt Moore stepping in for the rest of the season and playoffs, the offense has not skipped a beat. Credit Gase and the offensive line for that.
Miami has a trio of talented wide receivers in Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker. Stills provides the deep threat, Landry can catch anything thrown anywhere near him and Parker is the big and athletic outside receiver. The loss of tight end Jordan Cameron has hurt as he is talented and none of the back-ups scare opposing defenses.
On defense, the Dolphins have struggled in 2016 despite a number of talented individual defenders. Kiko Alonso has surprised many with a strong bounce-back season at linebacker. The loss of veteran Koa Misi hurt the linebacker depth and neither Neville Hewitt, Donald Butler nor Spencer Paysinger are long term answers at the position. Jelani Jenkins has struggled this year after flashing potential last year.
On the defensive line, all focus is on Ndamukong Suh. Miami overpaid for him in free agency but he remains one of the most disruptive and talented defensive line players in the league. Veterans Earl Mitchell and Andre Branch are solid veterans. Cameron Wake has remained an elite pass rusher at age 34 returning to health while Mario Williams seems washed up at age 31. The Dolphins also get production from veteran Jason Jones up front while working impressive second year defensive tackle Jordan Phillips into the rotation.
One of the biggest surprises of 2016 was the play of cornerback Byron Maxwell. After struggling in Philadelphia, after coming over from Seattle, he bounced back with an impressive season in 2016. Opposite him, 2015 fifth round draft pick and converted wide receiver Tony Lippett has grown by leaps and bounds growing into a solid number two cornerback. Rookie Xavien Howard was injured much of his rookie season but is he is loaded with athleticism and has potential.
Safety Reshad Jones was a big loss as a torn rotator cuff ended his season early, but former Detroit Lions’ safety Isa Abdul-Quddus has been phenomenal in Miami and picked up the leadership role in the secondary. Bacarri Rambo and Michael Thomas are solid at the other safety position and nickel/dime sets.
The Dolphins could use an infusion of youth at pass rusher (former number three overall 2013 NFL Draft pick Dion Jordan should have been the future star replacing Cameron Wake but stupidity and knee injuries have kept him off the field for the past two seasons) and the linebacker unit could use another young and speedy player as insurance for the coming Kiko Alonso injury.
However, Adam Gase has cemented his case as the second-best head coach in the AFC East and the faith the Dolphins have shown in him has paid off. After a 1-5 start (beating only Cleveland in overtime), Gase has rallied his team to win nine of their last ten games heading into their Week 17 home game against New England.
The Dolphins should improve on offense and although getting a more difficult schedule next year for finishing second in the division, they appear to have the right ingredients in place to be the team in the AFC East that can push the Patriots in the division.
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