Home
Bonds v Shares
QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong
As a long time reader I rarely see you mention the possible long term benefits of also holding corporate bonds. I understand the obvious down side to government bonds and the reason for stocks to move higher, but since bond holders get paid before stock holders when things go bad would corporate bonds not be a lower risk investment.
Thanks for sharing your work.
TG
ANSWER: Corporate bonds of blue-chip companies will eventually move to a premium over government. We can easily see that when government was the place to run, the premium shifted to governments and then declined after 1932. If you are looking at high grade corporate bonds, towards the end of this bull market in shares, you would shift to corporate bonds – not government.
We can see historically, no relationship is ever solid or fixed. You can see that 90-day commercial paper was at a huge premium during the 1840s when banks were collapsing during the State Sovereign Debt Defaults. Then during 1930s you see 90-day commercial paper drop below government. This particular cycle you want to avoid municipal, state, and federal debt issues.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/bonds-v-shares/
» utube 9/16/24 MM&C Iraq Dinar Update - #xrpripple #iraqidinar - Electronic International Payments
» utube 9/17/24 Iraq Dinar Update --Sudani Sadr-Development-Pro
» Al-Sudani directs the preparation of a draft resolution obligating ministries to provide facilities
» Germany: Iraq is making progress towards economic stability
» Al-Sudani: There is no alternative but to have capable Iraqi banks that adopt all financial standard
» Iraq enters into space war confrontations.. Cyber attacks raid Tel Aviv and news indicates that th
» Contrary to expectations.. Al-Sudani's advisor: Non-oil revenues grew at record levels in 2024
» Central Bank of Iraq sells more than $250 million in auction today
» The Supreme Committee for Tax Reform reveals details of the draft of the new income tax law
» A Kurdish delegation will visit Baghdad early next week
» The Commission sets a date for approving the candidates for the Kurdistan elections
» Prime Minister receives Chairman of the Private Banks Association and a number of bank managers
» Parliamentary Investment Committee proposes solutions to cover Iraq's expenses.. What about border c
» Iraq signs $290 million loan agreement with Austrian bank
» The Council of Ministers is studying a decision obligating ministries to provide facilities to suppo
» Iraq of Four Million Employees: Will the Oasis of Jobs Last in the Desert of Opportunities?
» A parliamentarian talks about an Iraqi port in the Red Sea.. These are the details
» The housing crisis is deepening and housing unit prices are astronomical
» Najaf discusses with a specialized German company the establishment of a waste recycling plant
» Second reading increases the yield of calls rejecting the release of terrorists by general amnesty
» Prime Minister: The Central Bank has contracted with Oliver Wyman to develop the banking and financi
» Parliamentary Water Committee identifies the reasons for the continued drought and low water levels
» Al-Fatlawi: There are some parties trying to overthrow Al-Sudani's government
» Parliamentary Investment Committee calls on the government to intervene regarding the insane increas
» Iraq tightens preventive measures on imported goods, especially electronic devices
» Meetings attended by Al-Ameri.. Kurdish blocs unite to cancel Baath decisions regarding agricultural
» Oxford Economics expects Gulf economies to grow by 4.4% in 2025
» With Apple’s participation, the media and communications sector sets a roadmap to build a long-term
» Cabinet Secretariat: Stopping the sale of government properties to its employees is inaccurate
» The Ministerial Council directs the inspection of electronic devices before importing them to avoid
» The Prime Minister directs the preparation of guidelines to ensure fair competition in the banking s
» The Minister of Electricity directs the announcement and referral of the installation of solar energ
» Gulf central banks move interest rates after Fed decision
» Labor: Including allocations for increasing the salary of the full-time appointee in its budget for
» Non-oil revenues top agenda of parliamentary finance visit to Erbil next week
» Housing shortage threatens the stability of millions of Iraqis!
» The Department of Political Dismissals Affairs issues (3519) new decisions for politically dismissed
» Minister of Industry confirms the ministry's commitment to supporting and encouraging the private in
» Finance: Issuing controls to facilitate the implementation of the Owners Law
» Iranian oil official: Iraq owes Tehran no debts, and tripartite negotiations between Iran, Russia, a
» Proposal for employing graduates
» Al-Hasnawi to “Sabah”: Opening of 379 health projects
» The Ministerial Council directs to audit imports of electronic devices
» Launch of the National Climate Change Camp
» Facilitating the implementation of projects on the lands of military institutions
» Urgent measures to address the airlines file
» Warnings against relying on the “rentier economy”: Use effective systems and digital infrastructure
» "Courtesy" manipulates salaries of Kurdistan employees and Baghdad demands a binding political decis
» Opening of the 17th session of the “DBX” exhibition in Sulaymaniyah with the participation of more t
» Iraqi banks dealing with America attract deposits
» Iranians Stole Trump Campaign Material, Offered It to Democrats
» TikTok launches campaign to raise awareness of digital safety tools in Iraq
» Al-Sadr cancels the expected million-man demonstrations in Baghdad: “They are no longer useful”
» "Fares Issa" receives the Ambassador of the Republic of Poland in Baghdad
» Kurdistan Regional Government Representation Holds Training Workshop in Erbil
» The Prime Minister's Office receives the draft income tax law prepared by the German GIZ organizatio
» Finance reassures citizens: We are committed to paying salaries on time
» Oil disappoints hopes, Basra crude completes two weeks of decline: interest rate cuts backfired
» White oil rose 270% and kerosene 47%.. What is the secret behind the increase in fuel consumption in
» Ministry of Finance talks about the fate of employees' salaries and the reasons for the delay
» Baghdad government fails to implement the "generator meters" project and returns to "ampere pricing"
» Money from citizens and treating pipes with "plastic slippers" .. A service project in Diwaniyah tha
» Dollar exchange rates drop in Iraq.. This is the list
» Referral of the rehabilitation project of Imam Al-Sadiq II neighborhood to the judiciary
» Market monopoly is in danger... and the Parliamentary Economic Committee leads the correction battle
» Document warns of environmental danger threatening southern Iraq
» Central Bank Governor: We have put in place methods to secure the provision of dollars and are subje
» MP hints at corruption suspicions in $22 billion railway contract
» MP holds Al-Sudani responsible for withdrawing important laws from the House of Representatives
» Parliamentary Oil Committee accuses the region of smuggling oil
» The Council of Ministers decides to amend the price of industrial oil
» "Al-Eqtisad News" publishes the full decisions of the Cabinet session
» Parliamentary moves to increase state financial revenues
» New mechanism for collecting tax amounts electronically
» Iraqi oil exports rose yesterday to 3.5 million barrels
» South Gas: Integrated Gas Development Project is an Opportunity to Invest Local Hands
» Artawi Project.. A new energy that ignites the Iraqi economy and extinguishes the fires of waste!
» Al-Ghais: Taxes constitute the largest percentage of fuel prices in these countries
» Is the decline in oil prices related to the rise in exchange rates? An "important" clarification fro
» Iraq imports more than 722 million tons of gasoline in three months
» Hermes: Gulf investors have become more selective after the flood of IPOs in the region
» Real estate manipulators between the jaws of the "justice pincers"
» New crime
» Conference to support the private sector
» After the {Sabah} report... a campaign to deport {illegal} workers
» Al-Sudani: Amending the Drug Law raises the level of combating it
» Numbering Nineveh buildings in preparation for the population census
» Labor: Intensive campaign to deport “illegal” workers
» Emaar: The residential complex for journalists will be transferred to an investor
» Government organizes national conference to support private sector
» Real estate inflation
» {Hypermarket}.. Central markets with a new look
» Iraq calls on the international community to shoulder its responsibilities and stop the massacres an
» Al-Maliki's coalition explains the nature of the presence of Hamas and Houthi offices in Baghdad.. A
» What are the goals of Qaani's "secret" visit to Baghdad? - Urgent
» Al-Sudani: The heaviness of the energy system problem in transmission and distribution
» Parliamentary message to Al-Sudani: You have the dangerous Kar file in your hands.. Save public mone
» 15% tax on social media applications in Iraq