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Expectations of a major war in the Middle East with the participation of Iraqi fighters
Expectations of a major war in the Middle East with the participation of Iraqi fighters
Two experts, one of them an officer in the Israeli army, predicted a major war in the Middle East with its main parties, Israel, Iran and Hezbollah.
A report by IDF Major-General Nadaf Ben Hor and military expert Michael Eisenstadt noted that "growing tensions on Israel's northern border" raise fears of a confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah or a war between Israel and Iran in Syria .
The experts attributed these tensions to "efforts by Hezbollah and Syria - with the help of Iran - to produce high-precision missiles in Lebanon and Syria, which could paralyze Israel's vital infrastructure and make life intolerable there, on the one hand, and Iran's efforts to turn Syria into a launching pad for military operations against Israel And a platform to highlight the power of the Levant on the other.
The report noted that since 2013, Israel has carried out more than 130 strikes in Syria against "shipments of weapons destined for Hezbollah" and to expand such attacks since late 2017 to include "Iranian military installations in Syria.
The two experts warned of the possibility of "war on multiple fronts, and in distant places, and on the ground and in the air and at sea, in the field of information and cyberspace, by fighters from Hezbollah, Iran, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and even Yemen.
The report also suggested that such a war would be "the result of an unintentional escalation, following another Iranian action against Israel from Syria or following an Israeli strike in Lebanon or Syria (for example, against missile production facilities). It could start as a result of an American or Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear program. "
The report also saw the possibility of a war in the Middle East "as a result of a conflict that begins in the Gulf, but reaches the borders of Israel."
The experts put forward several scenarios for such a war, which is expected to erupt in 2019, the first of which is a "war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon," involving Iranians and foreign fighters.
The second scenario is a war on "Syrian territory between Israeli forces and Iranian forces" and pro-Tehran militants, "possibly elements of the Syrian army."
The third scenario, a war on two fronts "in Lebanon and Syria between Israeli forces and Iranian forces," and armed groups loyal to Iran.
The fourth scenario predicted the outbreak of a regional war that described its prospects as weak and its impact on the strong. In this scenario, the two experts inserted "Saudi Arabia, and perhaps the United Arab Emirates as well."
In this scenario, the two experts imagine that "Israel is responding to attacks on its vital infrastructure by air strikes or cyber attacks on the Iranian oil sector or even Tehran's nuclear facilities - with encouragement from the Gulf Arab states and possibly logistical support. Iran is retaliating against Israel, but it is also launching rocket attacks, subversive operations or cyber attacks on Arab oil installations throughout the Gulf, leading to an escalation there and possibly even military intervention by the United States. "
The report predicted that Israel's adversaries would try in such a scenario "to use ground forces to infiltrate Israeli lines and seize some Israeli villages and small military sites. They are also likely to use electronic warfare in support of conventional military operations (for example, to disrupt Israeli missile defenses), and perhaps against vital infrastructure, to achieve strategic impacts. "
The report acknowledged that Israel's opponents could achieve "small" gains in such a war, but its authors stressed that "Israel has greater chances of success compared to its enemies."
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