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Why can not Iraq dispense with external borrowing?
August 12, 2021
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Why can not Iraq dispense with external borrowing?
August 12, 2021
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Debt will exceed $100 billion (Facebook)
With the launch of [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] the Federal Financial Budget Law [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] the year 2022, and the end of the current government’s life, talk began about the details of the financial allocations that the government intends to put in the law, as well as how to propose appropriate solutions to the economic crisis that the country is going through, in addition to discussing the possibilities of internal and external borrowing. Even if oil prices were not at the level required to cover any expected deficit.
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Iraq's internal and external debt has exceeded $100 billion, according to official data
Finance Minister Ali Allawi had [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] on August 6 that "the 2022 budget that the ministry started preparing a few days ago will have a reformist dimension, as it differs from previous budgets and reflects the reality of Iraq's obligations," explaining that "the ministry will seek to raise this budget." It will be a reform budget, but it may be politically difficult.”
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Speaking about the size of the obligations that fall on Iraq, it is worth recalling the [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] , on January 25, in which he said that “Iraq is in talks with the International Monetary Fund to obtain a borrowing package worth 6 billion dollars,” and in the same context, it was Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi, during his recent visit to the United States of America, held a round of talks with World Bank President David Malpass, which included an Iraqi request for the bank to "accelerate the disbursement of more than one billion dollars as loans to support the government in projects ready for implementation."
And while Iraqi attempts to obtain external borrowing continue, despite the return of oil prices to recover from the pandemic, the economic advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, says that “the internal and external debts exceeded 100 billion dollars, indicating in [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] followed by “Ultra Iraq”, that it “includes 40 One billion dollars have been suspended since the eighties and seventies of the last century, as well as the accumulation of debts for the war against ISIS, and another estimated at 23 billion dollars is the cost of development projects provided by some international funds, all of which are payable.
For her part, a member of the Parliamentary Economy and Investment Committee, Nada Shaker Jawdat, considered the talk of dispensing with external borrowing as "difficult", citing the "lack of a real political will to pay it and stop its benefits," adding in an interview with "Ultra Iraq", that " In the 2021 budget, the interest on loans amounted to about $15 billion of external debt.”
According to Jawdat, "Iraq will remain in debt for the year 2050, if clear and real government schedules for external debt are not set and scheduled in a manner appropriate to the bad economic situation, and the pressures it faces compared to the available financial revenues, as well as warning against" the current government borrowing again from the World Bank. Under any pretext.
The current year’s budget was legislated, at about 130 trillion Iraqi dinars (89.65 billion dollars), with a deficit rate of 28.7 trillion Iraqi dinars, or 19.79 billion dollars, while expectations of the possibility of filling the deficit easily in light of the rise in oil prices above $ 70 a barrel after it was estimated in the law $ 45 due to the decrease as a result of the Corona pandemic.
The external debt is one of the most difficult files in the Iraqi economy, according to the economist, Mustafa Akram, who says in an interview with “Ultra Iraq”, that “Iraq is considered almost affiliated with the US Federal Bank, and according to the opinion of many government advisers, Baghdad should continue By withdrawing debts and filling their needs to avoid entering into other problems, such as international sanctions.”
Akram believes that the institutions that provide loans to Iraq, the source of their strength lies in "imposing sovereign conditions, as happened in the Paris Club agreement that chained the Iraqi state to stopping appointments and distributing land, and confirms that" similar to what happened with the government of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi in 2018, which repudiated of the conditions and did not complete their terms.
But the current government, according to Akram, is working on the opposite, as it is “trying to create foreign relations through debt at a time when Iraq does not consider it a need to borrow externally,” noting that “the government can be satisfied with internal loans through the Education Fund and there are more than 8 trillion, and a fund retirement, education, and social security.
The economic expert, Salam Sumaisem, points out that there are many problems in drawing up the country's economic policy, saying that "there is a gap in the financial resources, meaning that there are more needs than the proven real revenues."
In her interview with "Ultra Iraq", Sumaisem believes that "the continuation of borrowing in this way that has been used for years confirms the failure to develop a systematic economic policy in a way that indicates the actual alignment between resources and expenditures, usually with" very clear through tracking the progress of government policies, and the presence of space employees. The multiplicity of salaries, and corruption networks that contribute to the depletion of resources,” as well as “the need to reconsider the structuring of economic policies on the one hand, and the structuring of the Iraqi economy on the other hand, with logical and scientific methods for managing the economy, which has not been available so far.”
Sumaisem believes that "the people are the ones who pay the price for the government's inability to control the existing resources, in addition to its compliment to beneficiary parties by continuing to withdraw funds from abroad."
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A member of the Economy and Investment Committee believes that Iraq will remain in debt for the year 2050 if clear and real government schedules for foreign debt are not set.
The financial crisis in Iraq escalated after the drop in oil prices, which constitutes more than 90% of the country’s total public revenues, as well as the repercussions of the global closure as a result of the conditions imposed by the Corona pandemic, which prompted the government to stumble by not being able to pay the salaries of employees and retirees, and resorting to internal and external borrowing to fill expenses.
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