Why do the countries of the region reject the military alliance with America against Iran?
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One of the most important goals of US President Joe Biden's recent visit to the region is to persuade the Arab countries to enter into a military alliance that includes Israel and targets Iran, but the Arab countries came out to publicly declare that they disavow this alliance and say we are not part of any military arrangements targeting any country in the region. This is on the tongues of senior officials in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq, the Emirates, etc. Why did these countries repudiate this alliance that the United States is promoting?
Is it because this alliance includes Israel? Or is it targeting Iran or for other reasons?
Attempting to answer this question requires understanding the American conception of this alliance in greater depth. This alliance is not a new idea. President Trump in (2017 AD) put forward a similar idea and called it the (Strategic Alliance for the Middle East Countries), which was also dependent on persuasion of the Arab Gulf states, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq, in addition To Israel to form a large and comprehensive military alliance, and Trump's idea stumbled, at that time the (Arab NATO) appeared for the first time.President Biden came up with a similar idea, but its beginning is less ambitious and more modest, because it depends on cooperation between these countries, but on the level of air defenses, which the Israelis called (the Air Defense Alliance of Middle Eastern countries). The idea appeared for the first time when the Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz announced on June 20 The past that Israel and other Arab countries joined an air defense alliance led by the United States against Iran. And the countries of the region, which I hope will take another step forward during Biden's visit), he added, "The Middle East air defense alliance is not entirely new, but it is already in the works, and it has already thwarted several Iranian operations or attacks."On July 12, reporter Anshel Pfeffer, a correspondent for the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz, and a correspondent for the well-known British magazine Ekanemistl, published important details clarifying what the Israeli Defense Minister meant.
Anshel Pfeffer said, "The air defense alliance will depend on the integration and linkage between the various air defense systems of the US Central Command, based in Qatar. It has multiple air defense systems, whether inside the headquarters in Qatar, in the waters of the Arabian Gulf, in the Red Sea, or in other countries in the region with Israeli air defense systems with the existing air defense systems in all Arab countries) and he said, “The hoped-for goal of this alliance is being established, which has already begun work on it, according to Israeli sources, and the integration of a variety of electronic information collected by different sensors, which creates a real-time picture of threats.” Air defense systems in the area and interception) Every image and every information monitored by the air defense systems is electronic information. This electronic information will flow into one central command room, which is often, of course, the American command in Qatar, and this room will have a very clear picture inReal time, i.e. monitoring the target in seconds or minutes, and therefore this target can be dealt with, and that all the countries of the region involved in this system will be able to see what the American command room sees, and therefore any Iranian target is dealt with easily and in a timely manner, and the Israeli journalist Anshel Pfeffer added ( This alliance actually worked and began to be influential in the scene of events) and he is trying indirectly to clarify what the Israeli Defense Minister Benny Jenitz meant when he said (that this alliance is in the works and that it thwarted Iranian operations or Iranian attacks before) and the Israeli journalist referred to two operations.
The first operation: In February 2022 AD, when American fighters intercepted and shot down an Iranian drone, it was on its way to Israel on Iraqi soil.
The second operation: In March 2021 AD, when an Israeli F5 also shot down Iranian drones over the airspace of an Arab country, in coordination with the countries of the region. This was told by the Israeli army spokesman.
The perception that the Israeli journalist Anshel Pfeffer said and the words said by the Israeli Defense Minister are not entirely new because the former Central Command, who finished his job at the end of March, the first of this April, General Kenneth McKenzie, had spoken about it publicly in March, specifically on March 18 in his last press interview. At the Pentagon in his last directives, he will hand over his duties to a new commander.
But there is a big difference, General McKenzie. When he was talking about this integration between air defense systems, he was talking about a vision that the Americans aspire to achieve, but what the Israeli Defense Minister says, whose details were published, quoting Israeli sources, Anshel Pfeffer, says this is not just a concept, but a project that is under implementation. What McKenzie said on March 18 at the Pentagon?
He said many words, which are important words for a general who will retire and talk about his duties in this inflamed region of the world, but what concerns us now is that he still believes at the end of his term that the greatest danger to American interests and the interests of its allies is (Iran), and he identified this danger with advanced Iranian missiles and drones. (There are sufficient means to deal with this Iranian threat, the multiple air defense systems of the Iranian Central Command, and the defense systems that exist in all the countries of the region, but the ability to deal with Iranian goals will become better and better if all these systems are integrated) He said, (The real task now and how to link All of these (the different air defense systems in all the countries of the region that are friendly to the United States and hostile to Iran) lead to a result greater and better than the sum of the parts from collecting these parts alone) meaning that the performance of these systems after their integration is better than the performance of each individual system, because according to - General American - Everyone will see the sameEveryone will get an early warning, everyone will be ready to respond more quickly to any possible and obvious Iranian attack, as I understood from the air defense experts that (scenes - inches - meters) the few seconds of rain lead to a big difference in dealing with the target, the more you deal with the target The one you want to shoot down early, even if by seconds, whenever you lose it in a further area, even if it is raining. This makes a very big difference in the success of addressing the projectile, drone or missile that targets you.
In this step, the American ambition that he seeks, and the American general was talking about, is with the Americans at the strategic level, and not just a proposal by a retiring general, and it was paved with two steps that many did not notice.
The first step: When Congress passed legislation that seemed vague and confusing to political analysts, asking the Pentagon last June to work on coordination between the Gulf states, Egypt, Jordan and Iraq, so that their air defenses would be strengthened.
The second step: On September 1, it was a more important step, and it was also confusing and confusing for political analysts. I understand now, when Israel was transferred from the responsibility of the European region to the area of responsibility of the central American region.
Clarification: The US military divides the world into (11) regions. Each region has a scope of responsibility, i.e. it works to work within it, defend and cooperate with friendly countries in this region.
- European region: For example, you work in the European continent.
The central region is the Middle East region.
Central Asia. This is the area of responsibility of the American central region, whose leader until the first of last April was General McKenzie. It was natural when the American central region was established that Israel, by virtue of geography, would be part of the American central region, but Israel was not recognized by almost all the countries of the region and even The countries that recognized it early, such as Egypt in 1379 AD or Jordan in 1990 AD, were not ready to enter into an alliance and military cooperation with Israel. What happened recently is that in the case of broader acceptance of Israel after the Abrahamic agreements and with the growing influence of Iranian power felt by the countries of the region and accordingly the United States began to pave the way For greater cooperation between Israel and the countries of the region, and in order for this to happen, Israel had to return to the logical situation, according to American estimates, to be part of the Central Command. Israel to become insideThe scope of the central region's responsibility, which means that there is greater cooperation that America expects between Israel and the countries of the region.
The perception that the American general talked about reached what stage? Regardless of the Israeli claim that it has already been implemented, I mean, if we put Israel's statements aside, what is the position?
Arab countries, the reality of this American perception?
The best person to talk about this subject is The Wall Street Journal. In recent years, it has succeeded in a large number of singles related to the relationship of the Middle East or what is going on in the Middle East region and the relationship of the Middle East with the United States on June 26, it published a very important single about this The topic is (Middle East Alliance Air Defenses) and she said many more important words (that the military from America, Israel and the Arab countries met secretly in Sharm El-Sheikh last March to discuss this alliance proposed by the United States), and she identified and said that the soldiers who attended are (from Israel, Saudi Arabia and Qatar Egypt, Jordan, the Emirates, Bahrain and the United States represented by General McKenzie) and they said a lot, but the most important of them was the mechanism, techniques and secrecy that surrounded the meeting very much, and that the United States refused to comment publicly and that the Arab countries, of course, refused to comment, and the only country that accepted to comment on this meeting was the Emirates to say (I am not part of any military alliance inThe region targets any third party, especially Iran).
We will stop at three facts:
The first information: These countries have agreed in principle to coordinate with each other to confront any Iranian or non-Iranian dangers.
The second information: This coordination, notification and notification to each other will be carried out via the phone or computer, but not through the high-speed digital data sharing system, as happens in the US military.
The third information: that these understandings were not binding, because this meeting, which was preceded by a mini-meeting in which soldiers met at a smaller level that led to the largest secret meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh on March 22, was necessary to be followed by the blessing and approval of the political leaders in these countries so that the military could move forward in This unprecedented coordination between the Arab countries and each other and with Israel and the US Central Command.
This means militarily, regardless of politics
Experts confirm that if this step is taken between countries in any region of the world, what does that mean?
What the Americans and the Israelis are talking about begins with a very important technical step, which is that a team in this case comes from America, but it can come from any other country if it is ready to link a number of countries, the American team will come to coordinate between the air defense systems in the countries of the region This is a very complex and difficult process that no country can perform this task, which is to link the air defense systems between several countries as if these different countries are one country, and experts say that the number of countries capable of this complex technical task is very limited to Headed by the United States and Russia, of course.
Result: If this mission is accomplished, it will be in the command room of these countries, which are often the US Central Command, a complete radar image (a full radar field) from multiple systems that make those who sit in the command room a detector for the entire region, and thus this system can deal efficiently with any target targeted This area, and this step (integration) also entails that any new weapon that Jordan, Saudi Arabia or Egypt will obtain, if any country participates in this system, must be integrated into this system. Fighting in this system why?
Because this system is an air defense system, and if the new fighter is not integrated, it can be defined as a hostile target and therefore it will be hit, whether in the airspace of the area of operations. This is the mechanism that will take place and these results, but we can add a set of important information:
The first information: This is a very difficult matter, and we doubt that the Arab countries will accept it. Why?
Because the Arab countries, or any countries in any region, if they accept this integration, this means a complete exposure of their air defenses, everyone will become familiar with the encryption systems and target identification systems for neighboring countries and neighboring countries, you will see your systems, which means that your fighters will be identified as friendly targets or fighters Friendly targets in neighboring countries and fighters and projectiles of neighboring countries will be considered and identified in your air defenses as friendly targets and will not be targeted or intercepted.
First: This is something that means that the countries of the region that will enter into this alliance will be considered from the point of view of the defenses as one state, meaning that the Israeli fighters entering the Saudi-Kuwaiti-Egyptian airspace as friendly targets and vice versa.
Second: It is not only difficult for the Arab countries to do that, and that this is something that is only doubtful, but we are originally skeptical about the words of the Israeli journalist Anshel Pfeffer, and we believe that there is a confusion, intentionally or unintentionally, between the two incidents mentioned by Anshel Pfeffer, namely:
1- Targeting Iranian Drones on February 22nd.
2- In March 2021 AD, an Israeli F5 shot down the Iranian Drones.
In confusion, were the two targets of the Iranian Drones shot down with this new mechanism? Or American capabilities? Or American-Israeli capabilities?
Does America not have the ability to bring down these Iranian Drones away from this mechanism? Doesn't Israel have capabilities and capabilities that increase more in cooperation with the United States? Were these Drones brought down by the existing and superior American capabilities or the Israeli capabilities, even if it was in coordination in a specific operation with an Arab country, meaning countries that sought its permission? Or was this projection done with this complex mechanism that takes a very long time? The Arab countries accepted to be completed.
What distinguishes NATO is that it enjoys this great integration, but it took many years to achieve this integration, which is difficult to achieve in the Arab countries for obvious reasons and does not require much explanation.
After the words of the previous experts, we return to the question again, where did the position of the Arab countries reach? Or what is the position of the Arab countries on this American perception?
It was clear in the more accurate words of The Wall Street Journal that it is completely different from the words of the Israeli newspapers, and by the way, The Wall Street Journal spoke more than once that the Israeli newspapers sometimes exaggerate the level of normalization, harmony and cooperation between Israel and the Arab countries for understandable purposes. Whenever an Israeli official says that cooperation This reassures the Israeli interior and means that the Arab countries are ready to accept Israel without making any concessions on the Palestinian level. the Israeli arena.
But it is clear from the words of The Wall Street Journal that the Arabs are hesitant, with evidence that so far this is just a preliminary agreement, that the coordination, if it takes place by phone or normal electronic means of communication, is not by this mechanism, and that all of this is not binding until this moment.
There are words from some experts explaining to us and giving us the reason:
The first reason: the Arab countries’ reluctance towards this American perception. Acceptance of this perception means complete trust in America, complete trust in Israel, and complete trust between the countries that will participate in this mechanism. Trust does not exist, not only that the Arab countries do not trust America with all this trust. Of course, they do not trust Israel with all this confidence, but the Arab countries do not trust each other to this extent.
This is not strange, because not only the Arab countries that do not have all confidence in each other, but many other countries that have good relations, but they do not reach cooperation to this level, for example, China and Russia have good relations, does not mean that they open their airspace to each other and that the Chinese fighters Russian intervention is considered friendly targets and vice versa. On the Arab level, it is never a secret to anyone that there are sensitivities and mistrust between the Arab countries and each other and mistrust is what thwarted Trump’s vision in 2017 and they refused that their air defenses are integrated. It is not strange for a country like Qatar, which was under sanctions and boycotts from Arab countries, to feel the danger from this integration, and the Emirati and Saudi fighters enter its airspace and its air defenses. For Kuwait, the Sultanate of Oman, the Emirates, and so on.
In general and without equivocation, there is a general and old concern from the smaller Gulf states about Saudi Arabia's dominance of any alliance that it interferes with with its smaller neighbors.
The second reason: It is well known that the presence of Israel will complicate the issue. Yes, Israel’s acceptance has increased in the region, and the countries that are imprinted with Israel can buy systems and deal with them in special operations, etc., but not to the extent that the atmosphere of the Arab countries becomes exposed to the most advanced Israeli military capabilities. We do not forget that all the Gulf countries have this level of cooperation with the Israelis. The UAE has reached a relatively advanced level in cooperation with Israel, but so far Kuwait does not recognize Israel. Iraq not only does not recognize, it does not recognize and issued a law criminalizing those who promote normalization. The Sultanate of Oman, despite all the good relations, but they are good. It is from the logic of the Sultanate of Oman to be a mediator between all parties, but it has not been established with Israel until this moment, and so on. Therefore, there is a very difficult time in accepting and cooperating with Israel at this very advanced level.
The third reason (the most dangerous and important): This alliance is openly targeting Iran, and there is a dispute between the Arab countries in dealing with Iranian expansion and power, meaning that Qatar, for example, is ready to deal with Iran and coexist with it. Rather, it plays a mediator between Iran and the international community regarding its nuclear file on its soil. , Iraq is willing to be a mediator and friend between everyone and to play the role of mediator between Iran and the Arab countries, led by Saudi Arabia and on it. Part of any military alliance that targets any third country or specifically targets Iran.In general, there are Gulf states that will consider entering into this alliance an unjustified provocation to Iran that will bring them trouble, and they do not trust the United States or Israel, and the United States is a superpower and Israel is a militarily state, and therefore the United States and its daughter Israel can coordinate through this alliance to drag the region For a confrontation, the region is not ready for that and does not welcome it. Therefore, the region will be a loser to the accounts of the United States and Israel, which the countries cannot control.
These are the three reasons that make the Arab countries repudiate this military alliance that the United States is promoting and Israel is enthusiastic about.
It is expected: that the United States will gradually seek to obtain this for the alliance that it has been seeking since 2017, because it will achieve many goals for it at a very cheap cost.
Some experts believe that the United States does not support the countries of the region in the face of Iranian power in recent years, and this is not innocent, that is, it is not the result of the inability of the United States or its desire to withdraw from the region. If you want more security, there is no one in front of you except Israel. If you want a more prosperous economy, then there is no one in front of you except Israel. If you want me to close my eyes and close the disturbing files, then there is no one before you but Israel. All roads lead to Israel and Israel is present in all files, all projects, and all American perceptions of these. Region .
What can the countries of the region do in the face of this American urgency?
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