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Shafaq News/ The Institute of the European Council on Foreign Relations called on European policy makers on Saturday to draw their expectations about what the government of Muhammad Shia'a al-Sudani can achieve in Iraq, advising the government to learn from the "mistake" of the previous government.
And after the European report, translated by Shafak News Agency, indicated that the Euphrates Movement, led by the Sudanese, won only three seats in the 329-seat parliament, and he has a seat among them, and that prime ministers and members of the government are not allowed to occupy parliamentary seats, he said: The coordinating framework has 138 seats.
The biggest coalition
The report indicated that Al-Sudani is relying heavily on his largest partners in the coalition in this "fragile consensus" government.
In addition, the report pointed out that Al-Sudani was "compelled" to lead a cabinet that had only a minimal ability to interfere in their selection.
While noting that the distribution of government positions since 2003, according to an informal system in order to share power between Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish parties, he considered that this creates a political conflict with the aim of controlling ministries, which means that working to protect patronage networks, not implement Competing plans for governance remain the main driver of political power in Iraq.
In this sense, the report says that this situation shows the difficulty that Al-Sudani will face in passing his agenda from within Parliament, especially if it contradicts the plans of his allies who support him.
Jobs Challenge
The report indicated that the new prime minister will face pressures regarding the employment process in the public sector, especially given that many rooted parties consider employment as a tool of the pastoral system for their supporters, while the reformists are seeking to limit it.
security mission
The report added that Al-Sudani will struggle to manage the various security institutions, which are formally subordinate to him as commander in chief.
After noting that European and American policy makers define the state in part as the party that monopolizes violence, he pointed out that this has reinforced the priority of policies aimed at limiting the independence and influence of many paramilitary groups in Iraq, especially those affiliated with Iran.
The report considered that one of the reasons for the West's preference for the predecessor of the Sudanese, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, is their belief that he was trying to confront armed groups such as these.
Now, the European report indicates that the Sudanese government's work program includes the desire to restructure the security institutions, in addition to enhancing their professionalism and commitment to human rights, but it considers that there are no indications that the Sudanese government will go beyond verbalization with regard to security sector reform.
Sadrist Movement
In addition to the previous challenges, the report said that the Sudanese would also have to deal with the Sadrist movement, which it described as a political party and social movement that can also play in official politics and in the street.
Although the report pointed out that the Sadrists, after they distanced themselves from power by not negotiating shares of the ministries, it is likely that the Sadrists will maintain their bureaucratic positions, such as deputy ministers and general managers.
He added that it is not clear whether Sadrist leader Muqtada al-Sadr will resort to "street politics" with the aim of disrupting the hegemony of the coordination framework, and pressing for new elections in an attempt to form a majority government again.
The report clarified that the Sadrist movement, given that it is the only major political party that did not participate in the government, represents the main unpredictable factor, pointing at the same time to its great ability to mobilize, and that it is likely to try to win over any popular protests that may Appear.
outside players
The report stated that "external players will try to influence the course of Iraq," noting that Al-Sudani, like all prime ministers in Iraq, will have to deal with the strong influence of Iran.
He added that unlike many members of the political elite in Iraq today, Al-Sudani was not exiled during the rule of the Baath Party and did not develop his political relations as an exiled opposition figure, whether with Iran or with the West.
He pointed out that the Iraqis have often asked for a prime minister who does not belong to the opposition who were in exile because they consider that they lack the ability to communicate with people, or that they are, at worst, not loyal.
He continued, "The Sudanese may be relatively unknown to the West, but that does not mean that he should worry the Europeans."
He explained that Al-Sudani's lack of previous relations with the United States, Britain or Iran means that he may be able to work on expanding foreign policy by bringing Iraq increasingly closer to its regional neighbors, a goal that Al-Sudani set in his ministerial program.
The European report concluded by saying that European leaders should encourage this policy, especially expanding Iraq's role as a mediator between Iran and Saudi Arabia, adding that this is of great international importance given the increasing polarization caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the strained relations between Washington and Riyadh.
The report pointed out that the Sudanese government seems ready to continue foreign policy after retaining the foreign minister of the Al-Kazemi government, that is, Fuad Hussein.
a summary
The European report concluded by saying that "the political situation in Iraq is fragile, both internally and externally, and is based on fragile political alliances."
It is likely that the legitimacy of the Sudanese government will suffer in the face of increasing public frustration over the failure of the state to provide basic services.
Despite this, the report confirms that with the presence of these challenges, implementing reform is not an impossible task, explaining that "the Sudanese are an experienced politician, and he is the best option on the part of the coordinating framework for working with European allies."
The report called on the Europeans to continue to provide technical expertise in the fields of electricity and renewable energy, as climate change is absent from the Sudanese agenda, even though Iraq is one of the countries most exposed to the risks of global warming.
The report advised the new prime minister to "learn from his predecessor's mistake in making many promises and achieving little."
Translation: Shafak News Agency
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Including avoiding Al-Kazemi’s mistake.. a European call to deal realistically with the Sudanese government
Shafaq News/ The Institute of the European Council on Foreign Relations called on European policy makers on Saturday to draw their expectations about what the government of Muhammad Shia'a al-Sudani can achieve in Iraq, advising the government to learn from the "mistake" of the previous government.
And after the European report, translated by Shafak News Agency, indicated that the Euphrates Movement, led by the Sudanese, won only three seats in the 329-seat parliament, and he has a seat among them, and that prime ministers and members of the government are not allowed to occupy parliamentary seats, he said: The coordinating framework has 138 seats.
The biggest coalition
The report indicated that Al-Sudani is relying heavily on his largest partners in the coalition in this "fragile consensus" government.
In addition, the report pointed out that Al-Sudani was "compelled" to lead a cabinet that had only a minimal ability to interfere in their selection.
While noting that the distribution of government positions since 2003, according to an informal system in order to share power between Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish parties, he considered that this creates a political conflict with the aim of controlling ministries, which means that working to protect patronage networks, not implement Competing plans for governance remain the main driver of political power in Iraq.
In this sense, the report says that this situation shows the difficulty that Al-Sudani will face in passing his agenda from within Parliament, especially if it contradicts the plans of his allies who support him.
Jobs Challenge
The report indicated that the new prime minister will face pressures regarding the employment process in the public sector, especially given that many rooted parties consider employment as a tool of the pastoral system for their supporters, while the reformists are seeking to limit it.
security mission
The report added that Al-Sudani will struggle to manage the various security institutions, which are formally subordinate to him as commander in chief.
After noting that European and American policy makers define the state in part as the party that monopolizes violence, he pointed out that this has reinforced the priority of policies aimed at limiting the independence and influence of many paramilitary groups in Iraq, especially those affiliated with Iran.
The report considered that one of the reasons for the West's preference for the predecessor of the Sudanese, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, is their belief that he was trying to confront armed groups such as these.
Now, the European report indicates that the Sudanese government's work program includes the desire to restructure the security institutions, in addition to enhancing their professionalism and commitment to human rights, but it considers that there are no indications that the Sudanese government will go beyond verbalization with regard to security sector reform.
Sadrist Movement
In addition to the previous challenges, the report said that the Sudanese would also have to deal with the Sadrist movement, which it described as a political party and social movement that can also play in official politics and in the street.
Although the report pointed out that the Sadrists, after they distanced themselves from power by not negotiating shares of the ministries, it is likely that the Sadrists will maintain their bureaucratic positions, such as deputy ministers and general managers.
He added that it is not clear whether Sadrist leader Muqtada al-Sadr will resort to "street politics" with the aim of disrupting the hegemony of the coordination framework, and pressing for new elections in an attempt to form a majority government again.
The report clarified that the Sadrist movement, given that it is the only major political party that did not participate in the government, represents the main unpredictable factor, pointing at the same time to its great ability to mobilize, and that it is likely to try to win over any popular protests that may Appear.
outside players
The report stated that "external players will try to influence the course of Iraq," noting that Al-Sudani, like all prime ministers in Iraq, will have to deal with the strong influence of Iran.
He added that unlike many members of the political elite in Iraq today, Al-Sudani was not exiled during the rule of the Baath Party and did not develop his political relations as an exiled opposition figure, whether with Iran or with the West.
He pointed out that the Iraqis have often asked for a prime minister who does not belong to the opposition who were in exile because they consider that they lack the ability to communicate with people, or that they are, at worst, not loyal.
He continued, "The Sudanese may be relatively unknown to the West, but that does not mean that he should worry the Europeans."
He explained that Al-Sudani's lack of previous relations with the United States, Britain or Iran means that he may be able to work on expanding foreign policy by bringing Iraq increasingly closer to its regional neighbors, a goal that Al-Sudani set in his ministerial program.
The European report concluded by saying that European leaders should encourage this policy, especially expanding Iraq's role as a mediator between Iran and Saudi Arabia, adding that this is of great international importance given the increasing polarization caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the strained relations between Washington and Riyadh.
The report pointed out that the Sudanese government seems ready to continue foreign policy after retaining the foreign minister of the Al-Kazemi government, that is, Fuad Hussein.
a summary
The European report concluded by saying that "the political situation in Iraq is fragile, both internally and externally, and is based on fragile political alliances."
It is likely that the legitimacy of the Sudanese government will suffer in the face of increasing public frustration over the failure of the state to provide basic services.
Despite this, the report confirms that with the presence of these challenges, implementing reform is not an impossible task, explaining that "the Sudanese are an experienced politician, and he is the best option on the part of the coordinating framework for working with European allies."
The report called on the Europeans to continue to provide technical expertise in the fields of electricity and renewable energy, as climate change is absent from the Sudanese agenda, even though Iraq is one of the countries most exposed to the risks of global warming.
The report advised the new prime minister to "learn from his predecessor's mistake in making many promises and achieving little."
Translation: Shafak News Agency
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