Studies Center: Political polarization in Iraq contributes to the process of delaying the formation

[size=52]Studies Center: Political polarization in Iraq contributes to the process of delaying the formation of the government[/size]

[size=45]Translation / Hamed Ahmed[/size]
[size=45]In a report by the Center for Middle East Studies, it was stated that the country, which witnessed the end of 2021, the centenary of the founding of its Iraqi state, is now experiencing difficulties in forming a new government 50 days after the election results were announced, due to the weakness of the administrative and political system that was formed in the country after the year 2003, which was characterized by the delay in forming the government for many months after every election it has run since 2005.[/size]
[size=45]Although the constitutional timeline for the formation of the government after each election and the approval of the Federal Supreme Court on its results has been determined, the political conflict, the lack of clarity and the negotiations that followed that may extend the period of government formation for a period of nine months or more. According to Article 54 of the Iraqi constitution, the President of the Republic is responsible for directing the convening of the new parliament session within 15 days after the approval of the election results, and the current January 9 date has been set for the first session of the new parliament.[/size]
[size=45]An absolute majority in Parliament is required to form a government, and this is achieved by adding half the number of MPs present plus one, and voting on ministers one by one. Al-Kazemi's previous government, which was formed on May 6, 2020, only 15 ministers out of a total of 22 received a vote of confidence in them. As for the remaining seven, they were elected at different times in the subsequent phase. On this basis, the prime minister who will form the new government must guarantee the votes of 165 deputies if all 329 deputies are present in the session.[/size]
[size=45]The regime in Iraq used to form a national unity government based on sectarian quotas between Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds, but despite this, it is impossible to achieve administrative unity across the country. In addition, when there is no opposition that monitors the functioning of the government, parties that are not convinced of their positions begin to oppose within the government, and this in turn increases the political polarization that is characterized by managing political matters based on sectarian partisan identity.[/size]
[size=45]The report indicates that most blocs, within such a system of governance, are working to take care of their own partisan interests instead of serving the interests of the state, and therefore instead of creating a constitutional state administration, a fragile state structure appears with a weak and incompetent management of those in charge of it.[/size]
[size=45]The political scene is now tense between Shiite blocs represented by the Sadrist movement, which won 73 seats as the largest winning bloc in the elections, the State of Law coalition led by former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, which won 33 seats, and the Fatah Alliance led by Hadi al-Amiri, whose performance declined significantly from the previous elections and won only 17 seats. .[/size]
[size=45]Al-Sadr's statements to form a national majority government instead of a national consensus government, and insisting on this position despite his meeting with the rest of the competing Shiite blocs, caused more tensions.[/size]
[size=45]The most important issue in this tension is whether the Shiite groups will come to an agreement. As for the Sadrist movement, it has several options regarding the formation of the government. As for the current situation, al-Sadr can form a majority government through an alliance with the Kurds and Sunnis represented by the Progress Alliance, which won 37 seats under the leadership of al-Halbousi, and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, which won 31 seats. It could be an important step in the event that independent deputies and small Sunni groups merge with the Azm coalition led by Khamis al-Khanjar to collect 34 seats and join an alliance that advanced in the negotiations to form a government. The mathematical equation indicates that by meeting this bloc, it will be possible to collect a sufficient number of seats that would qualify al-Sadr to form a government.[/size]
[size=45]However, there is another obstacle, however, which is the need to achieve a required balance between the Sunni and Kurdish blocs and the competing Shiite blocs for the purpose of reaching a coherent and stable government, which was witnessed in the formation of previous governments. In this case, Al-Sadr has another option, which is to adopt the idea of ​​a majority of the national opposition.[/size]
[size=45]In the event that al-Sadr resorts to an opposition government, it is possible that Sunni and Kurdish blocs, which do not wish to participate in an opposition government, will resort to an alliance with other competing blocs and be a partner in the government’s executive process, in which Sunnis and Kurds share the positions of Parliament and the Presidency of the Republic.[/size]
[size=45]In light of these many expected scenarios for the formation of the government, it is a mistake to believe that the dark clouds covering this scene can dissipate and clear up quickly.[/size]
[size=45]Center for Middle Eastern Studies[/size]
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