August 7, 2024
Baghdad
The inability of the Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq, Ali Al-Alaq, to control the rise of the dollar has caused great concern among citizens, while voices calling for Al-Alaq’s dismissal have increased with the continued rise in the price of the dollar, which has left the fifties.
Rentier economy
Economic expert Abdul Rahman Al-Shaikhli said: “It is very natural for rentier economies to be affected by the events surrounding the “single rent” country, especially when it relies on foreign imports for all its daily needs, especially “soft” food products, which are completely relied upon.”
Al-Sheikhly told the "Iraq News" agency that any security or political disturbance will leave its negative mark on the local markets through a rise in prices and a shortage in supply.
He continued: “Based on the above and our certainty that there is a near consensus among neighboring countries to exploit such opportunities for political purposes, we must work hard to achieve near-self-sufficiency in such materials and try to produce them locally to create a state of reassurance in food security.”
Beware of falling oil prices
In detail: The financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, warned of the effects of the decline in oil prices in the global market on Iraq, which depends on oil revenues for more than 90% of its resources, while oil prices fell to $76 a few days ago.
“There has been a gradual decline in global oil prices for the past few days, as this decline coincides with the decline in the value of financial assets in the American and Japanese markets, especially the decline in the benchmark oil “Brent crude”, which is currently trading at around $76 per barrel for futures contracts after reaching nearly $88 per barrel last June, which requires more caution and economic foresight and what it may have of effects on our country’s financial resources in the coming period,” Mazhar Mohammed Saleh said in a statement followed by “Iraq News.”
“However, there are two possibilities that could limit the deterioration of oil markets to the bottom if they happen. The first is that the continuation of the current international geopolitical tensions in Eurasia, the Middle East and elsewhere will remain a pressure factor that does not allow the deterioration of energy resource prices (oil and gas) in the world, as oil is a strategic material that has priority in demand and storage in the difficult and exceptional circumstances that the Western world is going through. The second is that it is noted that the two most important economies of major Asia (which contribute to global economic growth, namely China and India) have not been affected by the current economic recession in Western financial markets, which means that opportunities for economic growth still require the sustainability of demand for energy resources, and oil in particular.”
Saleh said, “Even if some parts of the global economy enter a recession or reach a state of depression that extends for the next six months, similar to what happened in 2008 with the financial crisis (the mortgage crisis), the downward movement of the oil asset cycle and the occurrence of a glut in the oil markets may remain a temporary and short-term matter from our point of view.”
He pointed out that "the prevailing expectations until recently were that the global oil market was an optimistic market represented by rising prices, especially in light of the strategic adjustments in production by OPEC+, amid regional and international economic and political developments with varying impacts on global oil demand."
The government advisor explained that “the US Energy Information Administration had previously announced this year that it expected average prices to reach about $89 per barrel of oil and continue until the end of the year 2024, which encouraged the US oil market to invest in marginal shale oil fields with high extraction costs.”
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Again even in this the call for Al-Alaq's dismissal is being based off the parallel market issues. There is not mention of the non-oil revenues in play. Why is that? Is there an agenda at play? IT sure looks like it imo. ~ MM | | | |
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