The rotation knot of the three presidencies awaits Iraq after the elections

[size=52]The rotation knot of the three presidencies awaits Iraq after the elections[/size]

The Shiites monopolize the prime minister...and the Sunnis and the Kurds are thinking of exchanging roles
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]The absence of the leader of the Sadrist movement Muqtada al-Sadr and his largest bloc in parliament (Sairoon with 54 seats) and his broad obedient audience still worries Shiite forces and parties in the central and southern governorates, not to mention the cities of (Al-Sadr, Al-Shula and Al-Hurriya), the largest Shiite gatherings in the capital, Baghdad, which is divided sectarianly in varying proportions between Shiites and Sunnis. On both sides of Karkh (semi-Sunni) and Rusafa (semi-Shiite).

[size=45]In Karkh, which includes almost closed Sunni neighborhoods such as Al-Mansour, Al-Jami’a, Al-Amiriya, Al-Khadra neighborhood (other than the Green Zone in Karadat Maryam) and Al-Dora, as well as the approaches to the southern, western and northwestern Baghdad belt areas, there are major Shiite neighborhoods such as Al-Kadhimiya, as well as Al-Shula and Al-Hurriya. In Rusafa, which includes the largest gatherings of Shiite cities and neighborhoods, such as Al-Sadr, Sharq Al-Qanat, and others, there is the largest Sunni gathering concentrated in Adhamiya, as well as parts of Zayouna, Palestine Street, and Al-Waziriya.[/size]
[size=45]While the Shiites have monopolized the position of prime minister, the Sunni Arabs and the Kurds are now thinking, after four electoral cycles, that the Kurds' share was the presidency of the republic and the Sunnis the presidency of the parliament, exchanging roles between them. In remarkable statements, Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi declared that “Iraq is Arab, and therefore the presidency of the republic must belong to the share of the Sunni Arabs,” as distinct from the Kurds because they are Sunni.[/size]
[size=45]This statement angered the Kurds, who have within their influential forces in the political scene a major dispute over the same position: the presidency. According to the division between the two main parties in Kurdistan (the Kurdistan Democratic Party) led by Massoud Barzani and (the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan), Barzani's party assumes the presidency of the region, while the presidency of the republic is the share of the Patriotic Union. Indeed, three of the Kurds from Sulaymaniyah and from the Patriotic Union took over the presidency of the Republic in Iraq after 2003 (Jalal Talabani 2005-2014, Fuad Masum 2014-2018 and Barham Salih 2018). Now, as differences rage between the two main parties in Kurdistan, the issue of running for the presidency is not settled even within the ranks of the Patriotic Union, the party of President Barham Salih, although the joint head of the National Union Party announced a while ago that their candidate for the next presidential term is the same President Barham Salih.[/size]
[size=45]Barzani's party did not comment on such a nomination because, first, it did not announce an explicit position on whether it was considering the presidency of Iraq and abandon the semi-autonomous region or continue to give the position to its rival, the National Union, which is now beset with major problems due to the dispute over its leadership within the family of Jalal Talabani.[/size]
[size=45]Shiites, even if the position of prime minister is settled for them, but the raging dispute now is who will take this position and how the next political map might be even before the elections. Despite the fact that the Shiites are the majority of the population and parliament together, they fear a conspiracy being hatched in the dark that might rob them of the position of prime minister, as there is no text in the constitution confirming that it belongs to anyone (not Shiites, Sunnis, or Kurds). The variable that almost caused confusion in the political map in the country is the features of a Kurdish-Sadr alliance, which happened for the first time since the change in 2003. Shortly before al-Sadr’s withdrawal, a delegation from the Sadrist movement’s political body visited Erbil and met with the leadership of the Democratic Party and its leader, Massoud Barzani. At that time, the idea that there was an imminent alliance between Al-Sadr as the leader of the largest Shiite bloc and Barzani as the leader of the largest coherent Kurdish party spread, which would lead to a major change in the political map, including the redistribution of senior sovereign positions. However, al-Sadr's sudden withdrawal completely confused the scene and may have made the KDP recalculate on the level of future alliances. And if the alliance had been between Sadr and Barzani, the map of the division of presidential positions would have changed (Al-Sadr’s share will be the prime minister, as usual, and Barzani’s share will be the presidency instead of the National Union, and the position of the parliament’s presidency remains for the Sunni Arabs). Although the features of this agreement were very short due to al-Sadr’s withdrawal from the entire electoral scene, the Sunnis who are now engaged in a struggle between two Sunni leaders (Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi versus Khamis al-Khanjar) made them return to talk about the position of parliament speaker. And if the alliance had been between Sadr and Barzani, the map of the division of presidential positions would have changed (Al-Sadr’s share will be the prime minister, as usual, and Barzani’s share will be the presidency instead of the National Union, and the position of the parliament’s presidency remains for the Sunni Arabs). Although the features of this agreement were very short due to al-Sadr’s withdrawal from the entire electoral scene, the Sunnis who are now engaged in a struggle between two Sunni leaders (Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi versus Khamis al-Khanjar) made them return to talk about the position of parliament speaker. And if the alliance had been between Sadr and Barzani, the map of the division of presidential positions would have changed (Al-Sadr’s share will be the prime minister, as usual, and Barzani’s share will be the presidency instead of the National Union, and the position of the parliament’s presidency remains for the Sunni Arabs). Although the features of this agreement were very short due to al-Sadr’s withdrawal from the entire electoral scene, the Sunnis who are now engaged in a struggle between two Sunni leaders (Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi versus Khamis al-Khanjar) made them return to talk about the position of parliament speaker.[/size]
[size=45]According to the nature of the traditional political map in Iraq, the rapid alliance between Sadr and Barzani may have brought back to the fore what was previously called the historical alliance between the Kurds and the Shiites, whose wings were cut in the second government of Nuri al-Maliki to collapse completely during the government of Haider al-Abadi, especially after the Kurdish referendum in 2017 and its aftermath. From crises between the center and the region and subsequently between the Shiites and the Kurds.[/size]
[size=45]In the end, while everyone is waiting for whether white smoke will come out of the Al-Hanana neighborhood in Najaf, where Muqtada Al-Sadr resides, the muezzin of his broad movement to participate in the elections, the Sunnis and Kurds returned to the spectators’ seats in the vast and loose Shiite stadium, waiting for the decision regarding the position of the prime minister, which has become a dream By many, according to the expression of the independent politician Izzat Shabandar[/size]
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