An American magazine reviews a bleak future in the event of a complete withdrawal from Iraq

[size=52]An American magazine reviews a bleak future in the event of a complete withdrawal from Iraq[/size]

[size=45]The American “National Interest” magazine conducted a comparison between the experiences of the American role in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the mistakes made by Washington in the Afghan file, to reach a conclusion that the United States must reformulate its Iraqi mission, to be long-term on the basis of achieving stability for Iraq and building its needs, not Misguided compliance with Iran.[/size]
[size=45]And the report of the American magazine considered that "the withdrawal from Iraq is fueling instability, not easing it." She recalled the experience that ended in Afghanistan, in which the United States spent $83 billion over two decades, and ended with a rebel force seizing the country in this way, and the "shock" that the American nation felt about what happened.[/size]
[size=45]In addition to US intelligence failures, the report considered the most important factor to be "the weak assumptions made by US leaders about how the withdrawal will change the balance of power inside Afghanistan."[/size]
[size=45]He added, "These mistakes provide an important study to enrich the ongoing US withdrawal efforts in the Middle East, especially in Iraq."[/size]
[size=45]Although the magazine report noted the vastly different goals, scope, and security conditions of U.S. operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, it did note that the United States faces similar considerations regarding the operational capacity of partner forces, government legitimacy, and the will to fight — points that deserve attention as Washington withdraws. from Iraq.[/size]
[size=45]Noting that the United States relied heavily on Afghan forces for special operations, the report said that Washington and its partners in the international coalition did the same in Iraq, where they strengthened the counter-terrorism apparatus and developed the Iraqi security forces, but they did not cancel any of them's dependence on American support in the areas of air support. And intelligence.[/size]
[size=45]The report considered that "the Counter-Terrorism Service represents an important force to combat ISIS, and it enabled Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi to take limited measures against Iran's proxies." But he added that the Counter-Terrorism Service is only a small part of the Iraqi security forces and cannot fill security gaps on a large scale.[/size]
[size=45]He pointed out that US advisors are working to strengthen Iraqi capabilities to bridge these gaps, but it "will take time and long-term US political support to achieve results."[/size]
[size=45]Second, the report pointed out that the United States set wrong priorities in mitigating the risks of withdrawing from Afghanistan, and greatly underestimated the support the Afghan government needs to force the Taliban to enter into negotiations.[/size]
[size=45]Similarly, the American report considered that the United States had failed to enhance the legitimacy and ability of the Iraqi state to withstand the repercussions of the American withdrawal, explaining that “the Iraqi government is stuck between a reform protest movement and the malicious expansion of Iran’s proxies within the Iraqi state institutions, which prevents reform,” noting that despite Washington's support for Al-Kazemi's efforts to reverse the course of the Iraqi retreat, but it failed to secure the necessary support to overcome the influence of Iran's proxies inside Iraq.[/size]
[size=45]On the recent Iraqi elections, the report considered that “the loss of parliamentary seats in the October 10 elections by political parties allied with Iran should not be interpreted as a dead problem for Washington,” explaining that “the record low voter turnout constitutes a continuous and long-term challenge to the legitimacy of The Iraqi government, and it requires sustained American participation.”[/size]
[size=45]Also based on the Afghan experience, the report said that the US withdrawal may lead to similar effects, explaining that the United States eased the task of combating ISIS after transferring eight military bases to Iraqi forces and withdrawing nearly 2,700 soldiers, noting that the remaining US forces are stationed in Baghdad Erbil and the Al-Assad air base in Anbar, has already ended its combat role.[/size]
[size=45]He noted that this partial withdrawal has reduced the United States' ability to see in terms of the performance of the Iraqi security forces against ISIS and in competition with Iran's proxies expanding their destabilizing presence on major transit routes and in Sunni areas.[/size]
[size=45]He added that the Biden administration was indicating that a "complete withdrawal" could occur.[/size]
[size=45]The report concluded by saying that “it is unlikely that America’s withdrawal from Iraq would lead to ISIS taking control of Iraqi cities similar to the Taliban’s control, despite that, it would create a destabilizing vacuum that would accelerate the re-formation of ISIS.”[/size]
[size=45]The report also considered in its summary that “the new cooperation between the federal government in Baghdad and the Kurdistan region against the strongest ISIS networks in the disputed areas may falter in the absence of continued American support.” He pointed out that the growing tensions between militias allied to Iran, the Kurdish Peshmerga, and the Kurdistan Workers' Party in areas such as Sinjar, may lead to direct intervention from Turkey and Iran.[/size]
[size=45]The report concluded by saying that "the United States needs a more accurate withdrawal plan from Iraq, and retaining American advisers is necessary to be a balancing force for Iran, but it is also not sufficient to achieve security conditions and sustainable governance." He considered that "the United States will continue to face pressure in Iraq from Iran's proxies and adhere to the escalation until the withdrawal of all American forces, but the withdrawal from Iraq fuels instability and does not mitigate it, and the United States must reformulate a long-term mission directed to achieving stability in Iraq, based on its needs Instead of continuing the misguided deference to Iran.”[/size]
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