Will rising oil prices reduce the 2023 budget deficit?
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Baghdad today - follow-up
Economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi said today, Friday (September 8, 2023), that the oil revenues achieved until August 2023 amounted to 61.513 billion dollars, equivalent to 80 trillion dinars, while the oil revenues estimated in the 2023 budget = 90 billion dollars, equivalent to 117 million dinars. One trillion dinars.
Al-Marsoumi wrote in a blog post on his personal account on the “Facebook” platform, which “Baghdad Today” followed, that “if high oil prices continue and Iraq sells its oil at $85 per barrel, it is possible for Iraq to achieve oil revenues of $8.7 billion per month during the remaining third of the year.” this year".
He continued, "Iraq will achieve oil revenues that may reach 34.8 billion dollars from September to December 2023. Thus, the oil revenues actually achieved in 2023 will amount to about 96.213 billion dollars, or 125 trillion dinars, and then the actual oil revenues in 2023 will achieve a surplus of 6.213 billion dollars." That is, 8 trillion dinars, which will reduce the deficit in the 2023 budget by the amount of the surplus in oil revenues, provided that all non-oil revenues are realized, estimated in the 2023 budget at about 17 trillion dinars, which may be unlikely, especially since the net non-oil revenues achieved during the first half of 2023 did not exceed 421 billion dinars, and therefore the high price of oil will not significantly reduce the budget deficit in 2023 if it continues.”
It is noteworthy that during the past year (2022), Iraq achieved financial revenues of more than 115 billion dollars as a result of the export of crude oil, to be the highest in years, according to the official figures announced by the Iraqi Ministry of Oil.
According to these figures, the daily export rate reached 3 million and 320 thousand barrels, which is a total of one billion and 211 million and 800 thousand barrels for an entire year.
Economic expert Nabil Al-Marsoumi announced on Monday (September 4, 2023) that Iraq achieved the highest trade surplus last year, 2022, while indicating that the rise in the trade surplus has nothing to do with reform.
Al-Marsawi, in a blog post published on his personal account on the Facebook platform and followed by “Baghdad Today,” summarized the reasons for Iraq achieving the highest trade surplus last year, pointing out that the surplus is “the difference between exports and imports of goods.”
He continued, “The surplus achieved for the year 2022, throughout the history of the oil industry, which is approaching a hundred years old, as the surplus amounted to 53.54 billion dollars due to the rise in oil exports in 2022 to about 120 billion dollars, of which 115 billion dollars are for crude oil exports and 5 billion dollars are mostly Of black oil exports.
Al-Marsoumi continued, “This means that the rise in the trade surplus in Iraq has nothing to do with reform, development, diversification of the economy, or any self-efforts, but rather it is linked to an external variable, which is oil prices, whose annual average in 2022 reached more than $95 per barrel.”
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