Power Line with Türkiye: Iraq in the Midst of a Wider Strategic Energy Shift

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[size=52]Power Line with Türkiye: Iraq in the Midst of a Wider Strategic Energy Shift[/size]

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2024-08-08
The American “Middle East Institute” stated that the new electrical connection between Iraq and Turkey represents part of the strategic shift that Baghdad is making in its energy options to connect with regional countries and reduce dependence on Iran.[/size]
[size=45]The translated report indicated that Baghdad opened on July 21 the new power line linking Iraq to Turkey, a 115-kilometre line that is supposed to deliver 300 megawatts of energy to the West Mosul power station with the aim of supplying northern Iraq, including the regions of Nineveh, Salah al-Din and Kirkuk.[/size]
[size=45]The American report pointed out that the new power line comes at a critical time, as Iraqis suffer from the summer heat and continuous power outages, as a result of decades of wars and the fragility of the infrastructure that made Iraq, which is rich in energy resources, dependent on imports, especially from Iran.[/size]
[size=45]The report said that Iraq, in an attempt to enhance energy security and diversify its sources, is integrating the new energy line into a broader strategy to join the regional energy grid, adding that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani considers the project a “strategic” step to connect Iraq with its neighbors and reduce its dependence on Iranian gas.[/size]
[size=45]The report continued that Iraq is operating this new energy line in order to secure a more stable energy future for itself and to reshape its geopolitical alliances. This strategic shift, which combines new energy ties with Turkey and the United States, is expected to limit Iran’s influence in Iraq and could negatively affect bilateral relations, depending on how Tehran reacts in the future.[/size]
[size=45]The report considered that the new power line reflects the changing geopolitical dynamics in the region, noting that Iraq seeks to expand its energy partnerships with Turkey, while this new connection represents an important part of the “Development Road” project, while Ankara seeks to reformulate regional dynamics in its favor and enhance its geopolitical influence.[/size]
[size=45]Meanwhile, the report says Baghdad is also making a broader push to strengthen its ties with the GCC and other regional players, such as Jordan, including in the energy arena, where Iraq recently began importing electricity from the kingdom. The report recalled what Al-Sudani said on July 21 that Baghdad seeks to complete its connection to the GCC electricity grid “by the end of this year.”[/size]
[size=45]The report noted that these developments come at a time when Iran is facing its own challenges as an energy supplier, adding that Tehran is struggling to achieve its energy production targets and is facing major problems with its electricity supplies, with power outages a recurring problem, especially during the summer, affecting both the residential and commercial sectors.[/size]
[size=45]The report added that Iran provided about 1,200 megawatts of energy per day to Iraq, in addition to about 25 million cubic meters of natural gas, under the terms of the 2013 agreement. Tehran and Baghdad also signed a new agreement in March 2024, under which Iran pledged to supply about 50 million cubic meters of natural gas per day for five years.[/size]
[size=45]However, the report said that the disruption of Iran’s electricity supply poses a risk to the country’s energy industry and its ability to export energy, while this relationship faces additional challenges, including the temporary nature of the waivers from US sanctions that allow Iraq to buy Iranian electricity, in addition to recent efforts to enhance the diversification of Baghdad’s external energy sources through projects such as the new power line between Iraq and Turkey, in addition to the campaign to develop domestic energy in Iraq, including agreements with the United States and other countries to enhance electricity generation and explore new energy partnerships.[/size]
[size=45]Gulf and America[/size]
[size=45]The report concluded by saying that the goal of Iraq’s current engagement with Gulf and American allies is to limit Iran’s significant military, political and economic influence, noting that Al-Sudani signed memoranda of understanding on trade and energy during his visit to the United States in April, and during Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Iraq in June, while a strategic step is being taken towards establishing stronger economic relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with the aim of reducing Iraq’s dependence on Iran, noting that placing Iraq within US-led regional initiatives, such as the GCC electricity grid, is part of this effort.[/size]
[size=45]After the report said that Washington supports Iraq's efforts to enhance energy security, secure funding for new energy infrastructure projects, and collect associated gas from its oil fields, it pointed out that Iraq's dependence on Iranian energy has decreased in recent years, as a result of these efforts, as it decreased from an estimated 40% to 25%, with the aim of reaching energy self-sufficiency by the year 2030.[/size]
[size=45]The report considered that Iran views these developments as a threat, recalling the retaliatory action represented by the drone attack on the Khor Mor gas field in April 2024. The report expected that tensions would remain high in the future, although Iraq’s strong ties with the United States and the Gulf states may provide some protection against Iranian pressure.[/size]
[size=45]The report concluded that Iran’s position as a major energy supplier to Iraq is at risk as Baghdad continues to diversify its energy sources, adding that by reducing its dependence on Iranian electricity and enhancing domestic energy security, Iraq’s new electricity connection with Turkey could limit Iran’s influence in the Iraqi energy market. He continued by saying that depending on Iran’s response to its declining influence in Iraq, this strategic shift, which includes new energy entanglements with Turkey and the United States, could lead to tensions between Baghdad and Tehran.[/size]
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