[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]Conflict on oil cake ..... production quotas in OPEC to where? d. Successful Obeidi
Continue behind the scenes of the world oil market hidden war and attempts to arm -twisting between the major producers and at the time was still a price collapse and thenightmare of shale oil Ajiman on the global energy market. Although the parties to theconflict to try not to reveal their cards, but the facts and figures confirm that the balance ofthis market map currently undergoing profound structural changes will have political and economic implications beyond the oil sector. And put all ofthat Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at a difficult test. Throughout the last oil boom ,which lasted from 2002 until mid - 2014 , the key players did not find, led by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and Venezuela have a reason to enter into open conflict as long as the demand for fine and prices available to all surpluses financial rewarding. But the situation has changed radically as of June 2014 , when prices began todecay of which put many countries in a severe financial crisis. That escalated voices claim to cut production to restore balance to the market. But the important question is who will bear the burden of reducing production, especially since everyone does not want to alienate its share in the market. Production between theory and practice quota system does not look like OPEC is currently in a position likely to return soon to the production quota system. Differences between the Gulf Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia and the other members , such as Iran, Iraq, Venezuela and Algeria at the height of which portends the arrival of these conflicts to break thebone stage. Also due to the insistence of Saudi Arabia on its position that oil prices are subject to themechanism of the market, supply and demand. With the validity of this position in theory but it contrasts with the goal of OPEC installer in its rules of procedure adopted by the conference held in Baghdad in Spettmr / September 1960, which confirms that the organization seeks to coordinate the oil policies of the Member States and to adopt ways and means to maintain price stability and avoid sharp where volatility. One of themost important of these methods is to agree on production quotas. And it has already been reached in theeighties after arduous consultations to develop criteria for the distribution of quotas among Member States.These criteria are divided into two groups: The first relates to the oil resource itself include the size of proven reserves and actual production and productivity available capacity and domestic consumption and production costs. The second group relates to the socio-economic standards of the population and the degree ofdependence on oil exports and external debt. However , it is clear that these standards are not subject tospecific measures of quantified and thus leave the Member States very little room to maneuver in order toincrease its share at the expense of others. That is why we can say that the history of production quotas is also the history of overtaking them publicly and privately. It is striking that OPEC did not declining production in recent years and despite a sharp decline since June 2014 and has kept, at least formally, on a production ceiling of 30 million barrels per day, thereby ignoring the circumstances coup upside down. Era Arabia gold in decline during the years followed by the founding of OPEC in 1960 in Baghdad it was not Saudi Arabia has the lion 's share of production, but production was lower than for the production of Venezuela, Kuwait and not much higher than the production of Iraq or Iran. Even in the mid - seventies was the role of Saudi Arabia isvery similar to the role of Iran under the Shah end when production peaked in 1974 , recording more than 6 million barrels per day. In the same period the Iraqi production has been rising steadily. With the approach of the end of this decade of dominance Features Arabia began to emerge on the capabilities of OPEC. Then theIslamic revolution in Iran and the Iran-Iraq war came to Tchrisa dominant role of kindergartens in the energy market. Saudi Arabia has succeeded in exploiting this paper smartly. After the oil shock in the early seventies began to look west to Saudi Arabia as the most important guarantor of energy supply and thus the growth of the global economy. Riyadh and turned into an important stabilizing downtown area rife with unrest element.In contrast cemented speech "Althoroa" and hostile regimes of Iran and Iraq convinced of the futility ofrelying on Tehran and Baghdad. Thanks to its role within OPEC Saudi Arabia did not succeed in stabilizing its privileged position in the Middle East as one of the most important Western allies, but also reaped huge financial gains were not dreamed of . According to OPEC data released by Saudi Arabia just five years between 2010 and 2014 "black gold" worth approximately US $ 1454 billion (nearly a trillion and a half trillion dollars) , a figure astronomical sense of the word. This means that Riyadh was received during this era the"Golden" oil revenues worth some billion dollars a day. Kingdom did not skimp on using this huge wealth part to ensure Scott "parish" inside the country only, but also to gain allies and purchase of receivables and loyalties in the region. But the Saudi role in recent years began to face significant challenges. Against the backdrop of the steady increase in shale oil production in the United States dropped the US dependence on oil coming from the Middle East. That has raised fears of isolation of Saudi Arabia and Washington for the region and for gradually abandoning its ally Riyadh. Against the backdrop of these concerns can understand a lot of steps in the area of Saudi Arabia 's oil as well. At the same time Saudi Arabia felt that dominance within OPEC began facing the threat of the parties as long as they look to Saudi Arabia with envy. Strong return to Iraq and Iran after decades of reclusion Iraq returned to break into the oil market strongly , recording significant increases in oil production. In early 2016 , Iraqi Oil Minister Adel Abdul - Mahdi said that the production was about 4.8 million barrels per day , bringing to its highest level ever. Thus , Iraq sent the message that OPEC no longer accept the role of secondary partner despite the security, political and economic challenges.Certainly, this increase contributes to the alleviation of the financial crisis experienced by Iraq due to thecollapse of prices. For its part , Iran is showing strong ambitions to increase its stake in OPEC, especially after the nuclear deal with the major powers and lift sanctions against it. Most estimates suggest that Iran isseeking in the coming period to inject an additional amount of one million barrels per day. In tone unambiguous Minister Bijan Zanganeh Iranian oil has repeatedly stressed that Tehran would not anyone asking her permission (What is meant here OPEC) to increase oil production. It is clear that both Baghdad and Tehran mornings to find the time has come to trim claws Arabia within OPEC. Hence , Iraq, Iran has shown no enthusiasm to join the Doha agreement between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Russia and Venezuela judge tofreeze production at the January 2016 level as countries continue to announce their plans ambitious plans to increase production still Saudi Arabia betting that low prices will be a serious blow to these plans and it will make it useless. Saudi Arabia hopes that exposed the rest of the competitors, led by Russia and the United States similar fate. But today proved that flood the market policy and the removal of competitors double-edged sword, as the magic began to turn against the magician and now Saudi Arabia itself is facing increasing financial difficulties in light of the continued glut in the oil markets. Stage painful adjustments after 55 years of its inception find OPEC itself in an unenviable position . Even if prices returned to recover again, the OPEC so far remained indifferent towards the wave of falling prices is the longest since decades. The lack of action in the first place , under pressure from Saudi Arabia , which is struggling by all means in order to keep its market share without regard to the interests of others. But other big producers will not surrender and Sissaron with all their forces in order to defend their positions in the oil market. This means that the coming years will see intense struggles will change the balance of prevailing in the global energy market forces. The differences between the major producers continue conviction began to take hold slowly that danger hangs over everyone 's interests might pay to reach a certain understandings about the production ceiling and the distribution ofshares among the oil -producing countries. Perhaps the Doha agreement to freeze production becomes aprelude to cooperation between OPEC and Russia and other producers to announce production cuts. In these circumstances it does not rule out returning to OPEC, and as happened in the earlier stages, to agree on anew reference price and take action to intervene in the market , rather than leaving it as it sees fit without going controls. In this case , only apply the description on OPEC as a "cartel of oil."