The end of the oil age and the beginning of the gas age. Iraqi gas investment prospects

The end of the oil age and the beginning of 
the gas age. Iraqi gas investment prospects

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Thursday 07 May 2020

Abdul Hussein Al-Hanin
 
I promised in the previous article (China agreement in the face of the illusion of fair price of oil) to write to you about the investment of Iraqi gas and admitted to saying that I am trying not long ago to get to know closely about Iraq's actual need for gas and proven reserves and the possibility of investing Iraqi gas, and I hesitated to go into the numbers because of the uncertainty surrounding this file in good faith or perhaps intentionally and serious differences between what we hear or read in our official documents and between the international statistical, including the annual bulletin of Bp Petroleum, which provides Annual statistics on the energy sector of all kinds and uses all over the world. 
 
The goal is to know how to get rid of imports that carry economic dimensions in the medium and long term, political and security dimensions linked to the U.S. sanctions against Iran and the process of renewal of exemption (Waiver) by the United States after making sure that Iraq is serious about investing its gas wealth in a way that provides a reasonable alternative to the import of Iranian gas, knowing that this verification process was not iraq's party or any assessment of that alleged seriousness determined by the American side according to its own criteria.
Whatever the political clash in this sector, it must be recognized that Iraq has wasted many opportunities to be an influential player in the global gas industry, and my friend (Dr. Abdul Karim Hashem), who served as Iraq's ambassador to Moscow, told me that in 2005 the Russian Federation invited Iraq to join as a full member of the GECF Gas Exporting Countries Forum, which was established in 2001.  But the response of the Iraqi government at the time was negative on the grounds that Iraq is an oil country and that gas is not a priority for us while the Russians confirmed that Iraq has a promising gas reserve that puts it in the tenth place in the world then and there are countries in the forum that are less than Iraq in terms of reserves became a member of the forum, and unfortunately Iraq returned to join the forum in 2012 as an observer member during the 14th ministerial meeting of the forum countries held in Equatorial Guinea knowing that the forum will be taken from the capital. Qatar Airways Headquarters

Him.
In practice, Iraq will still need to import more than 1,000 cubic feet (1 million standard cubic feet from abroad for at least the next three years if the Ministry of Oil is able to implement all of its paper-based plans, namely, to reach the target of 3,500 mq/day by the end of 2022, which means that Iraq will be able to invest a large part of the reserves available in the reservoir in addition to the gas supply of the gas. The total power generated from the total generation capacity designed to operate with natural gas fuel sits at an estimated 4,500 mw of dry natural gas until 2020 and corresponds to the production of 18,000 micAhs of electricity produced from the total generation capacity designed to operate with natural gas fuel, where it is hoped that the reliance of gas units will be stopped from relying on crude oil, gas or fuel oil, meaning that all of our gas plants (ready for operation or still under construction) will be powered by gas. Economically, it means that the efficiency of generating units will increase by at least 20%, reduce the cost of maintenance spending and the cost of using additive chemicals to improve fuel. 
But it must be borne in mind that the need for more gas will continue to rise as electricity production increases and expands its use in industry and other real production sectors, and that the target that we should target according to the data available to me is to operate 32,000 megawatts on gas in 2025 produced from simple cycle units that rely on gas as fuel and conversion from which it has not yet been converted into combined cycle units.
Iraq's natural gas reserves, which are currently in the 12th largest in the world, are 125.6 trillion cubic feet standard according to bp's annual statistics for 2018. In theory, if we consider that gas will be directed to electricity only, it is enough to produce 33,000 mica watts of electricity (gas-powered composite units) for 60 years at a consumption rate of 5,500 meters per day, provided that all gas stations are converted to the installed cycle.
It is worth mentioning that most of Iraq's natural gas production is currently a natural gas associated with crude oil production, with current production rates of 3,094 mqm/day, 1,519 mqm/day of which are invested and processed in treatment facilities within Basra Gas Company (The Treatment Complex in Khor al-Zubair and The North Rumaila Processing Complex), as well as the processing complex of The North Gas Company and treatment within the Central Oil Company in badra and Al-Ahdab fields, where an average of 9 are produced. 29 mqm/day of dry gas allocated as fuel for power plants (with other current and future uses in the industrial and agricultural sector) with a pumping volume (75 mq/day directly to the network without processing) as well as producing an average of 4,316 tons/day of LPG for domestic use as well as producing 1,241 tons/day condensed capacitors (Condensed) Unfortunately, we are still burning large quantities of gas at a rate of 1,575 mq/day, which is a very large waste of resources that requires treatment for investment, which is sufficient to prevent full imports.
When we say that the oil age is beginning to draw its ends, this does not mean the end of its use, for example, coal did not run out of coal in our planet, but the age of coal ended and the world turned to the oil age due to technological advances, economics, environment and others, as well as we will not see the end of the era of oil dominance and enter the golden age of gas, which will be considered a time bridge beyond 50 years to enter the world era of clean, environmentally friendly renewable energy of all kinds. 
One of the undeclared causes of the war in Syria may be the dispute over sovereignty in the European gas market in general and globally after it was confirmed that the largest reserves on the planet are stable in three countries (Russia, Iran and Qatar) Qatar, which shares with Iran the Pars field extending under the Gulf waters, where both countries are racing to invest more than in bilateral (friendly) competition with Russia, and it seems that the Russian-Iranian gas axis has made significant gains especially after the Gulf crisis and qatar's accession to this axis. The seriousness of the issue in the energy market is that these three countries have 48.5% of the world's natural gas reserves, with Iran, Russia and Qatar owning 95.5 trillion cubic meters of the world's total natural gas reserves of 197 trillion cubic meters, according to BP, the proven number of global gas reserves is enough to power the world for at least 50 years at pollution rates.

Very little compared to oil and coal.
Qatar has begun talks with Tehran to find a compromise on the exploitation of the South Pars gas joint gas field and to find some kind of partnership in the development of this joint field, the world's largest treasury with 51 trillion cubic meters of gas, and the extension of a joint pipeline from Iran to the Mediterranean or Turkey that will carry Qatari gas to Europe. The Chinese People's Bank officially recognized Qatar as the middle east's first center for liquidating transactions in Chinese currency (YUAN), and in practice, French gas giant Total has begun a major gas production contract, estimating the total costs of the first phase of the project to be about $2 billion, after discussions continued for 20 years, although the United States continues to impose restrictions on preventing U.S. and Western companies from investing in Iran, and some Western companies are still reluctant to invest in Iran, which faces sanctions that prevent companies from dealing with Iran in dollars. American. 
Under the contract, Total will own a 50.1 percent stake in the South Pars field project, which Qatar calls the "North Field", and China's CNPC will own 30 percent, while Iran's Petrobas will own 19.9 percent.
The important question is whether Iraq can be a partner in these major projects, especially since Iraq belongs to a group (one road, one belt), and iraq's membership has increased stronger and more influential after the signing of the financial framework agreement with China and the possibility of Iraq being a transit corridor for Qatari and Iranian gas that supplies Europe through Syria or Turkey. And because oil will not continue as the most important commodity in the energy market, and the survival of our dependence on it will put us in the face of a very terrifying idea, namely the bankruptcy of our state and then its collapse, so I find it necessary to repeat the proposals I submitted in the previous article with the status of gas investment as an urgent and urgent priority:-
- Launching the investment of Iraqi gas and active participation in the transport of gas globally through Iraqi territory, starting negotiations with Qatar and Iran and providing facilities and attractive elements to build platforms to receive Qatari gas through ships or studying the passage of a pipeline under the Gulf waters, connecting Qatari and Iranian gas sources to the gas network inside Iraq, developing and expanding this network to be able to meet the needs of Iraq and transporting gas through Iraq. 
To Europe.
- Emphasizing the expansion of the agreement with China to reach an average of (500-300) thousand barrels of oil per day and with it will expand projects and infrastructure producing value added and start concluding similar agreements with other developed countries, such as (United States, France, South Korea, India) and countries in the Middle East such as Egypt.
- Start large negotiations to sell part of Iraq's exports (according to the experience of Mexico) at a fixed price and for a period of at least 20 years to ensure a fixed revenue for Iraq, and leave the remaining part of the factors of supply and demand in the market and this may push Iraq out of OPEC later, and may be the right time after oil prices rise again.
- Amendment of the Oil Investment Act (Investment in Refineries) which was born dead in 2007, and to include petrochemical industries as well as refineries and other oil projects, and as it is known that the price of a barrel of oil will double several times if it turns into oil products or petrochemical commodities.
Finally, as far as it is known, and away from free or associated natural gas, the talk may seem like a kind of science fiction right now, there are great scientific aspirations but they are still not economically feasible as well as their great environmental risks, but it may be normal to talk about it after 20 years, we usually talk about natural gas available in fields that are relatively independent and close to the earth's surface, which is what we talk about the gas reserves installed by BP, which is very exciting that there is another aspect that there is another aspect From the story has carried out science in an area that was far from the idea of its investment which is (water gas) where Japan announced that research and studies have reached the extraction of water gas from the seabed and this type of gas is present in frozen water at depths exceeding 500 meters and is produced from the union of gas and water under high pressure and low temperature and spreads widely in the seabed in a solid layer resembling glass or ice that contains large amounts of methane gas that is released from Water in the form of huge bubbles when pressure or heat changes 
Or both.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]