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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality


Neno

I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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    The Sadrists and possible alliances... Two paths, one of which leads to the formation of the governm

    Rocky
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    The Sadrists and possible alliances... Two paths, one of which leads to the formation of the governm Empty The Sadrists and possible alliances... Two paths, one of which leads to the formation of the governm

    Post by Rocky Thu 21 Oct 2021, 7:48 am

    [size=39]The Sadrists and possible alliances... Two paths, one of which leads to the formation of the government "with ease"

    Hussein Qaid - Dubai
    October 20 2021    [/size]


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    With the announcement of the preliminary results of the Iraqi elections, and the failure of a faction to obtain a majority that could form the government on its own, questions began about possible alliances, and the names of the personalities nominated to head the government, including the current Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi.
    According to the preliminary results of the elections, no party has a clear majority in parliament so far, but the Sadrist movement won the highest number of seats with 73 seats.
    The "Progress" party led by Parliament Speaker, Muhammad al-Halbousi, came in second place after winning 37 seats, excluding the Al-Fateh Alliance of the Popular Mobilization, which was the second force in the outgoing parliament with 48 seats, and its share in this session decreased to about 17 seats. 
    The State of Law bloc, headed by former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, came third with 34 seats, then the Kurdistan Democratic Party with 32 seats.
    The head of the Center for Political Thinking in Iraq, Ihsan Al-Shammari, believes that choosing the next prime minister will depend largely on the pressures on Muqtada al-Sadr to return to the Shiite political house.
    Al-Shammari added, in statements to the "Al-Hurra" website, that it is possible that Al-Sadr will form an alliance in which about 80 percent of the Shiite political forces participate, indicating that he may succeed in reaching an understanding with the "state forces" coalition led by the cleric Ammar Al-Hakim and the former prime minister. Haider al-Abadi, and with the head of the Conquest Alliance, Hadi al-Amiri.
    However, he stressed that it is inevitable that there would be an agreement between Al-Sadr and Asa'ib or Kata'ib Hezbollah, which are loyal to Iran, expecting the possibility of an alliance of these forces with Al-Maliki.

    Two possible scenarios

    For his part, Harith Hassan, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for Research, talks to AFP about two possible scenarios.
    The first scenario is “the revival of the (Shiite alliance), if efforts are made to persuade or force al-Sadr to accept a new power-sharing formula, with a compromise candidate as prime minister, and an agreement on some (reform principles), such as the future and structure of the Popular Mobilization,” he says. 
    A source in the "Al-Fateh" alliance indicated to AFP that "prominent leaders in Al-Fateh proposed to a representative of the Sadrist movement to enter into an alliance with Shiite entities, including Al-Fateh in Parliament, in order to form the next government," but the representative of the movement did not respond to the proposal.
    The second scenario is the coalition of the majority. In this context, Hassan says that "this scenario is possible unless al-Sadr submits to pressure from his Shiite rivals." Consequently, he may "go to an alliance with the leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Massoud Barzani, the leader of the Sunni (Progress) alliance, Muhammad al-Halbousi, and smaller parties." Such a scenario will easily lead to the formation of a government.
    Three officials in the Sadrist movement refused to answer the questions of the "Al-Hurra" website, stressing that they were committed to media silence so that the current course of negotiations with the various political forces would not be affected. Shiite forces, stressing that the movement is not subjected to any pressure to return to the Shiite house, and attributed this to the movement winning the highest number of seats, which puts it in a strong position, he said. 
    The source added, in statements to the "Al-Hurra" website: "It is clear that the current will ally with the Sunni forces, the independents and the Kurdistan Democratic Party." He pointed out that some independents have already joined the Sadrist bloc, which gives the current the majority it needs to form a government.
    But the researcher at the International Crisis Group, Laheeb Hegel, said in statements to AFP, that the Sadrist movement "cannot take support only from the Sunni and Kurdish parties, but the consensus should start from the Shiite house first."
    Hassan believes that these two scenarios do not eliminate the possibility of an "escalation towards armed conflict and chaos" in a country where most parties have military wings.

    Who is the next prime minister?

    As for the next prime minister, Al-Shammari says that Al-Kazemi is the most fortunate so far. He made it clear that he could continue in his position through al-Sadr's alliance with al-Halbousi and Barzani.
    He pointed out that the militias loyal to Iran are trying to remove Al-Kazemi. But he stressed that in light of this polarization, it is difficult to agree on a prime minister.
    Hassan agrees with Al-Shammari, saying, "Mustafa Al-Kazemi still has a strong chance of staying in the position."
    In turn, the source in Al-Sadr's movement confirmed to Al-Hurra that the name of the next prime minister is not yet clear, because the appeals against the elections have not been decided upon, in addition to the fact that the selection process requires the stability of alliances and consensus. 
    Despite that, the source ruled out that Al-Kazemi would be the prime minister for a second term without explaining the reasons, adding: “Yes, Al-Kazemi is a consensual figure, who came after the fall of the previous government, but I rule out that he will be prime minister in a second term.”
    Al-Kazemi does not have a party, and he is not an elected representative. For Hegel, these are "appropriate" qualities, because that does not put parties directly at the fore. She adds, "Perhaps a person who is known in the Iraqi political community may be chosen, but who does not have a clear political affiliation."
    On the other hand, political analyst Ali al-Baydar said in an interview with Al-Hurra that Nuri al-Maliki is the most likely to form the next government, given that his bloc came in second place after the Sadrist movement.
    Al-Baydar considered that al-Maliki is able to forge alliances and consensus with the Sunni and Kurdish blocs in the next parliament to enable him to obtain sufficient votes, while the Sadrist movement will not be able to conclude such alliances without consensus with the other Shiite parties and components in parliament.
    As for the possibility of Al-Kazemi assuming the presidency of the government, he replied: "This is not excluded, but I see to a large extent that Al-Maliki is the most capable of forming it."
    Despite its decline, the forces loyal to Iran are still able to strengthen their position through alliances or independent accession to them, in addition to their influence resulting from Tehran's support and arms, as they can ally themselves with the "State of Law" bloc led by al-Maliki, according to AFP.
    Although Muqtada al-Sadr has repeatedly reiterated his desire to appoint a prime minister from his current, Hegel of the International Crisis Group believes that he will eventually accept otherwise, because the next prime minister "must be a consensus candidate," as she put it
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