The "huge" 2023 budget is non-developmental and will raise inflation and currency printing[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
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Baghdad today - follow-up
Researchers and economists agree that the next budget, 2023, is a "dangerous" budget, especially with the figures circulating about its size and the amount of spending in it, especially the operational part of the spending, which has increased significantly, which will lead to the production of a budget that is the largest in Iraq's history.
The economic researcher, Nabil Jabbar Al-Tamimi, says, "The size of the budget circulated through some leaks confirms the existence of a huge budget that may be the highest in Iraq's history, and may exceed the barrier of 200 trillion dinars."
Al-Tamimi added, in press statements followed by “Baghdad Today,” that “the operational side of the budget will exceed 80 trillion dinars, reaching more than 100 trillion dinars, which is a very large amount. Oil at $57 per barrel as a minimum to enable the government to provide these budgets.
The economic researcher explained that "the decision-maker in Iraq does not realize the size of the occasional economic effects of huge budgets that may contribute to an increase in price inflation in one way or another."
Al-Tamimi expected that the implementation of the budget would be disrupted during the coming period if the crisis continued for several months to come, and that the treatments would require additional time, which would prompt the central bank to print more local currency during the coming period. period, to strengthen the government's accounts, which is a risky measure.
He pointed out that the government will rely in the budget on a fixed exchange rate of 1,460 dinars per dollar, and the government may assume an oil price between 60-70 dollars per barrel, which is a speculative price based on the lower limits of oil. price expectations.
For her part, the Iraqi economist, Salam Sumaisem, confirmed that the upcoming federal budget faces many challenges, the most important of which is the stability of the dollar exchange rate, which affects the nature of the budget evaluation.
Sumaisem added that among the challenges is the problem of the Iraqi Kurdistan region's share of the budget, and that this challenge is subject to political factors, in addition to the fact that the World Bank obligated Iraq to calculate the price of a barrel of oil at $64.
Sumaisem stressed that all these challenges are being resolved through a political agreement, not an economic one, but the expected jump in spending on salaries increases the burden on the budget and increases the size of job slack.
And she stressed that the budget did not differ in terms of its formulation from previous years, because it proceeds with the same problems and imbalances, through spending on security and defense, in addition to most salaries and side incidents.
Sumaisem pointed out that the state's general budget for the year 2023 does not contain any aspect that leads to development and investment development, with the lack of proper planning and the spread of corruption on a wide horizon.
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