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Speculation disturbs the stability of the exchange rate
Economical 2023/05/20
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Haider Fleeh Al-Rubaie
Financial speculation in the dollar exchange markets disturbed the price stability that the country witnessed during the recent period, resulting from the packages of measures launched by the Central Bank in cooperation with various government agencies to control the dollar, while the "green currency" witnessed a rise that touched the limits of 147 thousand dinars per dollar. 100 dollars, specialists in economic affairs confirmed that there was a discrepancy between supply and demand that led to a rise in the exchange rate of the dollar in the parallel markets, accompanied by an increase in speculation and the difficulty and delay of audit procedures to purchase foreign currency.
Despite the "fluctuation" taking place in the parallel exchange markets, however, specialists believe that this matter will be temporary, suggesting that the dollar exchange rate will return very soon, and its stability at the 1340-1360 range.
Amidst this, the central bank doubled its measures aimed at tightening control over the exchange rate, while its recent sales amounted to more than $200 million in the currency sale window, the governor of the central bank, Ali Al-Alaq, confirmed following up on the exchange rate situation, developing appropriate solutions for any problems, and implementing purchase requests. From merchants and citizens as a whole, pointing out that those who refrain from buying from the official platforms may have problems and illegal dealings.
Al-Alaq said, "The central has a daily follow-up of the dollar exchange rate to find out all the factors and influences related to the exchange rate."
Al-Alaq added, "The Central Bank is trying to find solutions to it and the appropriate channels, and we are walking near the market to identify the problems that occur in order to put the price in its official direction."
The governor explained, “The Central Bank implements the purchase requirements and the needs of all citizens in terms of dollars, and each price remains outside the official price, either for speculation or for illegal actions,” considering that “goes to buy dollars from the black market at a price higher than the official, despite the availability of the official through approved platforms, perhaps.” There will be problems in the transactions that he performs.”
In turn, the economic and financial expert, Dr. Mahmoud Dagher, believes during his interview with “Al-Sabah” that the rise in the exchange rate represents a “natural matter” in light of the failure to solve the problem of the dollar supply for import purposes and the rest of the commercial activities, stressing that the failure to provide the dollar in a way that suits the high demand in recent times Finally, it can lead to a lack of control over it.
The expert Dagher also attributed the reasons for the rise in the exchange rate, after it witnessed stability in previous times, to a number of factors, including “problems related to the transfer process, return and audit by the US Federal Reserve, which takes a long time for remittances,” noting that these matters “led to Supply does not cover the level of demand, which is now not only for trading purposes, but rather for speculative and precautionary purposes.
Dagher stressed, "The restrictions that stand in front of the expansion of the dollar supply are still very present, indicating the possibility of reaching the goal when the supply restriction is completely lifted."
The economist, Nabil Jabbar Al-Tamimi, did not stray far from the previous opinion, when he indicated to "Al-Sabah" that "speculation represents the most prominent reason behind the rise in the dollar exchange rate," stressing the possibility of restoring the stability of the foreign exchange between 1340-1360 dinars within a week or so. A little more, in the event that the Central Bank takes measures related to providing greater facilities to companies and small traders and requests for financial transfers, to conduct transfers on (less severe) terms.
Despite Al-Tamimi's call for "less drastic measures," he "praised the Central Bank's policies during the recent period," stressing that those policies "did not lead to restrictions on access to the dollar, and that the rise resulted from the speculations conducted by some currency traders taking advantage of the high price of the dollar." Exchange," indicating at the same time, that "the currency selling window has maintained a moderate daily sales rate over the past two weeks between 180-200 million dollars per session, and it may approach a little bit from the actual need of the Iraqi market for dollars."
The expert, Al-Tamimi, called for the need to stop the “imaginary effect on exchange rates” represented by (mobile applications) that promote local exchange rates (black market exchange rates) because they are applications whose displayed data do not include their dependence on real demand in the market (such as a real electronic auction and stock exchange, but rather It is just a media display.
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