“Oil, Water and the PKK” .. American proposals to strengthen the negotiating position of Baghdad and

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[size=52]“Oil, Water and the PKK” .. American proposals to strengthen the negotiating position of Baghdad and Erbil with Ankara[/size]

[size=45]An American institute called on the governments of Baghdad and Erbil to strengthen their negotiating position on “rigid” files with Ankara, with regard to oil exports, water flows and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), while urging Iraq and Turkey to turn these differences into an opportunity for integration and mutual dependence instead of conflict and exploitation.[/size]
[size=45]Erdogan's visit and oil[/size]
[size=45]In a report titled “Can Oil and Water Mix,” the American “Middle East Institute” mentioned, “the recent wave of diplomatic activity between Baghdad, Ankara, and Erbil, which took place almost simultaneously, through the visits of the Turkish foreign and energy ministers to Iraq, and the Iraqi oil minister to Turkey, apparently in preparation for the expected visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Iraq, which Iraqi sources believe may take place this September.[/size]
[size=45]After referring to the files of water, the Kurdistan Workers Party, and oil exports, the American report said, "The results of these visits were modest regarding these files, as no new ideas were put forward, and old positions, demands, and expressions of hope were repeated."[/size]
[size=45]However, the report considered that "there is an opportunity for Iraq to change things and strengthen its negotiating position, at least with regard to the issue of oil exports, or more than that."[/size]
[size=45]After the report initially mentioned the file of pending oil exports to Turkey, it indicated that “the liquefaction of this oil is necessary in order to implement the Iraq budget for the year 2023 amounting to 150 billion dollars and to be able to control the huge deficit of 48 billion dollars, while Turkey’s direct losses are considered less.” , as its value ranges between 2 million to 3 million dollars per day in fees for oil transit,” adding that “this excludes the possibility of Baghdad’s ability to benefit from this file by stimulating oil and gas trade.”[/size]
[size=45]Water and Security File[/size]
[size=45]As for the second important file for Iraq, it is water, as the report reviewed “the climatic and water challenges facing the country, which is witnessing another dry year and the disappearance of lakes and marshes with the diminishing amount of water flowing into the Tigris and Euphrates rivers from the upstream neighbors Turkey and Iran.”[/size]
[size=45]As for the third issue, it is “related to security, especially with regard to the presence of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) on Iraqi lands extending from Sulaymaniyah and Makhmur in the east, to the rugged Qandil Mountains in the north, all the way to Sinjar near the Syrian border in the west, where Turkey launches many air strikes to weaken the party inside Iraq stresses that it is imperative for Baghdad or Erbil to take measures to end the party (virus).[/size]
[size=45]But the report indicated that "Iraq has its own problems with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), whose presence and that of its affiliated groups is attracting military actions by Turkey, destabilizing the war-torn Sinjar region in Nineveh Governorate."[/size]
[size=45]The report mentioned the position of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, where he repeated the argument that “the party’s existence must end, whether with the cooperation of Baghdad or Erbil.” However, the report considered that “the problem is that there is no strength or political will for either Baghdad or Erbil, to act decisively.” As their ability to move is complicated by the material and political costs and the difficulty of fighting entrenched fighters in a guerrilla war, in addition to the militants of the Sinjar Resistance Units enjoying strong local support in Sinjar, as they are seen as legitimately defending the Yazidi minority community.[/size]
[size=45]The report continued, "The ruling parties in Erbil do not look at the PKK with one eye, as while the Kurdistan Democratic Party in Erbil considers the PKK an enemy, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan in Sulaymaniyah appears sympathetic, if not supportive, in addition to that there is increasing evidence." On the cooperation between the Sinjar Resistance Units and the Iran-backed factions of the Popular Mobilization Forces, which supported the attacks against the Turkish forces stationed in Iraq.[/size]
[size=45]The report considered that "progress with regard to water was also disappointing, as Prime Minister Muhammad Shia' al-Sudani celebrated the new agreement to form a joint water committee, an understanding that is much less commensurate with the scale of the environmental, economic and social crisis that is now unfolding."[/size]
[size=45]The report added, "The matter was not limited to that Ankara did not make any commitments to release more water in order to save the communities that depend on the Euphrates River, but rather that the formation of this committee is merely a reformulation of an agreement reached in the year 2021 during the reign of Mustafa Al-Kadhimi's government."[/size]
[size=45]On the oil file, the report said that "the recent talks did not result in an agreement, and that the Turkish procrastination was very clear," recalling that Turkish officials said "they need more time in order to examine the pipeline and storage tanks in the port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean to make sure The absence of damage caused by the earthquake of last February 6, noting that it is difficult to believe this situation because oil continued to flow for 46 days after the earthquake, and the flow did not stop until March 25, hours after the International Criminal Court issued its ruling in favor of Iraq. ".[/size]
[size=45]The report considered that “Turkey is using the pipeline as a bargaining chip to extract concessions on oil and security cooperation from Erbil and Baghdad, in light of reports talking about the existence of Turkish conditions, including a reduction in the amount of compensation that it must pay (set by the International Criminal Court at $ 1.5 billion), and reductions Significant oil prices, dropping all claims against it, increasing oil transportation fees to $7 per barrel (compared to a maximum of $1.18 according to the current pipeline treaty that was renewed in 2010), along with compensation for pipeline maintenance costs.[/size]
[size=45]Iraq's unused influence[/size]
[size=45]Despite all this, the report stressed that it is “ironically, Turkey’s decision to prolong the suspension of Iraqi oil exports has led to a rearrangement of the interests of Baghdad and Erbil so that Baghdad wants, for the first time in a long time, that Erbil’s oil reaches international markets with the same desire that Erbil has.” itself".[/size]
[size=45]The American report stated that “in light of the mutual interests of Baghdad and Erbil being at risk, and in light of the recent convergence in their positions regarding the management of oil resources, which was reflected in Erbil’s approval in April to allow the State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO) to deal with its oil exports, it is possible The federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government to turn the tables in their interest.[/size]
[size=45]He continued, saying, "Baghdad and Erbil can become in a much stronger position with regard to oil than you currently imagine, especially in light of taking additional technical steps in accordance with the political agreement reached in April," adding that "the key may be through strengthening Benefiting from the oil produced in Kirkuk and the Kurdistan Region inside Iraq itself, through the available refineries, and through power stations, although to a lesser extent.[/size]
[size=45]The report believed that “any comprehensive strategy must view crude oil as a fungible commodity, as barrels flow to any place that generates the greatest economic return, a strategy that may include several tactics, including ensuring the maximum capacity of oil refineries, including Bazian, Nineveh and Dokan.” In the Kurdistan Region, which is capable of processing about 230 thousand barrels per day of oil, with the aim of absorbing the largest possible amount of production to meet the needs of the local market, and perhaps also exporting surplus refined products.[/size]
[size=45]As for the second tactic, it is represented by “using trucks to transport the oil produced from the Kurdistan Region to refineries and/or power stations in central and southern Iraq, which can replace the raw materials coming from the southern fields, and provide more of this oil for export.”[/size]
[size=45]According to the report, "the cost of transportation, for example through 240-mile truck trips from Kirkuk to the newly built 140,000-barrel-per-day Karbala refinery, will be less than the $7 per barrel Turkey demands."[/size]
[size=45]For comparison, the report said, "The cost of transporting Iraqi crude oil via tanker trucks for a distance of 600 miles from Kirkuk to its refineries in Zarqa is $6.80 per barrel."[/size]
[size=45]As for the third tactic, the report stated that “officials in Baghdad and Erbil must consider planning for the future in order to ensure the availability of adequate infrastructure to allow the flow of an additional 150,000 barrels of oil produced in Kurdistan towards the Baiji refinery complex, which may be restarted before the end of the year 2024.” .[/size]
[size=45]The report concluded by saying that "the governments of Baghdad and Erbil have the ability to adapt that will appear with this transformation process, in light of Ankara's continued ban on exports, adding that Baghdad and Erbil can transform oil from an issue that requires Ankara's cooperation, to a bargaining chip of their own."[/size]
[size=45]Also, the report considered that "Baghdad and Erbil can provide oil at a discount to Turkey if Turkey reciprocates on reasonable terms for the use of the pipeline in the long term, and shows more cooperation in addressing the water crisis in Iraq."[/size]
[size=45]On the other hand, the report said that "there are gains that Turkey can reap," adding that "in light of Erbil and Baghdad shifting more towards being on the same page with regard to managing energy exports, the decline in uncertainty could help Iraq to invest in Increase production from Kirkuk to get more oil flowing through Turkey to make the Iraq pipeline project more profitable.”[/size]
[size=45]In addition, the report said that "meeting Iraq's water needs would create more favorable conditions for the involvement of Turkish companies in developing irrigation systems in Iraq, in the interest of the two riparian countries," adding that "Baghdad may also study the possibility of giving the green light." To revive previous plans related to selling Kurdistan gas to Turkey.[/size]
[size=45]The report concluded by saying that “the issue of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) may, in the foreseeable future, be difficult to resolve, but this should not prevent the two neighbors from achieving progress on other issues, and Iraq and Turkey must look forward to the abundance of oil and water as an opportunity for integration.” and interdependence rather than conflict and exploitation.”[/size]
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