[size=38]Iraq and deceptive growth: Is it dancing to the tunes of oil or singing the tune of development?[/size]
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June 26, 2024[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Baghdad/Al-Masala Al-Hadath: The Iraqi economy has been witnessing remarkable growth for some time, mainly due to the high global demand for oil and its high prices.
This growth raises questions about whether it is self-sustaining growth, or whether it is transitory growth linked to external variables that cannot be relied upon in the long term.
Some experts warn that the current growth of the Iraqi economy is not considered self-growth or planned, for several reasons, as this growth depends heavily on the oil sector, as the oil sector constitutes more than 60% of Iraq’s gross domestic product. This growth does not contribute to creating sufficient job opportunities or improving the standard of living of citizens in general.
It also does not lead to diversifying the Iraqi economy or reducing its dependence on oil.
Economist Ali Al-Waeli says that serious steps must be taken to diversify the Iraqi economy and create real and sustainable growth that contributes to improving the standard of living of citizens.
Experts point out that the World Bank should have focused on the growth rate of non-oil GDP instead of focusing on general economic growth, which is greatly affected by oil prices, because growth in non-oil sectors is what contributes to creating real job opportunities and improving the standard of living of citizens. .
Experts call on the Iraqi government to develop plans and strategies to diversify the Iraqi economy and reduce its dependence on oil.
They also call on it to take concrete steps to address the problems of unemployment, poverty and inequality.
Therefore, the current economic growth in Iraq cannot be considered self-sufficient or sustainable.
Rather, it is a transient growth linked to external variables that cannot be relied upon in the long term.
On Tuesday, the economic expert, Nabil Al-Marsoumi, revealed the rate of economic growth in Iraq during 2024.
Al-Marsoumi said in a post on the Facebook platform, “The World Bank confirmed in its report that Iraq’s economic growth reached 7.6% in 2022 and 7.6% in 2022, while it reached 2.9% in 2023,” expecting that “Iraq’s economic growth will decline.” In the year 2024, it will reach - 0.3%, and will achieve growth in the year 2025, reaching 3.8% and 5.3% in the year 2026.”
He added, “Economic growth in Iraq is not self-growth or planned, but rather transitory growth linked to external variables, the most important of which is the rise in global demand for oil and the rise in its prices, and therefore it cannot be relied upon to create positive effects among the various economic sectors,” pointing out that “it should have The World Bank should pay attention to the growth rate of non-oil gross product and not to general economic growth, which is greatly affected by oil.”
Al-Marsoumi continued, “The significant economic growth achieved in Iraq in 2022 resulted from the increase in oil production quantities and the rise in oil prices, while the negative economic growth in 2023 and 2024 is linked to the decline in oil production quantities due to OPEC Plus restrictions and the decline in oil prices, as well as the expected positive economic growth.” “The years 2025 and 2026 are linked to reducing OPEC restrictions and the possibility of a rise in global oil prices.”
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