Carolina Hurricanes

Performance Against Bottom Six in NHL Ruined Canes Playoff Hopes
March 22, 2017, 5:41 PM ET [1 Comments]
Ben Case
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The Canes are sitting six points out of the playoffs and are 6-1-3 in their last ten games. It has been an exciting resurgence for a team that ten games ago was in contention for a top-five pick. The storyline for this team is that inconsistent play has stymied what could have been a playoff season.

There are two major factors for why the Canes aren’t wrapping up a playoff spot over the next week and are on the outside looking in. Why do I say the Canes should be wrapping up a playoff spot over the next week? Well, within the next week the Canes play three games against the two worst Eastern Conference opponents and should secure six points.

Many who evaluate the Canes season failures point to the goalie woes as the primary reason this team won’t make the playoffs. While I do think that goaltending has been an issue at times and is a concern in the future, this season wasn’t lost solely because of Ward/Lack.

This season was lost because the Canes couldn’t compete against the Metro division and their inability to win games against the worst NHL teams. I’ll even throw in a third reason that goes above the goaltending dilemma—the Canes atrocious road record of 10-17-9. They are tied with Dallas for second least in road wins and are only one ahead of the Avalanche.

We will start with the Metro performance—the Canes are 8-13-4 and hold the least wins of any Metro team against divisional opponents. This stat gets even more lopsided when you take away the Canes 3-0-1 record against the Islanders too. Playoff teams can’t hold the worst divisional record and realistically have a shot.

Granted, the Canes can’t control that this division was the strongest in the NHL. Many of their losses were to top teams (Penguins, Capitals, Rangers, and the Blue Jackets), so I understand the performance struggles there. Unfortunately, the Metro was stacked this year and that’s just how the cookie crumbled. Despite the divisional struggles, the Canes still could have survived with better play against the bottom six NHL teams.

Many can look at the five-game losing streak in January and then the five-game losing streak in February as why the Canes aren’t in the playoffs. However, the Canes could have overcome those challenges too if they had of performed better against the bottom six NHL teams—New Jersey, Dallas, Detroit, Vancouver, Phoenix and Colorado.

Looking at the Canes record against those six teams, they are 2-6-3. Two of those losses came during one of the five-game losing streaks, thus eight were against top teams or playoff contenders.

Ultimately, the Canes only picked up seven of 22 possible points to the bottom 20% of the NHL.
Even if they won the final two against Detroit, one against New Jersey, and one against Dallas, then the Canes still will only pick up 50% of the points with 15 points of a possible 30. Simply put—not good enough.

When people want to point to why Carolina is six points out, look directly at the 2-6-3 record against the NHL’s worst teams. If you take the 1-0-1 record on Vancouver out, the Canes were 1-6-2 against five of the six worst teams.

If the Canes found a way to win three more of those eleven games, they could be potentially holding a six to ten point lead on the final wildcard spot a week from now. Instead, this will go down as another season of “if’s” as the Canes remain on the outside looking in.