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Increase oil production do not achieve financial abundance
4/17/2016 0:00
[rtl] Due to the decline in global economic growth rates of
Baghdad Imad Emirate
Chief Economist d. Qusay al-Jabri said Iraq's economy Rei, where the oil sector contributes about two-thirds of GDP, adding that any increase realized in GDP due to either increase oil exports or rising oil prices, without be caused by an increase in production Alhakiqi.oadav Jabri's « Sabah »: the general budget depends on funding basic heavily on oil revenues, which in turn influenced by oil prices globally, as well as a low rate of evolution of GDP from 33 percent in 1992 to reach 6 percent in 2010, lower multiplier effect due to the increased proportion of the contribution of current expenditure in total spending compared to spending investment.
Export capabilities and what the necessary policy to stimulate and support this sector said Jabri , that this question puts us in front of two options, the first continuing adoption of gross domestic product on oil exports because of its impact on the financing of thegovernment budget, in terms of economic studies have shown that the weakness of oil exports will lead to a budget deficit. He noted that this conclusion, in light of theweakness of the productive and export capacity of the sector , extractive, requires us to open the way for foreign investment in the oil fields and rehabilitated, and this will bereflected in the increase in the sector 's oil production and will undoubtedly lead to increased financial capacity of the government gives them the opportunity to increase therate of investment in various economic sectors (infrastructure, agriculture and industry) as well as the government sector. inflationary waves and continued Jabri: this in turn leads to increased demand for goods and services and with the lack of flexibility of theproduction machinery leads to rising prices and the widening inflationary waves circle, and this phenomenon is acceptable when the Keynesians in the short term and long, but it is inevitable in the long term when Alncodean who see that inflation is a monetary phenomenon caused by an increase in money supply, on the one side and the other side, the increase in demand for goods and services lead to increased imports and hence the current account deficit. He d. Jabri said the price increase reflected in generating cost structure rise in the prices of domestic goods, thus weakening their competitiveness in the international market, exerting downward pressure on exports ,which increases the current account deficit. Positive effects and pointed out that there are industries will come into force after being rehabilitated , such as petrochemical industries, iron and steel the cement and construction materials, all of these industries depend in some input on raw materials, goods and intermediates imported, as well as inflation will lead to higher wages for workers so Increased oil production in light of thestability of prices does not achieve a positive impact on the trade balance, as well as thenegative impact resulting from the shortage in national non - oil exports because ofinflation, there is another factor affecting the increase in the current account , but a shortage of paragraph transfers from one side in debt with no benefits or aid in cash or in kind, and this will stop after a rise in the export of Iraqi oil rates. competing nationsJabri went on saying , : on the other hand, the increase in oil prices may not lead to increased fiscal revenue to the cause of the falling demand for oil due to declining growth rates for the global economy as a result of emergency conditions or business cycles that are appropriate to the nature of the capitalist economy, competition between oil - producing countries that appeared in the pursuit of oil -producing countries to exploit oil and gas reserves underlying, leading to outweigh the total supply on aggregate demand, and thus lower prices to low levels , the problem of a shock to the balance oftrade and current accounts of the oil states corresponding to the crisis eighties that had a lot of these countries to borrow to overcome the harmful effects. Reload industries and stressed Jabri the need setting a target rate of GDP under the stability of oil revenues and not to increase production in the oil sector , and it remains the same, and this will be through the modernization of both governmental existing industries or owned by theprivate sector by providing technology and working methods developed and set up industrial parks based on linkages between them and existing projects, so there will be acontinuing demand for domestic production , whether for the purposes of the case ofimports or export purposes, having available the necessary infrastructure for its establishment and to provide the necessary support to give them a competitive advantage in the international market, and this in turn leads to a reduction of the degree of concentration of the commodity and the provision of financial returns sufficient to finance government spending.[/rtl]
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