Expectations of a rise in oil prices from 90-100 dollars a barrel
- Time: 09/27/2021 15:03:46
- Reading: 1,300 times
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{Economic: Al Furat News} Expectations indicate that global demand for oil will return in early 2022 to levels before the outbreak of the new Corona virus, while Goldman Sachs estimated that its price will rise to between 90 and 100 dollars per barrel.
Today, Monday, oil producers and traders expected that global demand for fuel would return to pre-Covid-19 levels by early next year, with the economy ridding itself of the consequences of the pandemic, but the excess refining capacity will likely pressure those expectations.
Sector leaders said that despite the continued increase in cases of the disease in many markets, which affected the recovery of demand for some refining products, such as jet fuel, consumption trends for gasoline and diesel indicated higher growth, according to Reuters.
These statements were made at the 2021 Platts Petroleum Asia-Pacific Conference, which is being held in a hybrid form this year, as it includes both real and virtual participants.
"We've seen refining margins recover as demand recovers," said Eugene Leung, president of BP Singapore and CEO of BP's trading and shipping arm in Asia, the Pacific and the Middle East. of production lines," according to Reuters.
"Most likely, the excess refining capacity will reduce to some degree those margins," he said in a pre-recorded speech to the conference.
The head of Hess Corp., an American oil and gas producer, said that the company expects global demand to return to pre-pandemic levels, which were 100 million barrels per day, by the end of this year or early 2022.
The IEA also forecast a strong recovery from the fourth quarter, citing "strong pent-up demand and continued progress in vaccination campaigns" to prevent COVID-19.
And it expected that the average global demand for oil in 2021 will reach 96.1 million barrels per day and 99.4 million barrels per day in 2022, compared to recording 90.0 million barrels per day in 2020.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expected average demand in the fourth quarter of this year to reach 99.70 million barrels per day.
For its part, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the price of Brent crude by the end of the year to $90 a barrel, from $80 currently, due to the recovery in fuel demand at a faster rate than expected from the repercussions of the spread of the mutated delta from the Corona virus and the impact of Hurricane Ida on global supplies.
Brent crude futures approached three-year highs last week as global production disruptions prompted companies to withdraw large amounts of their crude stocks.
Crude was traded at $79.19 a barrel at 0619 GMT, while the price of US West Texas Intermediate crude was $75.08 a barrel.
“We have long had a positive outlook for oil prices, but the supply-demand deficit is currently larger than our expectations with global demand recovering from the effect of a delta shift faster than our previous forecast and with global supply remaining at levels lower than our previous forecast,” Goldman Sachs said in a note dated September 26. ".
Earlier this month, "OPEC" and its allies, "OPEC +", agreed to stick to a decision taken in July to gradually undo production cuts.
Goldman Sachs said that the damage caused by Hurricane Ida to supplies erased the impact of the increase in "OPEC +" production, and that non-shale oil production was still disappointing.
Regarding its expectations for 2022, the bank reduced its average forecast for the second and fourth quarters to $80 from $85 a barrel, taking into account the possibility of a US-Iran nuclear agreement by April.
remission
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{Economic: Al Furat News} Expectations indicate that global demand for oil will return in early 2022 to levels before the outbreak of the new Corona virus, while Goldman Sachs estimated that its price will rise to between 90 and 100 dollars per barrel.
Today, Monday, oil producers and traders expected that global demand for fuel would return to pre-Covid-19 levels by early next year, with the economy ridding itself of the consequences of the pandemic, but the excess refining capacity will likely pressure those expectations.
Sector leaders said that despite the continued increase in cases of the disease in many markets, which affected the recovery of demand for some refining products, such as jet fuel, consumption trends for gasoline and diesel indicated higher growth, according to Reuters.
These statements were made at the 2021 Platts Petroleum Asia-Pacific Conference, which is being held in a hybrid form this year, as it includes both real and virtual participants.
"We've seen refining margins recover as demand recovers," said Eugene Leung, president of BP Singapore and CEO of BP's trading and shipping arm in Asia, the Pacific and the Middle East. of production lines," according to Reuters.
"Most likely, the excess refining capacity will reduce to some degree those margins," he said in a pre-recorded speech to the conference.
The head of Hess Corp., an American oil and gas producer, said that the company expects global demand to return to pre-pandemic levels, which were 100 million barrels per day, by the end of this year or early 2022.
The IEA also forecast a strong recovery from the fourth quarter, citing "strong pent-up demand and continued progress in vaccination campaigns" to prevent COVID-19.
And it expected that the average global demand for oil in 2021 will reach 96.1 million barrels per day and 99.4 million barrels per day in 2022, compared to recording 90.0 million barrels per day in 2020.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expected average demand in the fourth quarter of this year to reach 99.70 million barrels per day.
For its part, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the price of Brent crude by the end of the year to $90 a barrel, from $80 currently, due to the recovery in fuel demand at a faster rate than expected from the repercussions of the spread of the mutated delta from the Corona virus and the impact of Hurricane Ida on global supplies.
Brent crude futures approached three-year highs last week as global production disruptions prompted companies to withdraw large amounts of their crude stocks.
Crude was traded at $79.19 a barrel at 0619 GMT, while the price of US West Texas Intermediate crude was $75.08 a barrel.
“We have long had a positive outlook for oil prices, but the supply-demand deficit is currently larger than our expectations with global demand recovering from the effect of a delta shift faster than our previous forecast and with global supply remaining at levels lower than our previous forecast,” Goldman Sachs said in a note dated September 26. ".
Earlier this month, "OPEC" and its allies, "OPEC +", agreed to stick to a decision taken in July to gradually undo production cuts.
Goldman Sachs said that the damage caused by Hurricane Ida to supplies erased the impact of the increase in "OPEC +" production, and that non-shale oil production was still disappointing.
Regarding its expectations for 2022, the bank reduced its average forecast for the second and fourth quarters to $80 from $85 a barrel, taking into account the possibility of a US-Iran nuclear agreement by April.
remission
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