Iran faces major challenges in Iraqi elections

[size=52]Iran faces major challenges in Iraqi elections[/size]

[size=45]Experts believe that Iran is facing a major challenge in the Iraqi parliamentary elections, after it was directly accused of being responsible for the mistakes and problems of the political system during the October 2019 protests that caused the organization of early elections, but experts confirm that Tehran relies on its role in reorganizing alliances after Elections and negotiations to form a government to establish its interests.[/size]
[size=45]Researcher Marcin Al-Shammari says that “one of the things that worries Iran in Iraq is the general feeling of resentment” of Iranian influence, adding, “Iran did not expect this, and this is a new matter for it to deal with.” Resentment against Iranian influence was evident during the popular protests in October 2019, calling for political reforms, fighting corruption and improving services, during which the demonstrators expressed their anger towards Tehran, accusing it of being the architect of the political system in Iraq.[/size]
[size=45]Anger escalated toward Iran, especially after the bloody suppression of the "October" protests, which left about 600 dead and about 30,000 wounded, and activists accused "armed groups", in reference to Iranian-backed factions, of being behind that campaign, which the factions deny, according to Agence France-Presse. .[/size]
[size=45]"Iran has lost a large part of its Shiite base in central and southern Iraq, after it believed for a long time that it would maintain a loyal base there," Renad Mansour, from the Chatham House think-tank, told AFP.[/size]
[size=45]The researcher adds that "many parties allied with Iran are facing more difficulty in maintaining their popularity." Many of the PMF candidates succeeded in entering parliament in the 2018 elections, which witnessed an unprecedented boycott rate. Today, they are seeking to win more seats in the House of Representatives, but experts doubt their ability to achieve this. In a television interview, Ahmed Al-Asadi, one of the leaders of the Al-Fateh bloc representing the PMF factions and the candidate in the elections, expressed the importance of the relationship with Tehran from the point of view of the factions loyal to it, saying that “our relations with the Islamic Republic are not an emerging relationship, they are a strategic relationship.” He added, "It is not a relationship of dependency, nor a relationship of bias, it is a strategic relationship based on a balance between the interest of Iraq and the interest of the Islamic Republic."[/size]
[size=45]This was supported by Muhammad Mohi, a spokesman for the Hezbollah Brigades, the most prominent faction of the crowd, telling AFP in this regard, that "the relationship is positive for the benefit of the Iraqi people and should be strengthened." He added: "We have not seen any negative interference from Iran in Iraqi affairs, and it is usually on the side of the Iraqi people's options and does not object to any positive options for the Iraqi people."[/size]
[size=45]On the other hand, he pointed out that the "priority" of the crowd's candidates in their efforts in Parliament is "providing public services, restoring infrastructure completely, and building the educational and health system as well as the security infrastructure."[/size]
[size=45]In addition, "the biggest goal at the security and strategic level is to remove the American forces from Iraq, complete sovereignty and strengthen the security forces."[/size]
[size=45]In a country where alliances shift after the elections, negotiations aimed at forming a government are more important than elections, says Agence France-Presse. Therefore, observers and diplomats fear that violence will occur if the pro-Iranian factions, for example, want to pressure to ensure the representation they aspire to in the government.[/size]
[size=45]According to political analyst Ali Al-Baydar, the pro-Iranian factions are "trying in a serious and real way to establish themselves and dig their roots deep in the womb of the political process and in successive governments."[/size]
[size=45]He explained that the factions are "working intensively to be present in various sectors, such as diplomatic, cultural and sports aspects," to change the Iraqi street's view of them as "they cannot exist outside the framework of the security and military system." And the researcher on Iraq affairs at the International Crisis Group, Heib Hegel, considers that Tehran will search for "a prime minister that it can work with and who is acceptable to its program." "Usually, a compromise candidate is not a bad option" because it is the equivalent of a "weak prime minister," she added. Hegel believes that Tehran can "work either directly with his office, or at least with other actors around him."[/size]
[size=45]In this regard, Renad Mansour asserts that “the focal point will be the deals that take place behind the scenes to form the government,” adding that “in this process, Tehran has historically played a major role, and Iran has proven to be the most influential external player when it comes to forming a government in Iraq.” “.[/size]
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