Iraq “not ready for war” with Israel, international coalition will remain a spectator

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[size=52]Iraq “not ready for war” with Israel, international coalition will remain a spectator[/size]

[size=45]Baghdad/ Tamim Al-Hassan
The “factions” are embarrassing the Iraqi government due to the continued attacks on Israel, while the country is likely to be subjected to strikes coinciding with the first anniversary of the “Gaza War.”
Meanwhile, the “factions” have begun to deny the recent “Golan bombing,” in what appeared to be a “tactical retreat” to avoid the expected strikes on the leaders and sites of those groups.
A former diplomat says that US forces in Iraq “will not intervene” if Israel launches strikes on Iraq.
Analysts believe that it is too late for the country to avoid war, while Iraq’s skies appear exposed to any enemy.
On Friday, the Israeli army said that a drone from Iraq killed two of its soldiers north of the Golan.
The army spokesman confirmed that “the Iraqi drone over the Golan resulted in the injury of 24 soldiers and the death of two.”
A political source says that “the government is embarrassed now because it does not want Iraq to be directly involved in the war.”
Al-Sudani’s government had implemented strict measures against the backdrop of the bombing of Baghdad airport, which includes US advisers, last week.
Yesterday, Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani called again on “the international community and the UN Security Council for their essential role in preserving security and stability,” while receiving the British Ambassador to Iraq, Stephen Hickey.
Since the outbreak of the crisis in Gaza, the government has been committed to the diplomatic track and providing relief aid to those fleeing wars.
While in New York last month, al-Sudani tried to “pressure countries” to stop the war, according to government spokesman Bassem al-Awadi. The
Prime Minister held 30 meetings at the recent UN meetings in New York over a period of 6 days, during which “Lebanon and Gaza” were among the topics, according to al-Awadi.
However, observers had criticized what they described as “Iraq missing opportunities to avoid war,” by not maturing a special Iraqi initiative or engaging in Arab initiatives, according to Ihsan al-Shammari, a professor of public policy at the University of Baghdad.
On this basis, the probability of Iraq being exposed to Israeli strikes, as is happening in Lebanon, is very high, due to the strikes of the group calling itself the “Iraqi resistance.”
Expectations are increasing that the strikes, which may target between 30 and 35 targets, may take place during these days, coinciding with the first anniversary of the “October” events, the Gaza war.
Ibrahim al-Sumaidaie, a government advisor, says that “Iraq is not ready for war.”
He confirms in statements to local media that Iraq, the official position and political community; “does not want to engage in a direct war with Israel.”
He explains that “Iraq is not ready to enter into a war due to the weakness of military and economic capabilities, and its need for Western support.”
What about the factions?
Political circles in the media talk about the existence of two types of factions in Iraq; local and Iranian, according to their political and military reference.
The second type, which calls itself the “Iraqi resistance,” does not abide by government decisions, so it is planning for “surprises that may turn the situation upside down,” according to Abbas al-Zaidi, a leader in the Popular Mobilization Forces.
Al-Zaidi said in a television interview that “the Iraqi resistance has not yet used 5% of the military capabilities it has.”
Based on these allegations, Israel appears to be planning to respond, especially after announcing the killing of Israelis in the recent “Golan shelling.”
However, Western reports quoted these factions, without specifying the party concerned, as saying that they “deny striking the Golan,” in what appears to be a retreat for fear of being targeted.
The so-called “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” announced on “Telegram” on Friday morning that it had struck three targets in separate operations inside “Israel” using drones.
These groups have participated, according to successive statements, in striking Israel since the war expanded to Lebanon in late September.
The factions have announced several times that they had launched “Arqab” missiles at Israel, which are advanced cruise missiles.
They also stated that they had launched “Arfad” drones from Iraq towards Israel.
These drones are mostly used in Yemen under the name (Samad-2), and in Lebanon (Nours), and their range is between 500 and 1000 km. The range of the Iraqi version was “500 km,” according to platforms affiliated with the factions.
The so-called “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” includes factions, most notably the Hezbollah Brigades, the Al-Nujaba Brigades, and the Sayyid al-Shuhada Brigades, three factions targeted by US sanctions.
In recent months, this formation has announced the launch of drone attacks on targets in Israel.
Fuad Hussein, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, had previously questioned the statements issued by the so-called “Resistance in Iraq,” in which it announces from time to time the launch of attacks targeting areas inside Israel.
Since last April, Israel has confirmed the occurrence of a number of air strikes from the east without pointing the finger at a specific party.
The capabilities of Iraq and Israel
Military researchers talk about an “Iraqi inability” in the air defense system.
Sarmed al-Bayati, a military expert, says that in the event of war, Iraq has “no choice but to receive the strikes.”
Military researcher Ahmed al-Sharifi also believes that the country does not possess “air defense systems” or “deterrence with fighter jets.”
The leadership does not hide this inability. Yahya Rasool, the government’s military spokesman, said the day before yesterday that “Iraqi airspace is not completely secure.”
The Iraqi army is ranked 45th in the world according to the statistics of the American website “Global Fire Power” 2023, which specializes in military and logistical affairs.
In contrast, Israel came in 17th place in the world according to the same website’s indicators.
Ghazi Faisal, head of the Iraqi Center for Strategic Studies, says that “Iraq does not have air defense or attack capabilities, and the contract with South Korea to purchase missile systems does not rise to the level of the Patriot or C-RAM systems.”
The Iraqi military leadership had stated that building an air defense system “needs more time.”
On this basis, Faisal confirms that Iraq will not be able to detect the penetration of Israeli aircraft due to the lack of “advanced radars,” and Israel can use “F-35 stealth aircraft” that are not detected by radars. He
adds, “According to statements by officials, Iraq’s skies cannot do anything in the face of Israeli air attacks, and even the factions do not have advanced capabilities to confront these attacks.”
According to the Global Fire Power website, Iraq has 26 fighter jets, 33 attack aircraft, 16 military transport aircraft, 112 training aircraft, 21 special mission aircraft, and 164 helicopters, including 40 attack helicopters.
In contrast, the main striking force of the Israeli Air Force is the F-16 aircraft, and it also has F-15 fighter jets and American Apache attack helicopters. The
Israeli military aircraft squadrons include 612 aircraft, including 241 fighter jets and 146 helicopters, according to the same website.
The position of the international coalition
assumes, according to the government’s announcement last month, that the coalition forces led by Washington will withdraw from Iraq within the next two years, but during its stay, will it defend Iraq against external threats?
Ghazi Faisal, a former diplomat, says that the United States “will not intervene” because it considers the factions linked to Iran to be “terrorist groups.”
Therefore, according to Faisal, America “is absolved of any support or assistance to the Iraqi government or the Iraqi forces, given that these factions are not part of the Iraqi armed forces.”
He added: “There is a distinction between factions linked to Iran and factions committed to government orders.”[/size]
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