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09/19/2015 (00:01 pm)
[ltr] Report: Iraq war and the economy .. problems and crises [/ltr]
Abdul Khaliq Ali translation
[ltr]Iraq's economy is one of the factors that contribute to the division of the country and the promotion of violence, and lead to civil war and help to enable Daash. Ethnic and sectarian divisions, the pressure of population, religious extremism, foreign countries intervene, weak corrupt government, tyranny, and the whole Ripper political system have contributed to the current level of violence in the failed state for a long time.
It is possible to provide an overview of the complex entanglements between the economy and the rest of the factors that fuel violence in Iraq, and the extent to which deep structural economic problems interfere in Iraq with sectarian and ethnic divisions are Daash help promote and increase tensions between Arabs and Kurds. The study begins by emphasizing the importance of focusing on the reasons why Iraq today faces levels of violence and internal tensions that push him to the division, also focuses on the differences between the economy and the fight against terrorism and the insurgency between traditional econometric development. Does not claim the study that the economy contributed to the violence and problems more than other reasons, but it turns out that there are some important links between the vast problems in the Iraqi economy and governance and population pressure, and between the levels of violence in other failed states in the Middle East such as Libya and Syria and Yemen.
[rtl]كما [/rtl]
It also is clear from the analysis that the Iraqi economy with the fact that ideology and politics major causes of violence in Iraq, the country is facing unusual challenges of the high proportion of young men and women are desperate for the future, work, and marriage opportunities. And that the country's economy and its policies and the social tensions of the population will suffer severe pressure over at least two decades. As the economy have been distorted for a number of reasons, including poor governance in a country dominated by the public sector, and the government's need to buy popular support through appointments and benefits, and the costs of the war, and excessive corruption where it occupies Iraq ranked 170 of 175 among the most corrupt countries by Transparency International the world, and has a very large public sector, where bad management puts the World Bank ranked 156 of 185 among the worst countries in terms of ease of doing business. Also, Iraq's economy Totr in part by being in a state of war or crises related to the war since 1980, and was the last of the conflicts economic impact accumulated cause to restrict the development of the country and the division of the economy and income along sectarian and ethnic lines, and create broad areas cause violence in which divisions and sub-economies.
The study is following the patterns of violence in detail since the US invasion in 2003, which only represents the last stage in the history included a civil war between the central government and the Kurds in the seventies, and the Iranian war - Iraq in the eighties, and the invasion of Kuwait and the Gulf War in 1990 and 1991, and the impact of United Nations sanctions from 1992 to 2003. One of the chapters of the study follows the size of the collapse of the Iraqi military forces in 2003, and the economic impact of the fighting since 2003, and the recovery of Iraqi forces patterns before Daash attack late 2013. This chapter shows the economic burden for the recovery of Iraqi forces and push the current fighting costs, as the central government has not achieved So far progress in the recovery of effective military forces. And chapter also follows the pattern of violence and the emergence of internal divisions between Arabs and Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites, and shows that the impact of Daash is only part of the largest of violence and divisions that have affected a large proportion of the country's population pattern. Also, sectarian and ethnic tensions and fighting caused the division of the country's population to the economies of sub-urban and zonal, what resulted in the problems of injustice and more difficult to achieve national unity, security and stability.
Clear from the study that some battles with Daash has aggravated the problems faced by the Kurds and the Arabs in their agreement on the size and nature of the financing and the Kurdish region in the future. At the same time, the emergence of various militias and ethnic and sectarian forces has exacerbated the problem areas and the participation of political power and oil revenues between Sunnis and Shiites.
After that study looks beyond violence economy to examine the deep structural problems in the economy of Iraq, which does not generate violence and fighting, but they certainly increase the divisions and tensions, and these include:
[rtl]- [/rtl]
Economy oil wealth has created a special kind of "Dutch disease", where according to the CIA that Iraq receives 90% of government revenues and 80% of export earnings from the oil sector.
[rtl]- [/rtl]
The government has a long history of poor budget management generates plans unrealistic, overly ambitious and failure in the implementation of the budget quotas because of the loss of money as a result of corruption and waste, and this will become a bigger problem in the near term due to lower oil export revenues, and the deficit financing growing in ways that are not reliable.
[rtl]- [/rtl]
A huge employment crisis and an ongoing source of the younger generation, and not to create job opportunities for them, and heavy reliance on non-productive employment in the government sector, and the imbalance between the level of employment and share of GDP.
[rtl]- [/rtl]
Youth unemployment exceeding 25%. Agriculture contributes with only 3.3% of GDP, but the proportion of 21.6% of the labor force. The industry (oil to a large extent) constitute 56.6% of the domestic production ratio, but that non-productive industries comprising 21.6% of the labor force.
[rtl]- [/rtl]
Growing sector of state-owned companies on a wide range so that puts a big burden on the economy because of low productivity in the public sector provides 43% of the total working and about 60% of total employment of full-time jobs, where the workers in state enterprises about 20% of the total employment in the public sector in order to produce little of no value.
There are a lot of challenges facing the economic infrastructure and social - most of the war - in the sectors of energy, water and financial and banking, education, nutritional support, medicine, agriculture and others.
It is not possible to identify the many aspects of the problems of Iraq's economic current to be exact, but it is clear that the war worsen as it plays a big role in the division of the country, and that defeat Daash will not end the divisions and pattern of violence in Iraq without more government action and efforts reform than has been planned yet. Reforms announced by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi will not have a significant impact at best, so far at least, and the Iraqi government may pose the same threat to the size of the threat Daash her.
For: the Center for Strategic and International Studies
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
[/ltr]
[ltr] Report: Iraq war and the economy .. problems and crises [/ltr]
Abdul Khaliq Ali translation
[ltr]Iraq's economy is one of the factors that contribute to the division of the country and the promotion of violence, and lead to civil war and help to enable Daash. Ethnic and sectarian divisions, the pressure of population, religious extremism, foreign countries intervene, weak corrupt government, tyranny, and the whole Ripper political system have contributed to the current level of violence in the failed state for a long time.
It is possible to provide an overview of the complex entanglements between the economy and the rest of the factors that fuel violence in Iraq, and the extent to which deep structural economic problems interfere in Iraq with sectarian and ethnic divisions are Daash help promote and increase tensions between Arabs and Kurds. The study begins by emphasizing the importance of focusing on the reasons why Iraq today faces levels of violence and internal tensions that push him to the division, also focuses on the differences between the economy and the fight against terrorism and the insurgency between traditional econometric development. Does not claim the study that the economy contributed to the violence and problems more than other reasons, but it turns out that there are some important links between the vast problems in the Iraqi economy and governance and population pressure, and between the levels of violence in other failed states in the Middle East such as Libya and Syria and Yemen.
[rtl]كما [/rtl]
It also is clear from the analysis that the Iraqi economy with the fact that ideology and politics major causes of violence in Iraq, the country is facing unusual challenges of the high proportion of young men and women are desperate for the future, work, and marriage opportunities. And that the country's economy and its policies and the social tensions of the population will suffer severe pressure over at least two decades. As the economy have been distorted for a number of reasons, including poor governance in a country dominated by the public sector, and the government's need to buy popular support through appointments and benefits, and the costs of the war, and excessive corruption where it occupies Iraq ranked 170 of 175 among the most corrupt countries by Transparency International the world, and has a very large public sector, where bad management puts the World Bank ranked 156 of 185 among the worst countries in terms of ease of doing business. Also, Iraq's economy Totr in part by being in a state of war or crises related to the war since 1980, and was the last of the conflicts economic impact accumulated cause to restrict the development of the country and the division of the economy and income along sectarian and ethnic lines, and create broad areas cause violence in which divisions and sub-economies.
The study is following the patterns of violence in detail since the US invasion in 2003, which only represents the last stage in the history included a civil war between the central government and the Kurds in the seventies, and the Iranian war - Iraq in the eighties, and the invasion of Kuwait and the Gulf War in 1990 and 1991, and the impact of United Nations sanctions from 1992 to 2003. One of the chapters of the study follows the size of the collapse of the Iraqi military forces in 2003, and the economic impact of the fighting since 2003, and the recovery of Iraqi forces patterns before Daash attack late 2013. This chapter shows the economic burden for the recovery of Iraqi forces and push the current fighting costs, as the central government has not achieved So far progress in the recovery of effective military forces. And chapter also follows the pattern of violence and the emergence of internal divisions between Arabs and Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites, and shows that the impact of Daash is only part of the largest of violence and divisions that have affected a large proportion of the country's population pattern. Also, sectarian and ethnic tensions and fighting caused the division of the country's population to the economies of sub-urban and zonal, what resulted in the problems of injustice and more difficult to achieve national unity, security and stability.
Clear from the study that some battles with Daash has aggravated the problems faced by the Kurds and the Arabs in their agreement on the size and nature of the financing and the Kurdish region in the future. At the same time, the emergence of various militias and ethnic and sectarian forces has exacerbated the problem areas and the participation of political power and oil revenues between Sunnis and Shiites.
After that study looks beyond violence economy to examine the deep structural problems in the economy of Iraq, which does not generate violence and fighting, but they certainly increase the divisions and tensions, and these include:
[rtl]- [/rtl]
Economy oil wealth has created a special kind of "Dutch disease", where according to the CIA that Iraq receives 90% of government revenues and 80% of export earnings from the oil sector.
[rtl]- [/rtl]
The government has a long history of poor budget management generates plans unrealistic, overly ambitious and failure in the implementation of the budget quotas because of the loss of money as a result of corruption and waste, and this will become a bigger problem in the near term due to lower oil export revenues, and the deficit financing growing in ways that are not reliable.
[rtl]- [/rtl]
A huge employment crisis and an ongoing source of the younger generation, and not to create job opportunities for them, and heavy reliance on non-productive employment in the government sector, and the imbalance between the level of employment and share of GDP.
[rtl]- [/rtl]
Youth unemployment exceeding 25%. Agriculture contributes with only 3.3% of GDP, but the proportion of 21.6% of the labor force. The industry (oil to a large extent) constitute 56.6% of the domestic production ratio, but that non-productive industries comprising 21.6% of the labor force.
[rtl]- [/rtl]
Growing sector of state-owned companies on a wide range so that puts a big burden on the economy because of low productivity in the public sector provides 43% of the total working and about 60% of total employment of full-time jobs, where the workers in state enterprises about 20% of the total employment in the public sector in order to produce little of no value.
There are a lot of challenges facing the economic infrastructure and social - most of the war - in the sectors of energy, water and financial and banking, education, nutritional support, medicine, agriculture and others.
It is not possible to identify the many aspects of the problems of Iraq's economic current to be exact, but it is clear that the war worsen as it plays a big role in the division of the country, and that defeat Daash will not end the divisions and pattern of violence in Iraq without more government action and efforts reform than has been planned yet. Reforms announced by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi will not have a significant impact at best, so far at least, and the Iraqi government may pose the same threat to the size of the threat Daash her.
For: the Center for Strategic and International Studies
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
[/ltr]
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