[size=32]Sanctions return Tehran to barter and small secret deals
- One Hour Has Passed
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TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's economy has been crippled by Washington's policy of "maximum pressure" through widespread sanctions, coupled with a growing ability to monitor its implementation due to technological development.
Experts are skeptical of Tehran's cynicism and rhetoric about its resilience. They say they have few outlets for barter deals, smuggling and some small secret deals.
Iran's rulers allege they have established a network of merchants, corporations, money exchange bureaus and fund-raisers in other countries to circumvent US banking and financial sanctions.
Reuters quoted a senior official, who asked not to be named, as saying Washington "cannot isolate Iran." If they succeed at the time of our oil sales, we will export textiles, food, petrochemicals, vegetables and everything that comes to mind. ”
"Iran has a lot of experience in living under economic pressure," said Ali Waiz, project manager for Iran at the International Crisis Group. "It has developed trade networks with neighboring countries such as Iraq and Afghanistan. It can also smuggle oil and generate some revenue. ”
The reports confirm that the new sanctions are the most painful in the history of long sanctions against them for decades, especially as they continue to be tightened. The latest was the imposition of sanctions on Iran's central bank last week after the attack on Saudi oil facilities.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) and shipping, Tehran is able to export only 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), compared with about 2.3 million before Washington pulled out of the nuclear deal, down 93 percent.
Although food and medicine have been exempted from sanctions, they have been paralyzed by the inability to deal through the global financial system and Tehran's limited financial resources.
Conservative estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expect Iran's economy to shrink this year by 3.6 percent, as the World Bank sees inflation rising to 31.2 percent this year from around 23.8 percent last year.
But experts say the situation is much worse and that inflation has already exceeded 40 percent, as well as the loss of the toman to about 70 percent of its value since May 2018, which was reflected in a huge rise in the prices of all commodities, including basic food commodities such as bread.
"It is easy for officials to talk about resisting American pressure," Reuters quoted retired teacher Ali Kamali in Tehran as saying. They do not have to worry about rent or rising commodity prices. Prices are rising every day. ”
There is no end in sight to the sanctions, with US President Donald Trump asserting on Tuesday that pressure on Iran would intensify, as speculation rages that Tehran might have to talk to Washington.
Tensions have been heightened by the September 14 attacks on oil sites in Saudi Arabia, which have prompted most of the world, including the European Union, to join Washington and Riyadh in asserting Tehran's responsibility.
"Iran does not have many other sources of income other than oil, so its economy is in a state of imbalance," said Chuck Frayelich, a fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
Financial sanctions have severely impacted banks, institutions, individuals and front companies in countries such as Turkey and Qatar.
Iran has used the barter system to circumvent these sanctions in the past, but the scope of its use has increased significantly this time, especially with neighboring countries, including Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan.
“We are a country with a long border with many countries,” said another senior Iranian official. "If you sell anything below its market price, you can find dozens of buyers ... Liquid cash can be transported by land, sea or even through a third country."
He said he had sold "tons of goods" in recent months and traveled to Dubai three times a month to "get the job done."
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Reuters said that she recently attended a meeting in Istanbul between 3 Iranian and foreign traders traders to discuss deals for the export of non - oil materials, and that it resulted in the conclusion of two deals worth about two billion dollars after hours of talks and several calls with Tehran to get guidance on the price and location of delivery.
Reuters said that she recently attended a meeting in Istanbul between 3 Iranian and foreign traders traders to discuss deals for the export of non - oil materials, and that it resulted in the conclusion of two deals worth about two billion dollars after hours of talks and several calls with Tehran to get guidance on the price and location of delivery.
"There is no insurance, no banks, only liquid cash," said one Iranian who runs a government-linked import-export company.
Most of Iran's non-oil exports come from the petrochemical industry, whose revenues in the previous Persian year ended in March amounted to more than $ 10 billion.
Iran is still able to export shipments of petrochemicals and liquefied petroleum gas to Asia, including China and Malaysia, but Washington continues to monitor and close those ports.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced yesterday sanctions against Chinese companies for "breaching the American embargo" and marked the start of Trump's threat to the UN General Assembly to tighten sanctions if Tehran did not change its "threatening behavior."
"We tell China and all countries you should know that we will impose sanctions for any breach of our sanctions," he said, but did not identify the companies or people targeted by the sanctions, which are added to a long list of sanctions against the Iranian economy.
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