The expected Kurdistan government.. between accelerating events and complex scenarios - Urgent
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Baghdad Today - Sulaymaniyah
Kurdish academic at the University of Sulaymaniyah, Hakim Abdul Karim, confirmed today, Monday (November 4, 2024), that the accelerating events in the region require the formation of a rapid government within the Kurdistan Region.
Abdul Karim said in an interview with "Baghdad Today" that "there are two options for forming the government, either the government is formed by the Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union, and this option will be easy if they agree."
He added, "The difficulty in this scenario is how to distribute positions between the two parties, and we believe that the Patriotic Union wants to take over the presidency of the region."
He pointed out that "the second scenario is an alliance between the Democratic Party and the New Generation Movement to form the majority and exclude the National Union. This option is weak and cannot be implemented on the ground for various reasons."
Political analyst Azad Marouf confirmed on Wednesday (October 23, 2024), in an interview with Baghdad Today, that “the two major parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union, will agree among themselves to form the government and will share the main positions in the region.”
He added, "The issue may be delayed for months, but in the end the government will not be formed except with the presence of the two parties, because any government in the region cannot manage Sulaymaniyah and Halabja if the Patriotic Union does not participate in the government."
Marouf pointed out that "everything that was said in the election campaigns is over, and we will see rapprochement between the two parties and the media war will ease in the coming period."
In turn, political researcher Ali Ibrahim confirmed on Tuesday (October 29, 2024) that it is expected that regional countries will have a major influence on the path of forming the next Kurdistan government for many reasons.
“The reasons are related to its national security and economic interests,” Ibrahim told Baghdad Today, adding: “Turkey, for example, seeks to ensure that the government in the region does not pose a threat to its security, especially with regard to Kurdish movements within its borders such as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. Therefore, it prefers the Kurdistan Democratic Party to have the greatest influence because it is less in conflict with its policies, while it views the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan with suspicion.”
“Iran shares these concerns with Turkey, as it also seeks to ensure that the Kurdistan government does not support Kurdish movements inside Iran,” he added, adding that “both countries are keen for the new government to guarantee their national security, especially with the Kurdish issue, which they consider a potential threat at any time.”
“In addition to security concerns, Turkey and Iran are seeking to secure a larger share of the Iraqi market, which is a consumer market and provides many job opportunities in both countries,” the political researcher said, adding that “these two countries may try to influence the formation of the government to ensure that the Kurdistan government does not conflict with their economic interests.”
He continued, "There is also a higher goal that the two countries agree on, which is to try to destabilize the region to prevent it from becoming a model to be emulated by the Kurds in both Turkey and Iran, and they seek to show that Kurdish rule is unsuccessful, and that linking with the large central state is better for the Kurds."
Ibrahim concluded his statement by pointing out that "the efforts of these two countries are evident in their attempts to reintegrate the region with Iraq and portray it as functionally ineffective."
The Kurdistan Democratic Party topped the preliminary results of the Kurdistan Regional Parliament elections, according to the Election Commission.
According to a census conducted by Baghdad Today on Monday (October 21, 2024), based on the results published by the commission, the preliminary results indicate that the Democratic Party won 39 seats, the Patriotic Union won 23 seats, the New Generation Movement won 15 seats, the Islamic Union won 7 seats, the Islamic Justice Group won 3 seats, the Kurdistan Components won 5 seats, the People's Front won 2 seats, the Position won 4 seats, the Change Movement won one seat, and the Kurdistan Alliance won one seat as well. According to the preliminary results, no bloc was able to reach a numerical majority of 51 seats.
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