An international report charts the future of global oil demand
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Economy News _ Baghdad
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Economy News _ Baghdad
The International Energy Agency said on Monday that global demand for fossil fuels is expected to peak by 2030 as more electric cars emerge and the Chinese economy grows more slowly and shifts towards cleaner energy, undermining the rationale for any increase in demand for it.
The report by the International Energy Agency, which advises industrialized nations, contradicts the view of oil producer group the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which expects oil demand to rise long after 2030 and calls for trillions of dollars to be invested in new investments in the oil sector.
In its annual World Energy Outlook released on Tuesday, the International Energy Agency said peak demand for oil, natural gas and coal was evident this decade in its scenario based on governments' current policies - the first time this has happened.
“The transition to clean energy is happening around the world and cannot be stopped,” said Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency. “It is not a question of ‘if’, it is just a question of ‘when’ – and the sooner the better for all of us.”
However, the IEA also said that as things stand, demand for fossil fuels is expected to remain too high to remain within reach of the Paris Agreement goal of limiting the rise in global average temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
“This not only threatens to exacerbate climate impacts after a year of record heat, but also undermines the security of the energy system, which was built for a cooler world with fewer extreme weather events,” the agency said in a statement.
By 2030, the International Energy Agency expects there will be nearly 10 times as many electric cars on the road worldwide, and has cited pro-clean energy policies in key markets as influencing future fossil fuel demand.
For example, the International Energy Agency now expects 50% of new vehicle registrations in the United States to be electric in 2030, up from 12% in its forecast two years ago, largely due to the US inflation-reducing law.
The IEA also sees China's role as a major source of variability in energy demand growth.
The report showed that while China in the past decade accounted for nearly two-thirds of the increase in global oil use, the momentum behind its economic growth is waning and the country has become a “clean energy powerhouse,” adding more than half of global electricity production. Car sales in 2022 were in China.
The IEA said the key to an orderly transition is increased investment in all aspects of the clean energy system, not in fossil fuels.
“The end of the era of fossil fuel growth does not mean the end of investment in fossil fuels, but it undermines the rationale for any increase in spending,” the IEA report said.
An OPEC report earlier this month said calls to halt investments in new oil projects were “misleading” and “could lead to energy and economic chaos.”
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